ROY manipulation

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

All I’m saying is that it’s performance + performance of the guys/team in front of him.  They are going to manage assets to get the most value of out of the entire portfolio.  

And paying Mullins 10-15M in 2025 and letting him walk for, at best, a comp pick is a poor way to manage that asset if you have someone who can take his place.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sports Guy

[emmett16]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off we are talking about RoY manipulation, there is a gap between RoY winner and failed prospect.

Honestly if he ends up being a fourth outfielder/defensive specialist in the majors than he hasn't "failed".

Folks have weirdly high standards for prospects.

Correct.  Which is why I outline a *potential scenario in which he would be eligible in 2026.  The exact year our current CFs contract expires…

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Folks have weirdly high standards for prospects.

Folks also have weirdly low standards for high picks.

[sportsfan8703]

2024

Cowser or Kjerstad would have a good shot to compile #s this year if we decided to move one of Santander/Hays. 

Mayo if for some reason he’s to OD 3rd basemen, but idk why we’d give up that extra year of control for three weeks this year. 

Holliday would be one of the favorites if we could sign him to an extension this offseason. 

2025

Going forward I could see that Kjerstad has is rookie eligibility for next year and we lose Santa and O’Hearn in FA. 

2026

Basallo if an extension is reached. EBJ if he’s the day one starter in CF to replace Mullins. EBJ would get his feet wet in September of 2025. 

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And paying Mullins 10-15M in 2025 and letting him walk for, at best, a comp pick is a poor way to manage that asset if you have someone who can take his place.

I get that.  I think Mullins is tricky.  Similar to Santander, who is going to get more, and in the same position.  Mullins might not be able to get good value in trade market and his best value to the team could be locking down CF until EBJ is ready.    

[Sports Guy]

Just now, emmett16 said:

I get that.  I think Mullins is tricky.  Similar to Santander, who is going to get more, and in the same position.  Mullins might not be able to get good value in trade market and his best value to the team could be locking down CF until EBJ is ready.    

Ok but that’s the point. If EBJ is ready, he absolutely should be starting 2025 in Cf on OD.

If EBJ isn’t ready, that is a red flag for his future imo.

I don’t see a scenario where EBJ is ready and Mullins has value but we keep Mullins and keep EBJ in the minors.  That just isn’t logical.

[emmett16]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, and if he's "that guy" they are going to manage one of those assets out of town to make room for him.

Leaving him in the minors isn't getting you the most value.

Who would you say is a recent example of the team doing that?  Looks like a lot of guys that appear to be “that guy” who are currently in a similar situation.  

If the guy in front of him contributes to a WS run and his value/skills can be put towards an additional year 6 years later, I’d say that’s just about max value.  

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Folks also have weirdly low standards for high picks.

34.5% of 17th overall picks don't even make the majors.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

34.5% of 17th overall picks don't even make the majors.

 

Good for those guys…but the Os are developing at a high level, he’s an advanced college player and 2/3 of his game are likely already elite.

Everyone’s expectation for him should be that he can manage an OPS high enough that he is a very good ML CFer and that OpS doesn’t have to get to a high level for that to be the case.

Expecting him to be a 680-710 OPS bat isn’t a high expectation.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And paying Mullins 10-15M in 2025 and letting him walk for, at best, a comp pick is a poor way to manage that asset if you have someone who can take his place.

I think you sometimes underrate the human element of the game.  Sure Mullins is an “asset” but he’s also a respected guy in the clubhouse who’s paid his dues.  And sometimes front offices keep those guys around through their Arb years even if trading them before that would be “optimal asset management.”   Not always - look at Mancini.  But sometimes.  

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Who would you say is a recent example of the team doing that?  Looks like a lot of guys that appear to be “that guy” who are currently in a similar situation.  
 

 

Good question and I'm going to dodge it because I don't feel like doing the work to answer it.

I can't think of any team leaving a guy that could be a 3+ Win player in the minors.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you sometimes underrate the human element of the game.  Sure Mullins is an “asset” but he’s also a respected guy in the clubhouse who’s paid his dues.  And sometimes front offices keep those guys around through their Arb years even if trading them before that would be “optimal asset management.”   Not always - look at Mancini.  But sometimes.  

The Os have plenty of respected guys in the clubhouse.

If Mullins is here in 2025, it’s because the Os don’t have another CF option. That’s possible and if that’s the case, so be it. I wouldn’t be too excited to trade him this offseason because of our lack of options for CF in 2024.

But if he is our best option, (going back to the actual point here), it’s likely because EBJ has struggled too much in the minors and that leaves plenty of doubt about whether or not he will be what the Os drafted him to be.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os have plenty of respected guys in the clubhouse.

If Mullins is here in 2025, it’s because the Os don’t have another CF option. That’s possible and if that’s the case, so be it. I wouldn’t be too excited to trade him this offseason because of our lack of options for CF in 2024.

But if he is our best option, (going back to the actual point here), it’s likely because EBJ has struggled too much in the minors and that leaves plenty of doubt about whether or not he will be what the Os drafted him to be.

Well, saying he won’t have rookie status in 2026 and saying he’ll be the starting CF in 2025 are two different things.   This guy wasn’t a top 5 or top 10 pick.  Expecting him to progress fast enough to replace Mullins by the start of the 2025 season is asking a lot.  And I say that even though I agree with you that a .680-.710 OPS for him as a rookie would probably be adequate given his baserunning and defense.   

In any event, the O’s don’t need to make that judgment now.  Mullins almost undoubtedly will be here in 2024, and we’ll see how Bradfield does over the course of the year and the team will be in a much better position to judge if he couid take over CF at the beginning of 2025.   
 

[emmett16]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good question and I'm going to dodge it because I don't feel like doing the work to answer it.

I can't think of any team leaving a guy that could be a 3+ Win player in the minors.

I was talking about the Os.  I’m going to assume they will continue to operate similarly to how they have historically.  
 

Jordan Westburg comes to mind.  His output this year equates to a 3+ Win season.  It sure seemed like he was ready at the beginning of the year, if not even a little bit earlier. 
 

Im not offering my opinion of what they should do, but what I think they’ll do based on what they’ve done in the past. 
 

As it relates to the 2026 ROY, I think if they slow roll EBJ, he’d be a good candidate.  It’s not out of the realm of possibility and it doesn’t mean he’s a failed prospect.  

[emmett16]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os have plenty of respected guys in the clubhouse.

If Mullins is here in 2025, it’s because the Os don’t have another CF option. That’s possible and if that’s the case, so be it. I wouldn’t be too excited to trade him this offseason because of our lack of options for CF in 2024.

But if he is our best option, (going back to the actual point here), it’s likely because EBJ has struggled too much in the minors and that leaves plenty of doubt about whether or not he will be what the Os drafted him to be.

What if Mullins has a career year this year and is healthy?  He’d be pretty motivated with a ton of confidence to put up an equally good year in his walk year. 

Do I think that will happen? No.  But it’s not out of the realm of possibility.