ROY manipulation

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad, and Cowser should all get a shot at regular playing time this year. None of them should be limited to <130 AB's just to preserve rookie status for next year. I also don't think they need to start on the opening day roster. 

If there is any opportunity for manipulation, it would be to slow play this group to ensure they don't finish #2 and lose the extra year like we did with Adley! I doubt they will do that but you never know. 

If trying to get the pick, Basallo will be a candidate next year so slow playing this year's group will only cause more competition against ourselves next year. 

 

All valid points.  But is a lineup with more limited at bats for Mayo/Holliday/Kjerstad/Cowser going to net any of them ROY?  I'd think if there's a desire to manipulate to maximize ones chance for ROY, you'd maximize one (or two) of there at bats.

We've seen some projections, while we'd like to see these guys, it's unlikely they truly outperform the likes of Urias/Westburg/Hays/Santander in their first year.

After that, you'd hold them down to less than 130 ABs to focus on the same optimization for next year.

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

All valid points.  But is a lineup with more limited at bats for Mayo/Holliday/Kjerstad/Cowser going to net any of them ROY?  I'd think if there's a desire to manipulate to maximize ones chance for ROY, you'd maximize one (or two) of there at bats.

We've seen some projections, while we'd like to see these guys, it's unlikely they truly outperform the likes of Urias/Westburg/Hays/Santander in their first year.

After that, you'd hold them down to less than 130 ABs to focus on the same optimization for next year.

I just don't see any chance of holding these guys to 130 when they are ready or nearly ready to play now. 

Yes, there is big upside to finishing #1, but there is big downside risk to finishing #2. Trying to get smart with this can very easily backfire, whether you push guys to go for ROY or slow play them to go for the extra year. I think the system is good in that there are incentives/disincentives either way and basically we shouldn't try to get too greedy either way. If you were thinking of giving Gunnar 150 AB's in '22, it obviously makes sense to hold him to 129, but I don't see that being the case with any of our '24 rookie group. They should all be getting 400+. 

[MarCakes21]

 

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I just don't see any chance of holding these guys to 130 when they are ready or nearly ready to play now. 

Yes, there is big upside to finishing #1, but there is big downside risk to finishing #2. Trying to get smart with this can very easily backfire, whether you push guys to go for ROY or slow play them to go for the extra year. I think the system is good in that there are incentives/disincentives either way and basically we shouldn't try to get too greedy either way. If you were thinking of giving Gunnar 150 AB's in '22, it obviously makes sense to hold him to 129, but I don't see that being the case with any of our '24 rookie group. They should all be getting 400+. 

There's not room (currently) for 400 ABs for each of these guys.  You'd have to trade Mounty, Hays, Urias to give those ABs to 4 rookies.

[foxfield]

I think that Elias will not really go out of the way to manage ROY votes. If we were the Yankees it would be more likely. But these awards are done by the media and the media is not giving Baltimore 4 of these things in a row no matter what they do. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think that Elias will not really go out of the way to manage ROY votes. If we were the Yankees it would be more likely. But these awards are done by the media and the media is not giving Baltimore 4 of these things in a row no matter what they do. 

Why should the media favor the Yankees?

They've had two RoY since 1982.  For the record the Mariners have had five.

Did you think Judge wasn't a worthy selection?  What about Jeter in '96?

This fascination with the Yankees is just nonsense.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think that Elias will not really go out of the way to manage ROY votes. If we were the Yankees it would be more likely. But these awards are done by the media and the media is not giving Baltimore 4 of these things in a row no matter what they do. 

The media gave us three consecutive #1 overall prospects in baseball.   Maybe there’s no conspiracy against the Orioles?

[LookinUp]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Bradfield, if he’s going to be as good as we and the Os hope, should end the year in AAA this year and ready to be the OD CFer  in 2025.

I think this is like a 1 to 5% possibility. This is as orange colored glasses as it gets, IMO. You're probably off by 12 months. He has a lot of hit tool work to do.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think this is like a 1 to 5% possibility. This is as orange colored glasses as it gets, IMO. You're probably off by 12 months. He has a lot of hit tool work to do.

If he’s that far away, he shouldn’t have been drafted in the first round.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

 

There's not room (currently) for 400 ABs for each of these guys.  You'd have to trade Mounty, Hays, Urias to give those ABs to 4 rookies.

Well, I don't think all four are realistic ROY candidates but I also expect a trade of some kind. 

[emmett16]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If Bradfield is eligible in 2026, that will be a disappointment.

If it’s easy to fit him on the roster, the Os will be a disappointment. 

 

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  Trying to manipulate the ROY shouldn’t be a priority.  If it happens, great.

I agree, but it would be nice to have a couple horses in the race. 

 

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Bradfield, if he’s going to be as good as we and the Os hope, should end the year in AAA this year and ready to be the OD CFer  in 2025.

I think he’ll get slow played a bit while they work on the swing.   He could end the year in AAA and then play the bulk of 2025 in AAA and get an August call up.  I think a lot will depend on how Mullins ages over the next 2 years. 

[InsideCoroner]

9 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Cedric Mullins' legs will probably give out before the end of 2025 but if they hold together the lineup could be tough to break into.

I agree he would be Masataka Yoshida-ish by then, but they don't age control.     

Cedric will only turn 31 at the end of the 2025 season. You really think his legs will give out as a 30-year-old? If anything, I expect him to get traded before he hits free agency, in which case the logjam would resolve itself.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

If it’s easy to fit him on the roster, the Os will be a disappointment. 

 

I agree, but it would be nice to have a couple horses in the race. 

 

I think he’ll get slow played a bit while they work on the swing.   He could end the year in AAA and then play the bulk of 2025 in AAA and get an August call up.  I think a lot will depend on how Mullins ages over the next 2 years. 

He just turned 22 and comes from one of the best baseball colleges in the country and was taken in R1. Those guys tend to move fast, as they should.

If he still is struggling with his swing and offense by the end of the year, he’s likely going to be a failed first rounder, at least in teams of looking at him as the future CFer 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, InsideCoroner said:

Cedric will only turn 31 at the end of the 2025 season. You really think his legs will give out as a 30-year-old? If anything, I expect him to get traded before he hits free agency, in which case the logjam would resolve itself.

Not literally, but more like he will probably taper towards good not great at defense and baserunning.

At 28 leg issues cost him about 25-30% of the defensive innings he managed in 2021-2022, and only 3 of the 26 CF over 400 PA last year were older than that.    

[emmett16]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He just turned 22 and comes from one of the best baseball colleges in the country and was taken in R1. Those guys tend to move fast, as they should.

If he still is struggling with his swing and offense by the end of the year, he’s likely going to be a failed first rounder, at least in teams of looking at him as the future CFer 

My point was, him struggling wouldn’t be the only reason for him to have rookie status in 2026.  He could be tearing it up but not have a place to play, similar to the IF situation currently.  I think they are in a unique and advantageous position to where they can take their time on some guys and have them fully developed and still not have a spot right away.  Of course, there are a ton of variables.  Injuries, trades, poor performance all come in to play.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

My point was, him struggling wouldn’t be the only reason for him to have rookie status in 2026.  He could be tearing it up but not have a place to play, similar to the IF situation currently.  I think they are in a unique and advantageous position to where they can take their time on some guys and have them fully developed and still not have a spot right away.  Of course, there are a ton of variables.  Injuries, trades, poor performance all come in to play.  

If a plus centerfielder is tearing it up you find room for him.

You aren't going to have four guys that are more valuable taking spots.