Ohtani to the Blue Jays? (Update: Signs w/Dodgers for $700 million over 10 yrs)

[ArtVanDelay]

17 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Did we not lose in the first round we played?

It wasn’t the first round of the playoffs. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I mean it's the Dodgers, but he's not coming anywhere near justifying that contract.

I don't see Ohtani's career as a pitcher lasting too much longer. He's already on his second serious arm injury and at some point it's going to make sense for Ohtani to be a full time hitter even if he's getting paid to pitch and hit. I see Ohtani's contract as part marketing stunt since Japanese fans will be following what Ohtani does with the Dodgers.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Well, at least he's not in our division. Significant deferred money. Depending on how much, I might have offered him that contract. Oh well.

You have 700 million dollars?  Why are you posting here?

[Pickles]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't see Ohtani's career as a pitcher lasting too much longer. He's already on his second serious arm injury and at some point it's going to make sense for Ohtani to be a full time hitter even if he's getting paid to pitch and hit. I see Ohtani's contract as part marketing stunt since Japanese fans will be following what Ohtani does with the Dodgers.

Just by WAR numbers he'd need to average about 9 WAR a year for the next ten years.  He had 10 this year in his best season, but can't pitch at least for the next year and is relegated to DH.

The arguments about him opening unique revenue streams still depend on him performing in unique.  A 150 OPS+ DH, while great, isn't going to captivate the world.

[Moose Milligan]

Hope he kills it for the Dodgers. Glad Toronto lost again. Losers. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Just by WAR numbers he'd need to average about 9 WAR a year for the next ten years.  He had 10 this year in his best season, but can't pitch at least for the next year and is relegated to DH.

The arguments about him opening unique revenue streams still depend on him performing in unique.  A 150 OPS+ DH, while great, isn't going to captivate the world.

When my wife and I went to the Orioles-Angels game in Sept, I would say at least 30% of the crowd there were Asians just there to see Ohtani.  So many jerseys of his were seen.  Lots and lots of Asian women too, not just men.  And the Angels at the time were terrible.  Sadly this was the day after he got hurt so he didn't even play. 

 

Considering the last time I went to a Dodgers game it was well over half Hispanic, I am sure the Dodger brass thinks he can more than make up for the contract just by drawing in the Asian crowd.  And they are probably right.   His worth at the box office from Asians paying to see him play is sky high.  Probably a good contract for both parties.

Edited December 9, 2023 by OnlyOneOriole

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hope he kills it for the Dodgers. Glad Toronto lost again. Losers. 

The Dodgers will be the best team ever to lose in the NLDS.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Just by WAR numbers he'd need to average about 9 WAR a year for the next ten years.  He had 10 this year in his best season, but can't pitch at least for the next year and is relegated to DH.

The arguments about him opening unique revenue streams still depend on him performing in unique.  A 150 OPS+ DH, while great, isn't going to captivate the world.

No he won't.

Did you not see the part about massive deferments?  Future money is less valuable than present money.  The real value of the deal is going to be significantly lower than the headline number we are seeing.

[Pickles]

Just now, OnlyOneOriole said:

When my wife and I went to the Orioles-Angels game in Sept, I would say at least 30% of the crowd there were Asians just there to see Ohtani.  So man jerseys of his.  Lots and lots of Asian women too, not just men.  And the Angels at the time were terrible.  Sadly this was the day after he got hurt so he didn't even play. 

 

Considering the last time I went to a Dodgers game it was well over half Hispanic, I am sure the Dodger brass thinks he can more than make up for the contract just by drawing in the Asian crowd.  And they are probably right. 

Right, but in six years when he's a DH with a 125 OPS+, millions of Asians won't be going to see him, and there will probably be a new Japanese Superstar drawing the crowds.

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Ohtani to Dodgers 10 years $700,000,000.  Very significant deferrals said to be his idea so the team could spend  more to be competitive.

I know Passan said this, but that isn't how the salary cap works. The salary cap is whatever the per year average is over the length of the contract, not what they were actually paid that year. So it doesn't matter if it's 10M the first 5 years and 130M the next 5. The annual hit is 70M per year.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

No he won't.

Did you not see the part about massive deferments?  Future money is less valuable than present money.  The real value of the deal is going to be significantly lower than the headline number we are seeing.

We'll have to see much is deferred, but 700 million is 700 million.

Does anybody feel better about the Davis contract because we only paid him 19 million in the first year, and he's receiving deferred payments?

Edit: Don't forget the luxury tax implications.  That 700 million is actually going to be a lot more than 700 million.  Likely it will be north of a billionn.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Pickles

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The Drake curse wins again over Dave Roberts leaking out the Dodgers negotiations with Ohtani that were supposed to be kept secret.

 

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Just by WAR numbers he'd need to average about 9 WAR a year for the next ten years.  He had 10 this year in his best season, but can't pitch at least for the next year and is relegated to DH.

The arguments about him opening unique revenue streams still depend on him performing in unique.  A 150 OPS+ DH, while great, isn't going to captivate the world.

30MM Japanese televisions tuned in to watch him in WBC.  That's just Japan.  They are targeting all of Asia.  The Dodgers will be, by far, the most popular MLB team in the world.  That bodes well for after the contract expires also.  

[Pickles]

Just now, emmett16 said:

30MM Japanese televisions tuned in to watch him in WBC.  That's just Japan.  They are targeting all of Asia.  The Dodgers will be, by far, the most popular MLB team in the world.  That bodes well for after the contract expires also.  

How'd it turn out for the Angles?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

When my wife and I went to the Orioles-Angels game in Sept, I would say at least 30% of the crowd there were Asians just there to see Ohtani.  So many jerseys of his were seen.  Lots and lots of Asian women too, not just men.  And the Angels at the time were terrible.  Sadly this was the day after he got hurt so he didn't even play. 

 

Considering the last time I went to a Dodgers game it was well over half Hispanic, I am sure the Dodger brass thinks he can more than make up for the contract just by drawing in the Asian crowd.  And they are probably right.

They are already averaging over 47K a game.  Not sure if they can get to a full house (56K) on the daily.