ROY manipulation

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

What if Mullins has a career year this year and is healthy?  He’d be pretty motivated with a ton of confidence to put up an equally good year in his walk year. 

Do I think that will happen? No.  But it’s not out of the realm of possibility. 

If he has a career year and EBJ is ready, Mullins should absolutely be traded.

If EBJ isn’t ready and Mullins is still good, he should stay.

This isn’t that complicated.

[waroriole]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok but that’s the point. If EBJ is ready, he absolutely should be starting 2025 in Cf on OD.

If EBJ isn’t ready, that is a red flag for his future imo.

I don’t see a scenario where EBJ is ready and Mullins has value but we keep Mullins and keep EBJ in the minors.  That just isn’t logical.

It’s a red flag if a guy isn’t ready to start in CF OD after 1 year in the minors?

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he has a career year and EBJ is ready, Mullins should absolutely be traded.

If EBJ isn’t ready and Mullins is still good, he should stay.

This isn’t that complicated.

We havnt seen this org do that yet.  I agree that would be best base scenario.  
 

There is also the element of rewarding the guys who are your poster children for what a successful player looks like.  That creates cohesion and shared goals through the org top to bottom. 

Edited December 21, 2023 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

What if Mullins has a career year this year and is healthy?  He’d be pretty motivated with a ton of confidence to put up an equally good year in his walk year. 

Do I think that will happen? No.  But it’s not out of the realm of possibility. 

You could move one of the two of them in left.

You've got LF/CF/RF and DH to move guys around in.  Heck you can add 1B to the mix.

 

I'd also like to add that the idea of Mullins putting up a 6 Win season is right on the edge of the realm of possibility.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s a red flag if a guy isn’t ready to start in CF OD after 1 year in the minors?

It’s a red flag if his offense is still struggling and he doesn’t show that he is ready for the majors for 2025.

He should end this year in AAA and giving the Os the thought that he can start on OD in 2025.  
 

If he is struggling to the point that they can’t even consider starting him, that’s a red flag imo.  This assumes health of course.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

We havnt seen this org do that yet.  I agree that would be best base scenario.  
 

There is also the element of rewarding the guys who are your poster children for what a successful player looks like.  That creates cohesion and shared goals through the org top to bottom. 

Yep..thus why you reward EBJ

[forphase1]

17 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

We havnt seen this org do that yet.  I agree that would be best base scenario.  
 

There is also the element of rewarding the guys who are your poster children for what a successful player looks like.  That creates cohesion and shared goals through the org top to bottom. 

Oh dear, I hope the management doesn't take this 'rewarding players' idea to heart.  That's how you end up with bad contracts with players who are declining in productivity as you are rewarding them for their past production instead of what they are currently and in the future actually able to accomplish.  I like Mullins.  But if we had a young, talented player in the minors like an Ortiz/Westburg/Mayo but who played an above average CF, I'd be letting teams know Mullins is available in trades.  MAYBE Bradfield becomes that guy, way to early to know IMO.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok but that’s the point. If EBJ is ready, he absolutely should be starting 2025 in Cf on OD.

If EBJ isn’t ready, that is a red flag for his future imo.

I don’t see a scenario where EBJ is ready and Mullins has value but we keep Mullins and keep EBJ in the minors.  That just isn’t logical.

We're really just focusing on knowns like Cedrics FA, development/aging expectations/trends, team history/direction, and things like that.  

How many of our prospects have gone 3 levels in one season?  A few but are they 'the rule' or the exception to proves how special they are? 

EBJ had a grand total of 21 PAs at Aberdeen.  He'll open 2024 in Aberdeen.  You're expecting him to dominate A+, adjust to AA, and check enough boxes in AAA in 2024 to force Elias to deal Cedric and have no insurance policy.  And if we've learned anything about Elias is that he likes to have a parachute when setting the Rookie Integration Plan.  

I'd love to see EBJ perform at that level, but I don't see his performance changing how Elias builds the roster.  It's not fully about EBJ's development.  Though, his plus plus speed and defense at CF lowers the barrier of entry for his bat.  One thing in his favor is that CF is thin, only really Fabian is a competitor after Mullins.  And if EBJ and Fabian are in AAA together, I think EBJ is the priority play.

I suspect he'll get time in 2025, but I don't expect him to be the OD CF.  

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good question and I'm going to dodge it because I don't feel like doing the work to answer it.

I can't think of any team leaving a guy that could be a 3+ Win player in the minors.

@emmett16 - TBR, LAD, and HOU for sure. As much because they have a deep system and have competitive MLBers on the team.  They have prospects but anticipate paying the rookie tax.  Similar context that we have now.

Josh Lowe was pretty highly regarded, MLB debut in 2021 after strong AAA numbers.  2022 he split time in AAA (strong) and MLB (not good).  2023 he posted a 3.8 fWAR.  He was a HS guy but a 1.13 draft.  More power, less speed, but similar tier.  The caveat is he missed his age 22 season for Covid...  But after rookie ball, they moved him a level per year from 2017-2021 (minus 2020).   

Arozarena...

LAD - Will Smith, Outman, Lux

HOU - Yainier Diaz?, McCormack, Pena, Valdez, Hunter Brown?

[Sports Guy]

EBJ is a different prospect than guys we have had.

He is very likely a GG contender from day 1. He likely steals 50+ bases in his first year.

Those are 2 incredibly unique traits that make him different than say a guy like Westburg, who they were trying to figure out his best defensive position.

There is also the idea of the guy in front of EBJ being someone who will be signed for 1 more year, has real value and is going to cost a lot of money for the Os.

So, this is much more of a unique situation than other players.

So yes, he should move fast (he easily could be in AA by mid May if he is hitting). Big time college program and conference and elite level traits that play right now. If he fledging in AA and now showing improvements with the bat, it’s a big red flag.

That does not mean his career is over or that he has no chance of being a starter. It just means that he should start to show major improvement this year and if he doesn’t, I think that means he’s more likely to become a role/bench player.

EBJ has an extremely high floor. His speed and defense will make him a MLer for some time.  But if he can’t hit, that’s all he will be.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

EBJ is a different prospect than guys we have had.

He is very likely a GG contender from day 1. He likely steals 50+ bases in his first year.

Those are 2 incredibly unique traits that make him different than say a guy like Westburg, who they were trying to figure out his best defensive position.

There is also the idea of the guy in front of EBJ being someone who will be signed for 1 more year, has real value and is going to cost a lot of money for the Os.

So, this is much more of a unique situation than other players.

So yes, he should move fast (he easily could be in AA by mid May if he is hitting). Big time college program and conference and elite level traits that play right now. If he fledging in AA and now showing improvements with the bat, it’s a big red flag.

That does not mean his career is over or that he has no chance of being a starter. It just means that he should start to show major improvement this year and if he doesn’t, I think that means he’s more likely to become a role/bench player.

EBJ has an extremely high floor. His speed and defense will make him a MLer for some time.  But if he can’t hit, that’s all he will be.

If he is very likely a GG contender from day 1 AND likely steals 50+ bases how the heck did he drop to 17th?

Stolen bases is a bit weird to look at because of the recent changes to the game but three players stole 50 bases last year.  So you think he is likely to be a top 5 guy in that category in his first year?

 

[Just Regular]

I agree EBJ could get rapid deployment if his 2024 is successful enough.    At that point, Mullins, currently not in the great Old Hays-Santander and Young Kjerstad-Cowser conversation, becomes the "I'm a better OPACY LF than all y'all" figure.

I think late 2025 veteranosity respect if EBJ is up then just means we'd see LF Bradfield, CF Mullins for a month.     I believe young Mick had to leave DiMaggio alone for a minute.     It doesn't mean we'd be the Club to give Mullins the Bryan Reynolds or Brandon Nimmo contract.

We joked about EBJ getting the Jarrod Dyson role in October 2023, and I believe that's a much stronger possibility in 2024.     As with Shane McClanahan, you haven't earned all your Raysian scout badges until you use a player in the postseason and hold them back a month or two the next spring.

[emmett16]

15 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Oh dear, I hope the management doesn't take this 'rewarding players' idea to heart.  That's how you end up with bad contracts with players who are declining in productivity as you are rewarding them for their past production instead of what they are currently and in the future actually able to accomplish.  I like Mullins.  But if we had a young, talented player in the minors like an Ortiz/Westburg/Mayo but who played an above average CF, I'd be letting teams know Mullins is available in trades.  MAYBE Bradfield becomes that guy, way too early to know IMO.

The scenario was Mullins coming off a career year.  Tendering him a one year contract (rewarding him) in his walk year (when he’s motivated to be the best ever) is an example of a bad contract for a player in decline? 

OK. So…

A team is going to trade for said declining player on a “bad” contract? 

Hmm. 

 

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

I agree EBJ could get rapid deployment if his 2024 is successful enough.    At that point, Mullins, currently not in the great Old Hays-Santander and Young Kjerstad-Cowser conversation, becomes the "I'm a better OPACY LF than all y'all" figure.

I think late 2025 veteranosity respect if EBJ is up then just means we'd see LF Bradfield, CF Mullins for a month.     I believe young Mick had to leave DiMaggio alone for a minute.     It doesn't mean we'd be the Club to give Mullins the Bryan Reynolds or Brandon Nimmo contract.

We joked about EBJ getting the Jarrod Dyson role in October 2023, and I believe that's a much stronger possibility in 2024.     As with Shane McClanahan, you haven't earned all your Raysian scout badges until you use a player in the postseason and hold them back a month or two the next spring.

If EBJ and Mullins are in the outfield together then things are looking darn good for the Os.  I’m all for it.  I think that’s like 100th percentile in things going as perfectly as possible.  Both so good they need to be in the lineup while no balls touch the grass in OPACY on D.  Sign me up. 

[Just Regular]

I don't follow the NL anymore, but looking at Myles Straw type people - holy cow the Rockies.

Last year they used some guy named Brenton Doyle for 400 PA, he led MLB in CF defensive value by FG numbers, and had a 43 wRC+.      Granted the '25 Orioles will expect a lot more everywhere than the '23 Rockies.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he is very likely a GG contender from day 1 AND likely steals 50+ bases how the heck did he drop to 17th?

Stolen bases is a bit weird to look at because of the recent changes to the game but three players stole 50 bases last year.  So you think he is likely to be a top 5 guy in that category in his first year?

 

He fell because of the bat concerns although some did have him as a top 10 talent.

And yes I do. Of course I’m basing that off of the scouting reports and trusting that they are accurate.

He had 25 steals in 25 games last season.

Im guessing he steals 80+ bases in the minors this year, if he’s healthy all year.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sports Guy