Orioles 2023 #11 prospect Conner Norby - 2B/LF

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/18/orioles-2023-11-prospect-connor-norby-2b/

The Orioles 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft, Norby comes in as the #11 prospect after a good offensive season in AAA, but an up and down season defensively.

Connor Norby
Pos: 2B
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2023 Level: AAA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/50
Game Power: 50/55
Raw Power: 55/55
Run: 50/50
Defense: 40/45

2023 Highlights

Most Likely Future Role: Everyday Left fielder or Second baseman
Ceiling: 1st Division Left fielder or 2nd Division Second baseman

What we know: Norby has solidified himself as a bat first prospect with a solid hit tool with above average power. Only Heston Kjerstad's 34.7% line drive rate was higher than Norby's 27.5% in AAA. The 23-year old drives the ball to all fields and although his 14.7% HR/FB% was the lowest of his career, he collected a career high 40 doubles to go along with his 21 homers. Playing in AAA all season, Norby set an affiliate record with a 164 hits.

He seems to be slow starter who heats up with the weather. After slashing just .265/.311/.347/.658 with home runs in 106 April PAs, he slashed .298/.369/.515/.884 from May to the end of the season. He showed he was completely major league ready by September when he slashed .313/.414/.590/1.005 with 5 homers, 14 BBs, and 15Ks in 99 PAs.

Norby will chase sliders away on occasion, and while he doesn't have elite bat speed, he makes adjustments during games and at bats. His bat is major league ready. He does have some miss in his swing, but not at an extreme rate (21.6 K%). He'll draw some walks, but it won't be a huge part of his offensive game.

Defensively, he did improve some at second base, but he's still a below average defender on the dirt. He did turn the double play better and he's got average second base arm strength but his accuracy is not always there especially when he has to throw hard on a play. He gets caught in short hops too often he seems to occasionally lose focus on making simple catches or pop ups.. He committed 16 errors this year in just 105 games at second base.

By September, the Orioles were splitting his time between left field and second base, and while he looks inexperienced in the outfield with some awkward routes and catches, he was a gamer out there and made several diving catches. He did make this nice play https://www.mlb.com/video/connor-norby-s-diving-catch?q=norby&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0 .

He's got the speed to play out there and with more experience, he could turn into an average defensive outfielder.

What we don't know: Norby's bat is major league ready, but where does he play defensively? The Orioles are stacked at second base with much better defenders, so if he stays in the organization, his best chance at getting everyday PAs is in left field, but even there he's got to beat out Austin Hays and Colton Cowser currently.

What we think: While Norby is major league ready offensively, his path to every day PAs with the Orioles looks blocked at his current positions. He's a prime candidate to be traded this offseason and without a series of trades of players ahead of him, he'll be back in AAA. He's put up a .295/.362/.498/.860 slash line in 675 AAA PAs now. There's nothing left for his bat to prove.

[btdart20]

Norby’s a hitter.  LD hitters from the right side is ideal for OPACY. The middle IF and corner OF roster crunch is tough.  

[now]

28 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Norby’s a hitter.  LD hitters from the right side is ideal for OPACY. The middle IF and corner OF roster crunch is tough.  

Selling high on Hays would help matters. 

[emmett16]

I would really like to see Norby make an impact for the Os next year in LF.  I hope he comes to spring training with a chance to win a role in the outfield.  I’d love to see 300 ABs out there from him.  It’ll likely take trading one or both of Hays/Santander for him to get a chance.  

[Jim'sKid26]

It seems the issue here is three fold:

1. Norby is not a good defender at either LF or 2B.

2. Both Cowser and Holiday are better defenders at LF and 2B respectively.

3. Mount Waltimore is likely to negatively effect most RH power hitters not named Coby Mayo. 

While Norby can hit and has nothing else to prove, with the bat, in MiLB; he just doesn't have a place to play in Baltimore. His value is at the highest it's likely to get while still in MiLB. Time for a trade.

[now]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Mount Waltimore is likely to negatively effect most RH power hitters not named Coby Mayo. 

While Norby can hit and has nothing else to prove, with the bat, in MiLB; he just doesn't have a place to play in Baltimore. His value is at the highest it's likely to get while still in MiLB. Time for a trade.

Interesting that you characterize Norby as a RH power hitter and @btdart20 calls him a LD hitter. If I go with the latter and believe in his improved defense then there's a place for him in Baltimore playing and hitting to left.

[E-D-D-I-E]

I believe his 40 doubles are indicative of the park he was playing in. sadly and i say sadly because it's brutal, the wall will lessen his value, plus he is blocked. For his sake i hope he is dealt. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by E-D-D-I-E

[Tony-OH]

Norby and Ortiz are the two players that are completely ready for the major leagues although a case could be made for Norby to get exclusive left field playing time in AAA in order for him to gain that experience. 

Saying that, I also think he, Ortiz, and Westburg all are significant trade chips and one or several of them will most likely be dealt this offseason.

[Jim'sKid26]

20 hours ago, now said:

Interesting that you characterize Norby as a RH power hitter and @btdart20 calls him a LD hitter. If I go with the latter and believe in his improved defense then there's a place for him in Baltimore playing and hitting to left.

From Tony's write up:

Game Power: 50/55
Raw Power: 55/55

"The 23-year old drives the ball to all fields and although his 14.7% HR/FB% was the lowest of his career, he collected a career high 40 doubles to go along with his 21 homers....He’s put up a .295/.362/.498/.860 slash line in 675 AAA PAs now."

Sounds like a power hitter to me. But I'm not certain there is a uniformly accepted definition. Call him what you will, the kid can hit. 

[now]

1 minute ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

From Tony's write up:

Game Power: 50/55
Raw Power: 55/55

"The 23-year old drives the ball to all fields and although his 14.7% HR/FB% was the lowest of his career, he collected a career high 40 doubles to go along with his 21 homers....He’s put up a .295/.362/.498/.860 slash line in 675 AAA PAs now."

Sounds like a power hitter to me. But I'm not certain there is a uniformly accepted definition. Call him what you will, the kid can hit. 

Sure. Just saying the 40 doubles and 20 homers should play just fine in Camden's spacious LF.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, now said:

Sure. Just saying the 40 doubles and 20 homers should play just fine in Camden's spacious LF.

This should work.

https://www.milb.com/video/connor-norby-s-two-run-home-run-x7727

[wildcard]

It's not a question of whether Norby can hit.  He can.  It's a matter of whether he can play defense?  Where? and When?  And who is ahead of him.

[now]

52 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

This should work.

https://www.milb.com/video/connor-norby-s-two-run-home-run-x7727

Playoff added value too!

[sportsfan8703]

I like Norby in AAA as depth if we’re trying to make it through 162 and try for the AL East title. It’s not ideal for Nobry, but didn’t Baylor or Bumbry win AAA MVP and repeat AAA the next year because we were so stacked?  That’s all this is. You don’t just give away Connor Norby. He’s worth more to us than he would likely bring back in a trade. 

The big thing he has going for him is that he’s RH in a system loaded with LHH. He needs to become a Zobrist type and play LF/RF/2B/3B/1B. 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Norby in AAA as depth if we’re trying to make it through 162 and try for the AL East title. It’s not ideal for Nobry, but didn’t Baylor or Bumbry win AAA MVP and repeat AAA the next year because we were so stacked?  That’s all this is. You don’t just give away Connor Norby. He’s worth more to us than he would likely bring back in a trade. 

The big thing he has going for him is that he’s RH in a system loaded with LHH. He needs to become a Zobrist type and play LF/RF/2B/3B/1B. 

I couldn't agree more.

If I'm Norby, and the O's, I'm working really hard on speed and agility this offseason. He's on the cusp of getting an opportunity somewhere. Time to work like he never has before. He's not THAT far from being a really legit major league player.