Pre winter meeting reliever notes

[Jim'sKid26]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you have to judge where the market has the best values, and what your needs are.  Let’s say you can sign either Hader or Eduardo Rodriguez for 5/$95 mm.  Which one do you choose, if either? 

I think Rodriguez has more value for a number of reasons. but he's a starter. If the question is how do you fortify the bullpen and you don't want to spend that much on a closer, Hicks is a reasonable, option at 4/40. 

If you want a high end reliever you have to pay, that's my point. If you want to settle for a lesser pitcher in the bullpen then spend the money elsewhere. Elias has articulated a need at SP and the back of the bullpen. Eduardo would be a reasonable choice for SP. But he's not a reliever.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I think Rodriguez has more value for a number of reasons. but he's a starter. If the question is how do you fortify the bullpen and you don't want to spend that much on a closer, Hicks is a reasonable, option at 4/40. 

If you want a high end reliever you have to pay, that's my point. If you want to settle for a lesser pitcher in the bullpen then spend the money elsewhere. Elias has articulated a need at SP and the back of the bullpen. Eduardo would be a reasonable choice for SP. But he's not a reliever.

I’m just saying if you’re in an environment where the top reliever is commanding very good starter pay, the top reliever market may be overvalued.  

[Jim'sKid26]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Cardinals defense wasn’t chopped liver.  Our defense is good but some people act like it’s the best.

My point is that he has a great sinker. He gets lots of Ks and lots of GBs. With a good infield defense GB are turned into outs much more frequently than if you have a poor infield defense. Which is better, St. Louis or Baltimore? I don't know. Does it really matter?

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m just saying if you’re in an environment where the top reliever is commanding very good starter pay, the top reliever market may be overvalued.  

Where do you see very good starters getting 4/40 on the free agent market? 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My point is that he has a great sinker. He gets lots of Ks and lots of GBs. With a good infield defense GB are turned into outs much more frequently than if you have a poor infield defense. Which is better, St. Louis or Baltimore? I don't know. Does it really matter?

Sure, it matters because he pitched in St. Louis for 5 1/2 years and he was never very good.    He pitched pretty well for Toronto for 2 months.  A 100 mph fastball and 2 good months are why he’s going to get a fat contract.  5 1/2 years of actual results don’t really warrant that.

[Sports Guy]

And btw, when Hicks moved to Toronto, his K rate plummeted.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Sure, it matters because he pitched in St. Louis for 5 1/2 years and he was never very good.    He pitched pretty well for Toronto for 2 months.  A 100 mph fastball and 2 good months are why he’s going to get a fat contract.  5 1/2 years of actual results don’t really warrant that.

Look at the stats. He misses bats and he gets ground balls. His LIFETIME GB% is 60%. With the exception of his rookie year he has averaged more than 9 Ks/9. Yes, he walks guys and that's why he won't get Hader money. But he's got elite stuff and he's only 27 years old. He is coming into his prime. 

[Jim'sKid26]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, when Hicks moved to Toronto, his K rate plummeted.

Weren't you the guy earlier in this thread admonishing other posters about small sample size?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Look at the stats. He misses bats and he gets ground balls. His LIFETIME GB% is 60%. With the exception of his rookie year he has averaged more than 9 Ks/9. Yes, he walks guys and that's why he won't get Hader money. But he's got elite stuff and he's only 27 years old. He is coming into his prime. 

He’s in his prime and he’s not that good UNLESS you buy into the 2 months in Toronto.  For his entire career he’s worth 2.4 FWAR.  He may have all of these great attributes but he doesn’t keep guys off base or prevent runs at even close to an elite level.  You can bet 40M that he’s about to become something different.  I’ll pass.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Weren't you the guy earlier in this thread admonishing other posters about small sample size?

Are you judging him based off a small sample size of his posting?

You have to look at his posting as a whole, not one individual post.

[dystopia]

10 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Look at the stats. He misses bats and he gets ground balls. His LIFETIME GB% is 60%. With the exception of his rookie year he has averaged more than 9 Ks/9. Yes, he walks guys and that's why he won't get Hader money. But he's got elite stuff and he's only 27 years old. He is coming into his prime. 

Here's a stat for you -- 3.84 lifetime ERA which is meh at best for a reliever. Not a small sample size either unlike his stint in Toronto.

[RZNJ]

36 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I think Rodriguez has more value for a number of reasons. but he's a starter. If the question is how do you fortify the bullpen and you don't want to spend that much on a closer, Hicks is a reasonable, option at 4/40. 

If you want a high end reliever you have to pay, that's my point. If you want to settle for a lesser pitcher in the bullpen then spend the money elsewhere. Elias has articulated a need at SP and the back of the bullpen. Eduardo would be a reasonable choice for SP. But he's not a reliever.

How is Jordan Hicks a high end reliever?   I mean in results.

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Now you all can start speculating on a trade for Bieber AND Clase.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/guardians-trade-rumors-emmanuel-clase.html

The Guardians are open to offers on All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase and willing to trade him for the right offer, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Even if the club is merely performing its due diligence, it’s a fairly surprising development, given the overwhelmingly club-friendly contract to which the 25-year-old (26 in March) righty is signed.

Early in the 2022 season, Cleveland inked Clase to a five-year, $20MM contract extension that included affordable $10MM club options for the 2027-28 seasons (each with a $2MM buyout). He’s entering the third season of that deal, slated to earn $2.5MM this coming season, $4.5MM the following year and $6MM in 2026.

Clase is about as valuable as a closer could be on the trade market when you consider his age and contract. Definitely an interesting option though maybe a better fit for a team who doesn't have Bautista for, hopefully, most of that same span. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Clase is about as valuable as a closer could be on the trade market when you consider his age and contract. Definitely an interesting option though maybe a better fit for a team who doesn't have Bautista for, hopefully, most of that same span. 

Nothing stopping you from flipping him next offseason if you think he has more value in trade than on the field.

[Jim'sKid26]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How is Jordan Hicks a high end reliever?   I mean in results.

From Fangraphs: "Possibly the best right-handed reliever on the market, Hicks’ sales pitch is simple: He might have the fastest fastball ever to reach free agency. But his case is further bolstered by his 2023 season, which might have been his most complete season yet statistically speaking. He made 65 regular season appearances between the Cardinals and Blue Jays with a 3.29 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 3.36 xFIP, striking out a career-high 28.4% of batters faced. He allowed just nine barrels on 168 batted balls (5.4%) and an average exit velocity of just 86.7 mph – good for the 89th percentile league-wide. On those balls in play, 58.9% were on the ground, a 96th-percentile clip and yet somehow below his career average. As it turns out, strikeouts and soft groundballs are a potent combination."

It goes on to address that he walks too many guy, as I have already addressed, before concluding:"Hicks has had his own ups and downs, but he’s an undeniable weapon for the back end of any bullpen." Now if you want to argue that he is asking more than you are willing to pay, fine. I get it. But don't tell me he doesn't have elite stuff. He does what you want a back end guy to do. He gets Ks and GB.