What is your realistic best case scenario?

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Knowing what the Os are likely willing to spend and going with with who is available or likely to be available, what is your best case scenario for this offseason?

Wacha for a couple years for 12 million per

[Flash- bd]

We have 4 good starters. We have two pitchers (D.L. Hall and McDermott) with very interesting potential. We have a bit of a question mark but satisfying options as a 5th starter in Wells. With D.L. Hall it feels to me like it's .... or get off the pot regarding being a starter, we're not going to really find out much about him as a starter in relief this season, and I think we tend to underrate his potential as a starting piece, as to a lesser extent with McDermott. 

If we don't like the price for a pitcher with big potential like a Cease or a Quintana, I don't really see much point in the Bieber / Gray level of acquisitions, I would just go with the high upside play in whichever one of those guys performs better in spring training. (Wacha is the one guy I'd maybe sign as an FA, if you believe he is one of those guys who can continue to outperform his peripherals and bet on his last two seasons)

So, yeah, if we don't use our amassed trade capital for a Cease or a Quintana type, or perhaps a high potential type like Woo / Miller / Hancock (would tend toward whoever we deem to have the highest potential of those 3), I would instead look to be packaging it for top bullpen arms, as much as two top ones, and also looking at trading some combination of Hays / Mountcastle / Santander (perhaps even Mullins if there's a CF upgrade out there, don't think there is, though, right?) and prospects for a ready made upgrade in our lineup in one of the corner spots or 1B / DH. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Flash- bd

[Roll Tide]

39 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

We have 4 good starters. We have two pitchers (D.L. Hall and McDermott) with very interesting potential. We have a bit of a question mark but satisfying options as a 5th starter in Wells. With D.L. Hall it feels to me like it's .... or get off the pot regarding being a starter, we're not going to really find out much about him as a starter in relief this season, and I think we tend to underrate his potential as a starting piece, as to a lesser extent with McDermott. 

If we don't like the price for a pitcher with big potential like a Cease or a Quintana, I don't really see much point in the Bieber / Gray level of acquisitions, I would just go with the high upside play in whichever one of those guys performs better in spring training. (Wacha is the one guy I'd maybe sign as an FA, if you believe he is one of those guys who can continue to outperform his peripherals and bet on his last two seasons)

So, yeah, if we don't use our amassed trade capital for a Cease or a Quintana type, or perhaps a high potential type like Woo / Miller / Hancock (would tend toward whoever we deem to have the highest potential of those 3), I would instead look to be packaging it for top bullpen arms, as much as two top ones, and also looking at trading some combination of Hays / Mountcastle / Santander (perhaps even Mullins if there's a CF upgrade out there, don't think there is, though, right?) and prospects for a ready made upgrade in our lineup in one of the corner spots or 1B / DH. 

Hall wants to be a starter, I suspect the Orioles are happy with him in the pen. I don’t expect a change.

[One eyed Bird]

Ol Pete bites the big one, the remaining Angelos dirt bags can’t afford the inheritance tax, the Orioles are sold to someone who actually cares about winning instead of raping the fans/state out of every $ they can. New ownership signs Mike and his crew to a 10 year contract extension. That would be a damn fine off season regardless of what else happens .

[Flash- bd]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Hall wants to be a starter, I suspect the Orioles are happy with him in the pen. I don’t expect a change.

Let's see. I know I shouldn't take Elias' word as the ultimate truth on matters as he'll obviously take a default positive stance on things like this, but he's been pretty insistent and consistent that they see Hall's future as a starter. In this case I tend to think there's something there but we shall see! 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

Let's see. I know I shouldn't take Elias' word as the ultimate truth on matters as he'll obviously take a default positive stance on things like this, but he's been pretty insistent and consistent that they see Hall's future as a starter. In this case I tend to think there's something there but we shall see! 

We can wait and see….As a starter he throws too many pitches, has an elevated era, and struggles to reach 5 innings. I believe it will be more of the same. Obviously everything he says doesn’t come to be. If they trade for a starter there is almost no chance. And they need options for closer IMO. I don’t like Cano as closer and think he and Wells are our best 2 options.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Jagwar]

Here is my hope for the offseason. Is it a realistic best case? Who the phat knows?

• The O's and the City of Baltimore sign and ratify a long term lease
• The O's acquire two starters which would at least be #2-3 anywhere else in the league.
• The O's acquire a closer. 
• The O's acquire a MOO who can take the pressure of the young guys to produce. 

No idea what it would cost in $$ or prospects. 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Here is my hope for the offseason. Is it a realistic best case? Who the phat knows?

• The O's and the City of Baltimore sign and ratify a long term lease
• The O's acquire two starters which would at least be #2-3 anywhere else in the league.
• The O's acquire a closer. 
• The O's acquire a MOO who can take the pressure of the young guys to produce. 

No idea what it would cost in $$ or prospects. 

Me thinks you’re going to be disappointed. I don’t know why we’d need 2 starters. If you get someone  Cease, Gray to slot at the top and follow with Bradish , G-Rod, Kremer, and Means you’d have a solid 5 with 100 quality innings from Wells and Hall. 
 

I really think they add a bullpen arm but hand closer to Hall, Wells, or Cano. I’ll be happy when the lease is signed and would dance around the Yah-Yah tree if the team is sold. I’d like to see a MOO bat. I suspect the decision is based on what they do with Santander.

[Jagwar]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Me thinks you’re going to be disappointed. I don’t know why we’d need 2 starters. If you get someone  Cease, Gray to slot at the top and follow with Bradish , G-Rod, Kremer, and Means you’d have a solid 5 with 100 quality innings from Wells and Hall. 
 

I really think they add a bullpen arm but hand closer to Hall, Wells, or Cano. I’ll be happy when the lease is signed and would dance around the Yah-Yah tree if the team is sold. I’d like to see a MOO bat. I suspect the decision is based on what they do with Santander.

I'm assuming that to get those 2 starters, Kremer will likely be included in a trade somewhere. 

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I'm assuming that to get those 2 starters, Kremer will likely be included in a trade somewhere. 

Perhaps…but I don’t think you will see Kremer dealt. Why would he deal a good piece of the rotation and pay the prospect prices for a comparable pitcher? We aren’t getting two #2 guys IMO why empty the farm to do that. As has been said here multiple times, Kremer is seriously undervalued here. 

[wildcard]

Realistic?  

Urias, Norby and Stowers are trade for a reliever and pitching prospects.  Wells is the 5th starter.

In July the O's trade Mountcastle or O'Hearn for a rental starter to make room for Mayo. 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by wildcard

[Orioles0615]

I can't think of a best case realistic scenario, the cynic in me can only think of a realistic and most likely.

 

Kenta Madea 1 year deal

Kolton Wong 1 year deal

RP comes from rule 5 

Several waiver claims

[Just Regular]

I heard a podcaster advocating strongly for Hader, looking at how ATL stacks relief aces and speculating about him being a high value player whose value is still nonetheless depressed due to some iffy actions on the player's part.     It mentioned the hope he'd go back to hair on fire mode once his primary career windfall is guaranteed.

There's the axiom the last thing a 100-loss team needs is a closer, and BAL now being on the other side of that notion.     Obviously Sigbot would do all its diligence there with makeup, and if long-term harmonious partnership with Felix seems workable for the main guys.

More realistically in the $10-$25mm guarantee range for FA SP, I'm hoping for ceiling a little more than floor - with the players at hand, that might loosely mean something like:

Do chase: Luis Severino, James Paxton, Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas

Don't chase: Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen, Wade Miley, Martin Perez

Lucas Giolito remains an interesting cat for me a little bit higher, and maybe amenable to a pillow contract if the 1-year dollars are nice enough.    He just needs one good year to get his Jameson Taillon/Taijuan Walker ~$60mm he may struggle to get right now.    He has some Lyles-Gibson similarities, and the same White Sox drag as Cease the last few years.

[Aristotelian]

Would Yamamoto count as ideal realistic? Trading Santander, Hays, Urias, and Mateo for salary relief to make it work?

What about Gray?

Or trade Norby for best available SP whoever that is.

Plus one of the bullpen arms like Neris or Hicks.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would Yamamoto count as ideal realistic? Trading Santander, Hays, Urias, and Mateo for salary relief to make it work?

What about Gray?

Or trade Norby for best available SP whoever that is.

Plus one of the bullpen arms like Neris or Hicks.

Yamamoto doesn’t qualify as realistic on any level.