Who are the 2023 Orioles #9 and #10 prospects?

[Tony-OH]

Starting on Monday, we'll start releasing the top 30 prospects start with the top ten backwards from ten.

Who are the 2023 Orioles #9 and #10 prospects?

[Frobby]

Looking at how the power rankings ended:

7. Bradfield

8. Beavers 

9. Willems

10. McDermott

11. Hall

12. Horvath

Hall isn’t eligible, Willems isn’t listed.  Norby and Tavera were well down the list. So, even knowing that the power rankings aren’t done that carefully and are partly a measure of who’s hot, I’ll guess McDermott and Horvath here.

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

Tony, are you counting guys like Ortiz, Cowser and Kjerstad as prospects still? Or are you throwing them out because they saw ML time? 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Looking at how the power rankings ended:

7. Bradfield

8. Beavers 

9. Willems

10. McDermott

11. Hall

12. Horvath

Hall isn’t eligible, Willems isn’t listed.  Norby and Tavera were well down the list. So, even knowing that the power rankings aren’t done that carefully and are partly a measure of who’s hot, I’ll guess McDermott and Horvath here.

 

 

 

Horvath vs Norby is interesting. Norby is only 1 year older and has obviously done a lot in his career and some have had him as a top 100 guy or a borderline top 100 guy.

The defense holds him back and Horvath had a really nice debut.

Assuming the 3 I asked about our eligible for this list, that gives us those 3, Holliday, mayo, Basallo, Bradfield, Willems and Beavers. I think most would assume that all of them will be in the top 10. If that’s true (and maybe it’s not), that means only one of McDermott, Norby or Horvath can be in the top 10.

So unless someone unexpected is falling outside the top 10, the answer here has to be Beavers and Norby but I would expect Beavers to be a little higher, so it makes me think that Willems or Bradfield could be 11th.

[RZNJ]

I have Bradfield at #9 so that’s the option I took.  You probably don’t have Tavera at 10 but that was my pick.

[btdart20]

Beavers and Bradfield will be higher.  Tavera is in the discussion, but he's paired with Bradfield. 

I landed between Norby, McDermott, and Horvath.  I like Horvath's upside the most and Norby's floor seems the highest.  McDermott's got a bit of the Hall-vibe.  

I voted McDermott/Horvath, but now I'm second-guessing myself and thinking it's Horvath/Norby as I type this out...

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Horvath vs Norby is interesting. Norby is only 1 year older and has obviously done a lot in his career and some have had him as a top 100 guy or a borderline top 100 guy.

The defense holds him back and Horvath had a really nice debut.

Assuming the 3 I asked about our eligible for this list, that gives us those 3, Holliday, mayo, Basallo, Bradfield, Willems and Beavers. I think most would assume that all of them will be in the top 10. If that’s true (and maybe it’s not), that means only one of McDermott, Norby or Horvath can be in the top 10.

So unless someone unexpected is falling outside the top 10, the answer here has to be Beavers and Norby but I would expect Beavers to be a little higher, so it makes me think that Willems or Bradfield could be 11th.

I’ve never had the sense Tony was that high on Willems, even though he did move up to 9 in the power rankings.  I’m betting he’s the odd man out.  

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never had the sense Tony was that high on Willems, even though he did move up to 9 in the power rankings.  I’m betting he’s the odd man out.  

I could see that especially since he wasn’t that great moving to Aberdeen but I remember Tony with some praise of him this year and the exit velos are great…plus the age.

I think it’s fair to leave him off the top 10. If that’s the case, then I would say it’s between McDermott and Horvath/norby…I think I give the slight edge to Norby there.  Tony loves to ask the question, who would I rather have in the organization?

Did Horvath show enough in a SSS to say he prefers him over Norby? It’s really close imo. Although I guess he could say he prefers both over McDermott because McDermott has that reliever profile in all likelihood.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never had the sense Tony was that high on Willems, even though he did move up to 9 in the power rankings.  I’m betting he’s the odd man out.  

Willems really tailed off at Aberdeen.  I’m surprised he wound up #9 on the PR but I do think you’re right about him not being in the mix here.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I could see that especially since he wasn’t they great moving to Aberdeen but I remember Tony with some praise of him this year and the exit velos are great…plus the age.

I think it’s fair to leave him off the top 10. If that’s the case, then I would say it’s between McDermott and Horvath/norby…I think I give the slight edge to Norby there.  Tony loves to ask the question, who would I rather have in the organization?

Did Horvath show enough in a SSS to say he prefers him over Norby? It’s really close imo. Although I guess he could say he prefers both over McDermott because McDermott has that reliever profile in all likelihood.

Personally, I’d have Norby over Horvath at this early stage of Horvath’s career.  But, the power rankings make me think Tony will have Horvath here.   By the way, a couple of months ago was listening to an interview with Aram Leighton, prospect guru of the “Just Baseball” podcast, and he was asked who in the O’s organization might emerge as a top prospect in 2024, and he singled out Horvath.  

Funny thing, when I first saw “Horvath” in the poll my mind immediately went to Nick Horvath, our 25th round pick from 2018.  I was wondering what he was doing on this list!
 

[Vandy]

In general I'd be shocked if Willems was in the top 10 as I think he should profile closer to back end of the top 20. Injuries did not help but he crashed hard offensively at ABD and the bat is going to have to carry his prospect status. Fun, easy to root for guy but 100 productive ABs at Delmarva at age 19 aren't enough to place him at the top of the tier which includes guys like Beavers, Norby, McDermott, Povich, Horvath, Seth Johnson, Wagner, Fabian, and perhaps 1-2 of the toolsy international players who played well in the FCL. 

Speaking of international players, guys like Tavera, Leandro Arias, Luis Almeyda, and Josh Liranzo will be fun to track and with their tools and current prospect graduations could vault themselves into the back end of the top ten next year. As it stands now I think #10 would be a little too cute for Tavera as there are too many guys with the combination of performance and upside in the upper minors I'd prefer at this point. Plus I think arguments could be made for Bradfield in the 6-8 range which leaves me out on option 2. 

Norby had a solid year and really came on later in the season. I believe in the bat but Horvath also comes with a solid offensive package and the athleticism to likely not be a burden at 2nd/3rd/OF. That puts him ahead of Norby for me, so unless one of Ortiz/Cowser/Bradfield/Beavers aren't in the top 10 that eliminates the last option.

On my personal list I'd go with #9 Horvath and #10 McDermott, but ultimately think arguments could be made for Horvath, Norby, McDermott, and Povich in any order in the 9-12 range so I'll go with option 4 as it's closest to my preference. 

[LookinUp]

Several thoughts...

1. I think the top ~7 is pretty clear, in some order. Holliday, Mayo, Basallo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Bradfield, Cowser.

2. I opted for experience after them. I love Beavers, Norby finished strong, McDermott is looking good, Povich close also. So I voted for Norby and McDermott in this poll. All are AA-AAA.

3. I don't think Willems is in this neighborhood, though he's a good one to watch. Seth Johnson too, for very different reasons.

4. I could definitely see Tony having Tavera or Horvath as his answer. He likes to identify a helium guy and place him at the back end of his top 10. I didn't personally because I sided with experience, but I totally get the approach.

5. Yet again, we'll have a very interesting 9-20 prospect list. Horvath, Tavera, pitchers we just drafted, international guys. Fun people to follow. They haven't necessarily established themselves yet, but could be household names by this time next year.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Several thoughts...

1. I think the top ~7 is pretty clear, in some order. Holliday, Mayo, Basallo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Bradfield, Cowser.

I don’t think Bradfield is that obviously in the top 7.   .038 ISO as a pro.   Obviously it’s a small sample size, but that’s enough for me to see a clear dividing line between the other 6 names and the tier Bradfield is in for now.  

[LookinUp]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Bradfield is that obviously in the top 7.   .038 ISO as a pro.   Obviously it’s a small sample size, but that’s enough for me to see a clear dividing line between the other 6 names and the tier Bradfield is in for now.  

Fair enough. I assumed he would be right there at 7, but if you told me Tony prefers Beavers or McDermott, or even Povich, I wouldn't be shocked. 

[jamalshw]

I honestly don't know. I have Norby and Bradfield above the others in my mind. There's a Holliday, Mayo, Basallo tier for me, then a Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz tier. After that, I have Norby and Bradfield ahead of the remaining so they're my 7-8 (though I'm almost certainly wrong as I always am). 

With that in mind, I voted McDermott and Horvath. 

Given Norby appears in three of the options, though, I kinda expect him to be in this group given the defensive concerns and the upside of some of the others, but I can't discount the fact his floor is so high.