Dean Kremer: Underrated? Overrated?

[SilentJames]

18 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think he is what he is.

yeah. I think Dean is an overall average pitcher that can show flashes and streaks of brilliance but ultimately can be penciled in for a real clunker of a start every once in awhile. 

I think he is a fine guy to have in a rotation, but he might also be the type of "guy," that could be packaged in the right trade. 

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Almost by definition, since his ERA+ was 100.  

That’s solid in the regular season for a #3/4.  But game 3 in a playoff series?  That’s why he’s fine in the #4/5 spots for a contender.

[MikeAD]

He should be the long man in the bullpen and a spot starter.  If there aren't five better pitchers on Opening Day, that won't be the case, but the baseline should be to make sure there are 5 MLB pitchers so he doesn't have to be in the rotation.  

[wildcard]

32 starts, 172 IP, ERA over that last to years under 4.00.   At a 740K salary.    He would be hard to replace.  At age 28 next year I don't expect improvement.   What he is doing is valuable to the O's.

[Aristotelian]

About properly rated. He's a notch better than average and stays healthy. Perhaps not someone I would want starting a do or die playoff game. Kind of a Ramon Urias of pitchers, a solid asset as long as he is cheap. 

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think he is what he is.

Profound.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What was the average ERA+ for 4th and 5th starters this year?  Any site tracking that?

It’s tricky, since it depends how you define the terms, but I will give it a shot.  

First of all, it’s amazing how few pitchers actually pitch a decent number of games to even call them the 4th or 5th starter.  There’s only 143 starters who made 15 starts, and only 141 who threw 90+ innings.   So let’s use 90+ innings as our threshold.  Among those, the 90th best ERA+ is exactly 100, so that’s the bottom no. 3.   An average 4 (no. 105) is about 95.  A borderline 4/5 is about 84.   And a lot of these 5’s below 84 are being shuffled in and out of the rotation.  

We had Bradish 146, Wells 113, Kremer 100, Rodriguez 95, Gibson 87.   Basically, that’s a strong no. 1, a mid-level no. 2, a borderline 3/4, a solid 4, and a weak 4.   Nobody really in the no. 5 category.  And, I’d bet those five threw a lot more innings than most teams’ top 5 guys did.  Only 44 pitchers threw enough innings to qualify, and we had three.  All 5 of our starters threw at least 118.2 innings, and only 103 major league pitchers did that.  

Bottom line, almost all teams would be very happy to have Kremer as their no. 4, and there are plenty who’d be happy with him at no. 3 considering how many innings he threw.   

Edited November 6, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s tricky, since it depends how you define the terms, but I will give it a shot.  

First of all, it’s amazing how few pitchers actually pitch a decent number of games to even call them the 4th or 5th starter.  There’s only 143 starters who made 15 starts, and only 141 who threw 90+ innings.   So let’s use 90+ innings as our threshold.  Among those, the 90th best ERA+ is exactly 100, so that’s the bottom no. 3.   An average 4 (no. 105) is about 95.  A borderline 4/5 is about 84.   And a lot of these 5’s below 84 are being shuffled in and out of the rotation.  

We had Bradish 146, Wells 113, Kremer 100, Rodriguez 95, Gibson 87.   Basically, that’s a strong no. 1, a mid-level no. 2, a borderline 3/4, a solid 4, and a weak 4.   Nobody really in the no. 5 category.  And, I’d bet those five threw a lot more innings than most teams’ top 5 guys did.  Only 44 pitchers threw enough innings to qualify, and we had three.  All 5 of our starters threw at least 118.2 innings, and only 103 major league pitchers did that.  

Bottom line, almost all teams would be very happy to have Kremer as their no. 4, and there are plenty who’d be happy with him at no. 3 considering how many innings he threw.   

This is about what I thought.

I remember years ago the average 4th starter had like a 4.5-4.7ish ERA and the average 5th starter was over 5.  I’m sure those numbers have come down (for many reasons) but I would still think that the on the field Kremer production would be a #3 type guy.

In that regards, I think many underrate him.

My issue is more about what I think he will be vs what he has been.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I think he is what he is.

I think Kremer is a pitcher that just finished his first full season in the bigs. Last year he only pitched around 125 innings. So I'd expect to see some maturity and improvement in his secondary stuff. I will say hes been awfully good in streaks both years. If the improvement in his secondary stuff can help shorten the valleys that would lead to a better overall and more consistent pitcher

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is about what I thought.

I remember years ago the average 4th starter had like a 4.5-4.7ish ERA and the average 5th starter was over 5.  I’m sure those numbers have come down (for many reasons) but I would still think that the on the field Kremer production would be a #3 type guy.

In that regards, I think many underrate him.

My issue is more about what I think he will be vs what he has been.

I'll try to paraphrase what I really think you're saying/thinking...

We don't need to sign a Gibson/Lyles guy because Kremer fits that profile. He's good, but should be slot into that backend of the rotation spot. We should be looking to add a solid top 3 pitcher. Someone who has the stuff to potentially dominate in the playoffs.

That's what I think you're saying and I think it makes a lot of sense. If Bradish and GRod had one more dog running with them, coupled with some experience, we'd be tough to beat.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

32 starts, 172 IP, ERA over that last to years under 4.00.   At a 740K salary.    He would be hard to replace.  At age 28 next year I don't expect improvement.   What he is doing is valuable to the O's.

I feel like there's a profile of pitchers who age well. They do so with better command and better movement on their pitches. They pitch. 

I'm not sure Kremer will be that type of guy. He could have already peaked for sure, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to think he can still improve. Not at all.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'll try to paraphrase what I really think you're saying/thinking...

We don't need to sign a Gibson/Lyles guy because Kremer fits that profile. He's good, but should be slot into that backend of the rotation spot. We should be looking to add a solid top 3 pitcher. Someone who has the stuff to potentially dominate in the playoffs.

That's what I think you're saying and I think it makes a lot of sense. If Bradish and GRod had one more dog running with them, coupled with some experience, we'd be tough to beat.

I want 2 starters..someone who is what you are describing and someone who I think can be what you are describing.  Ie, a young cost controlled pitcher with good upside that is ML ready.

Put it another way…right now, do you want Kremer or Wells or any of the other young starters (not including GRod or Bradish) starting postseason games?  I know I don’t.  I don’t even know if I want Means starting one..at least not until I see more of him post TJ surgery.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I feel like there's a profile of pitchers who age well. They do so with better command and better movement on their pitches. They pitch. 

I'm not sure Kremer will be that type of guy. He could have already peaked for sure, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to think he can still improve. Not at all.

He could.  I don't expect it.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I want 2 starters..someone who is what you are describing and someone who I think can be what you are describing.  Ie, a young cost controlled pitcher with good upside that is ML ready.

Put it another way…right now, do you want Kremer or Wells or any of the other young starters (not including GRod or Bradish) starting postseason games?  I know I don’t.  I don’t even know if I want Means starting one..at least not until I see more of him post TJ surgery.

I'd be very satisfied if our choice for a game 4 starter was between a healthy Wells, Means or Kremer...or a further developed Hall, McDermott or Povich. Teams have even thrown worse out there than Irvin. 

I think we need 1 impact starter plus some bullpen help.

[LookinUp]

Caveat...I'm talking about needing 1 for opening day. You can always try to add another at the trade deadline if the plan isn't working.