What do you think Elias sees happening with Wells, Hall, McDermott, Johnson and Povich?

[ChosenOne21]

I think we'd be pretty lucky if one out of Hall, McDermott, Povich, Johnson ends up being a solid MLB starter, and very lucky if they start being one this upcoming season

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

My guess  on Means is 150 IP after watching how they used GRod this year.

The data doesn't appear to support your guess. From what I could tell in a brief review of the literature, the median number of IP one year after TJ is 130. However the spread is quite wide. 

https://globalsportmatters.com/health/2019/07/09/mixed-results-await-pitchers-after-tommy-john-surgery/

Examples of SP one year after TJS:

Tyler Glasnow.  120 IP in 2023

Mike Clevenger. 114 IP in 2022

Johnny Cueto.   63 IP 2020, 114 IP 2021

It's possible he could throw 150 IP in 2024 but I wouldn't plan on it. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The data doesn't appear to support your guess. From what I could tell in a brief review of the literature, the median number of IP one year after TJ is 130. However the spread is quite wide. 

https://globalsportmatters.com/health/2019/07/09/mixed-results-await-pitchers-after-tommy-john-surgery/

Examples of SP one year after TJS:

Tyler Glasnow.  120 IP in 2023

Mike Clevenger. 114 IP in 2022

Johnny Cueto.   63 IP 2020, 114 IP 2021

It's possible he could throw 150 IP in 2024 but I wouldn't plan on it. 

Strasburg threw 159 after TJ.  Bedard threw 137.  Cobb threw 179.   It’s all over the lot.   But I wouldn’t plan on more than 130 out of Means.  If they get more, great, but they need to assume he won’t.

[Aristotelian]

Hall and Wells: high leverage bullpen.

McDermott: could replace Fuji/Baumann role in '24.

Povich/Johnson: see how they perform. Winner could replace Means.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, oriole said:

That’s the nicest way I’ve ever had someone disagree with me here on the OH. Lol

 

Its worth mentioning that I think an above average option for the 6th starter is important considering Means is unlikely to have a ton of innings and Rodriguez and Bradish are still very early in their careers and it’s still hard for me trust that they can be depended on. Plus, past Kremer and the drop off of SP quality is severe. You’d have to lean on rookies and that’s a bad spot to be in. 
 

Kremer is a good 5th starter on a good team but he’s a great 6th starter on a great team. I want them to be a great team. They’ve got the flexibility and the means to get 2 extra starters. 

They had to fix Irvin in the 1st half but in the 2nd half he had a 3.40 ERA.   I see him has he 6th man until McDermott is ready.   I would not be surprised if Wells got some starts before 2024 is over.

[wildcard]

I think the ideal starter addition for Elias would be a one year contract that is better quality starter than Kremer.   I am not saying Elias will find that starter.

I think with the pitchers mentioned in the title there is enough potential that one of them is likely ready to join the rotation in 2025.

Edited November 5, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think the ideal starter addition for Elias would be a one year contract that is better quality starter than Kremer.   I am not saying Elias will find that starter.

I think with the pitchers mentioned in the title there is enough potential that one of them is likely ready to join the rotation in 2025.

It’s very tough to get someone better than Kremer on a one year deal.  I think you’re better off getting the best guy you can on a three year deal.  If you have a surplus in 2025 because of that, you can always trade someone off.  

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s very tough to get someone better than Kremer on a one year deal.  I think you’re better off getting the best guy you can on a three year deal.  If you have a surplus in 2025 because of that, you can always trade someone off.  

Not ideal but effective.

[Billy F-Face3]

I see Hall getting stretch out in spring training and him getting an opportunity in the starting rotation. Then they will see how things go. If it works out, than that is amazing for the organization. And if he doesn't pan out as a starter, than I think he is considered in a relief closing role. But the goal for Hall's development has always to be a quality left handed starter in the starting rotation.

McDermott and Povich will probably make their Major League debut in 2024 mid way through the season sometime. In what role? I don't know.  But Tyler Wells can't make it through an entire season as a starter. And Means is probably on an innings limit in returning from his surgery.  So there are potential ways for Povich and McDermott to contribute.

I think Wells could be most effective in a middle relief role. I wouldn't suggest him being a closer because he's a fly ball pitcher and too many things can go wrong when there aren't any more innings to play if some batter pops one over the fence.

Johnson, like Means, has to prove he can handle the workload of starting before the team hitches their wagon to him and tries to count on him as a reliable workhorse.

[Malike]

9 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I think we'd be pretty lucky if one out of Hall, McDermott, Povich, Johnson ends up being a solid MLB starter, and very lucky if they start being one this upcoming season

This same argument should be said with all the bats in MiL waiting too. The odds are overwhelming against everyone panning out.

[wildcard]

Right now I would say that Wells is in the starting rotation.  There is hope that Elias will be able to add a starter that is better than Wells but that is yet to be seen.

The best bet is that FA starting pitching prices will go through the roof as they normally do.  Contracts will be a years longer than the O's want and  salary per year will rise passed what O's want to pay.

Trading O's prospects will be giving up 6 years of control for one or two years of a starter or experienced reliever.   That will make Elias' stomach muscles tighten.

Elias will not want to trade players that contributed to a 101 win season.

Have to wait to see how it turns out but internal solutions become more attractive as the off season discussions advance.

Edited November 6, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

We should add 2 starters and trade Kremer when he has a trade value that is likely the highest it will ever be.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[CP0861]

I don't see how Johnson can be in any of Elias' plans over the next 2 seasons. There are too many variables involved for him to be part of any plan. Hopefully, he'll be a bonus piece some day, but he has a long way to go to contribute as a starter.

He's thrown a total of 130 innings in the last 3 years combined (4 counting 2020), and almost all of them were back in low A in 2021. He's also newer to pitching and has never built any innings....and that was BEFORE TJ surgery. He threw 10 innings last year and 27 the year before. He absolutely will not be a factor in 2024.

 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We need to add 2 starters and trade Kremer when he has a trade value that is likely the highest it will ever be.

I’m not sure what Kremers trade value is.  It’s probably okay but nothing special.  Sometimes it seems you want to trade just to trade.

Here you have a 27 yo pitcher who progressed from 132 to 172 innings and did a good job overall.   He might not ever be more than a 4th starter but I’ll take a young, inexpensive 4th starter who just finished his first complete season in the majors.  Sometimes players get better.   For a pitcher like Kremer just having that first full season under his belt or possibly improving the consistency on his changeup puts him in line for a good run.

Edited November 6, 2023 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

I don't see how Johnson can be in any of Elias' plans over the next 2 seasons. There are too many variables involved for him to be part of any plan. Hopefully, he'll be a bonus piece some day, but he has a long way to go to contribute as a starter.

He's thrown a total of 130 innings in the last 3 years combined (4 counting 2020), and almost all of them were back in low A in 2021. He's also newer to pitching and has never built any innings....and that was BEFORE TJ surgery. He threw 10 innings last year and 27 the year before. He absolutely will not be a factor in 2024.

 

Well I disagree that he can’t be a factor in 2024 but that factor will likely only be in the pen towards the end of the year if they need another arm and he’s pitching well. 
 

Otherwise, I agree with what you are saying here.