Elias: Os looking for a top half of the rotation starter and closer

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There will be consideration about losing a 2nd round pick.   Whether he does it or not.

No one said there won’t be consideration.  I just described  scenario where there is consideration for different targets.

But that’s different than him not doing something because of it, which is what you said.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Try to tell Elias that giving up a 2nd round pick is not painful.  I doubt he would agree.  He is all about the draft and keeping the prospect pipeline flowing.

I love the way you proclaim what Elias is thinking.  

Building up a team from the bottom is one thing.  You hoard draft picks in that situation.  

Trying to take your team from very good to great is something else entirely.   You can’t always get there by hoarding every prospect and every draft pick.   

I’m sure the draft pick is a consideration for Elias.  It should be.  I also expect he’d reluctantly give it up if he saw a chance to get a starting pitcher he really wanted badly.   Whether he wants Sonny Gray that badly is anyone’s guess.



 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Try to tell Elias that giving up a 2nd round pick is not painful.  I doubt he would agree.  He is all about the draft and keeping the prospect pipeline flowing.

Did I say “not painful”?  No, I said having the two extra picks made losing a 2nd rounder less painful.   
 

If Elias has a choice of Sonny Gray at 3/69 and Eduardo Rodriguez at 5/95 he may determine that he’s more comfortable giving up that pick and going with Gray.   

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Did I say “not painful”?  No, I said having the two extra picks made losing a 2nd rounder less painful.   
 

If Elias has a choice of Sonny Gray at 3/69 and Eduardo Rodriguez at 5/95 he may determine that he’s more comfortable giving up that pick and going with Gray.   

Or Stroman 2/44 with no draft pick.

[RZNJ]

Just now, wildcard said:

Or Stroman 2/44 with no draft pick.

Could be.  Can you tell us which pitcher Elias prefers?

Edited November 10, 2023 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I love the way you proclaim what Elias is thinking.  

Building up a team from the bottom is one thing.  You hoard draft picks in that situation.  

Trying to take your team from very good to great is something else entirely.   You can’t always get there by hoarding every prospect and every draft pick.   

I’m sure the draft pick is a consideration for Elias.  It should be.  I also expect he’d reluctantly give it up if he saw a chance to get a starting pitcher he really wanted badly.   Whether he wants Sonny Gray that badly is anyone’s guess.



 

Exactly. Now, Elias (and moreso Angelos) has to show us that he is willing and able to acquire better players to put us over the top. 

No more of this Cole Irvin bs.

But yea, different circumstances should mean a different outcome and thought process.

[Sanfran327]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I love the way you proclaim what Elias is thinking.  

Building up a team from the bottom is one thing.  You hoard draft picks in that situation.  

Trying to take your team from very good to great is something else entirely.   You can’t always get there by hoarding every prospect and every draft pick.   

I’m sure the draft pick is a consideration for Elias.  It should be.  I also expect he’d reluctantly give it up if he saw a chance to get a starting pitcher he really wanted badly.   Whether he wants Sonny Gray that badly is anyone’s guess.



 

This is my #1 concern with (what I assume is our collective, objective impression of) our approach to building our roster. It's very difficult to make the jump from good to great unless you get a massive swell of homegrown talent bursting at the same time, which I think is what ME is banking on. It almost has to be. And I think we have the players to do it, as I think Holliday, Kjerstad, and others will have a big impact on our lineup next year, combined with continued growth from Rutschman and Henderson and a return to form from Mullins. 

While I'm a firm believer in a bird in the hand, ME has shown consistent elite draft prowess, and I would expect his 2nd rounder to be a good one, with potential to contribute to the ML team within 3-4 years. Unless we lock up our young stars soon, we'll always have to keep an eye on the future. I agree with you fundamentally, but I fear that payroll limitations will always keep ME's eyes down the road. 

It's going to be interesting to see if ME will have the cajones to trade ML stars for cheaper, younger talent ala "The Tampa Model". I think we're a few years from that yet, but if it's coming, it's going to be fairly soon.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

This is my #1 concern with (what I assume is our collective, objective impression of) our approach to building our roster. It's very difficult to make the jump from good to great unless you get a massive swell of homegrown talent bursting at the same time, which I think is what ME is banking on. It almost has to be. And I think we have the players to do it, as I think Holliday, Kjerstad, and others will have a big impact on our lineup next year, combined with continued growth from Rutschman and Henderson and a return to form from Mullins. 

While I'm a firm believer in a bird in the hand, ME has shown consistent elite draft prowess, and I would expect his 2nd rounder to be a good one, with potential to contribute to the ML team within 3-4 years. Unless we lock up our young stars soon, we'll always have to keep an eye on the future. I agree with you fundamentally, but I fear that payroll limitations will always keep ME's eyes down the road. 

It's going to be interesting to see if ME will have the cajones to trade ML stars for cheaper, younger talent ala "The Tampa Model". I think we're a few years from that yet, but if it's coming, it's going to be fairly soon.

Agreed.  I think this is part of the difference between "perennial contender" and "competitive window".  Fans are more short-sighted and emotional than we (or at least "I") want the decision-maker with his constraints to be.  Sure, there are times to push the chips into the middle of the table.  But it's not nearly as frequently as we fanatics tend to think.  

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Could be.  Can you tell us which pitcher Elias prefers?

No one can know who Elias is trying to sign, but we know he prefers shorter contracts for free agents, with everything being equal.  I really don't see Elias trying to sign anyone for over 3 years, which would make Stroman the pick in this poll.  That's without including the necessity of getting sign off from Angelos for any large free agent signing.

[Sports Guy]

Everyone is also assuming that our window is open for 5-10 years.

And while that may be the case, we don’t know that. We know that right now, you have the pieces to be very good. Not taking advantage of that because you have some unfounded worry about 2-3 years from now is non sensical.

Make some big moves and get this team in better position to succeed right now. You can easily do that without sacrificing anything long term.

[LookinUp]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

The competitive balance pick is not announced until around Dec 1st.  It could be after the 1st or 2nd round.   I expect it to be after the 2nd round but that is not a sure thing.

My impression is that the competitive balance picks rotate between after first and after second round, and this year is the O's turn to get the pick after the first round. 

So the only unknown is whether Gunnar will win the ROY (he will) and we get a 3rd pick right in that 31-36 range. 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My impression is that the competitive balance picks rotate between after first and after second round, and this year is the O's turn to get the pick after the first round. 

So the only unknown is whether Gunnar will win the ROY (he will) and we get a 3rd pick right in that 31-36 range. 

Do you have a link that says the Competitive Balance Pick rotates each year?   What I read on MLB does not state how the round is picked.

[LookinUp]

I thought I read that in our amateur forum. I'll take a look.

 

[LookinUp]

 

 

[LookinUp]