Dylan Cease

[nvpacchi]

A few important things to consider,

Cease lost a tick on his fastball (all his pitches as a matter of fact) year over year 96.8 down to 95.6 is a noticeable drop.  Was he hurt and pitching through it?  Does he get his velo back next season - the 97 MPH Cease is a lot more intriguing than the 95.5 MPH Cease

Also, for a guy that has such a good slider, and great stuff in general, is an O's analytics department able to get more out of him than a perceived mediocre analytics dept in Chicago?  The stuff is already very good, its not like teaching him a cutter or a changeup is a good use of time for a guy that already strikes out close to 30% of hitters.  More succinctly- what can they teach him that the ChiSox weren't, beyond better command (which sounds a lot tougher than tweaking an arsenal).

Obviously for the right price you make a deal, it just comes down to what Chicago wants against strong competition for his services.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

We all heard Elias when he said, while being interviewed at the break, that he "Had a deal in place, but it fell through last minute. Combine that with the back and forth of Cease being traded out of Chicago, makes me think it was for him. 2 years remaining. Expected salary 8+million this year in Arb. Bora$$ client.

1) Do you want Cease? Is he "the guy"?

2) What will it take to get him?

3) Will Cowser/Norby/Povich get him?

I missed that. Elias said he had a deal in place for Cease, or Chicago had a deal with someone else? Is there a link? 

I think Cowser for Cease would be a good general framework but it's starting to look like his 2022 was an outlier. I don't think I'd do it. 

If they would do Norby, yes. 

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Would the WS have interest in guys like Mountcastle and Kremer?

I doubt it.  If they're giving up Cease (and/or Roberts), they are essentially saying they aren't trying to improve for 2024.  I think they'll want prospects.

Other teams might want Mounty and Kremer for a MLB-level talent.  CLE and SEA come to mind as needing offense and an arm to replace whoever they trade us.  Probably others too.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I missed that. Elias said he had a deal in place for Cease, or Chicago had a deal with someone else? Is there a link? 

I think Cowser for Cease would be a good general framework but it's starting to look like his 2022 was an outlier. I don't think I'd do it. 

If they would do Norby, yes. 

I look at Cease as a better version of Kyle Gibson with the potential to be an elite starter. I don't what kind of trade package that means to get him, but he is a player I'm not taking the risk of an overpay.

I do think the Orioles analytics team can improve what Cease does on the mound, but if the White Sox are asking for a return based on the 2022 Cease then forget it.

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

A few important things to consider,

Cease lost a tick on his fastball (all his pitches as a matter of fact) year over year 96.8 down to 95.6 is a noticeable drop.  Was he hurt and pitching through it?  Does he get his velo back next season - the 97 MPH Cease is a lot more intriguing than the 95.5 MPH Cease

Also, for a guy that has such a good slider, and great stuff in general, is an O's analytics department able to get more out of him than a perceived mediocre analytics dept in Chicago?  The stuff is already very good, its not like teaching him a cutter or a changeup is a good use of time for a guy that already strikes out close to 30% of hitters.  More succinctly- what can they teach him that the ChiSox weren't, beyond better command (which sounds a lot tougher than tweaking an arsenal).

Obviously for the right price you make a deal, it just comes down to what Chicago wants against strong competition for his services.

Pitch mix?  Trusting Waltimore to save you from hanging a breaking pitch?

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Reasonable framework to you.   You just need the White Sox to agree that it’s reasonable.  I’m just saying what I think it would take.

I don’t think you’re far off.   

[Osornot]

Somehow, Someway there must be a risk-taking trade. If it's Cease (not a big fan) what we believe is an overpay now may turn into a bargain... or not. The worst thing we can do is not do anything.  The longer our prospects linger in the minors the more other teams may think there is a reason why they are not in the majors, i.e., great in AAA but may never be ready for primetime.  I would most definitely use that in a negotiation whether true or not.

[Osornot]

51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Reasonable framework to you.   You just need the White Sox to agree that it’s reasonable.  I’m just saying what I think it would take.

I agree. 

[Frobby]

Would you rather sign Lucas Giolito than trade two good prospects for Cease?  I think both have unrealized potential.  

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

We all heard Elias when he said, while being interviewed at the break, that he "Had a deal in place, but it fell through last minute. Combine that with the back and forth of Cease being traded out of Chicago, makes me think it was for him. 2 years remaining. Expected salary 8+million this year in Arb. Bora$$ client.

1) Do you want Cease? Is he "the guy"?

2) What will it take to get him?

3) Will Cowser/Norby/Povich get him?

If it would get him for that, I'd make that trade right now.

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Would you rather sign Lucas Giolito than trade two good prospects for Cease?  I think both have unrealized potential.  

I'm not sure what happened to Giolito.   If Elias/Sig & Co. think they can "fix" him, I wouldn't mind an incentive-laden deal for him, but I wouldn't put all my apples in that basket.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I doubt it.  If they're giving up Cease (and/or Roberts), they are essentially saying they aren't trying to improve for 2024.  I think they'll want prospects.

Other teams might want Mounty and Kremer for a MLB-level talent.  CLE and SEA come to mind as needing offense and an arm to replace whoever they trade us.  Probably others too.

There is nothing you say here that I disagree with but I think we tend to underestimate the desire for teams, even rebuilding ones, to get back some ML pieces in deals like this.

Even the Os did it for Bedard. I don’t think it’s that unusual and these guys aren’t expensive and have service time left. 
 

Helping to keep your team sort of respectable while in a rebuild may be important to some teams, especially in a market like Chicago where the WS are always playing second fiddle to the Cubs.

But it could also be a situation where a 3 team deal is involved here and we send those pieces elsewhere and those teams send the WS additional prospects, as you are suggesting above.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

None of those were overall #2 draft picks.

I also don't think Finley is Finley with the current drug testing.

Harnish, yea, you can give up a Harnish.

Wait, are you telling me a guy who with a career .278/.331/.392/.723 with 47 homers in 3728 PAs, who suddenly, at the age of 31-39 years old, then slashed .274/.340/.489/.829 with 238 home runs in 5709 PAs, might be tainted? 

Nah. Outside of the steroid era we have lots of players who suddenly became a much powerful hitter from 31-39 years old then they were from 23-30.      

[dystopia]

I’m sick of hearing about this guy. 
 

He’s mid, move on. 

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, are you telling me a guy who with a career .278/.331/.392/.723 with 47 homers in 3728 PAs, who suddenly, at the age of 31-39 years old, then slashed .274/.340/.489/.829 with 238 home runs in 5709 PAs, might be tainted? 

Nah. Outside of the steroid era we have lots of players who suddenly became a much powerful hitter from 31-39 years old then they were from 23-30.      

One pre-steroid eraguy who kind of stands out is Willie Stargell.  165 homers through age 29, 310 after age 30.