ROY manipulation

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’m pretty sure Tony has made some comments and have seen mentioned in other places.  Mostly not picks and in the context of how much better he will be when he makes those adjustments.  Let me try and find.  

You aren’t exactly going out in a limb saying he needs to show improvement, even in the areas he is said to be advanced in. All players need to show improvement from when they are drafted.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he is very likely a GG contender from day 1 AND likely steals 50+ bases how the heck did he drop to 17th?

Stolen bases is a bit weird to look at because of the recent changes to the game but three players stole 50 bases last year.  So you think he is likely to be a top 5 guy in that category in his first year?

 

Not if he gets on base as rarely as Mateo.  

[MarCakes21]

23 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

2024

Cowser or Kjerstad would have a good shot to compile #s this year if we decided to move one of Santander/Hays. 

Mayo if for some reason he’s to OD 3rd basemen, but idk why we’d give up that extra year of control for three weeks this year. 

Holliday would be one of the favorites if we could sign him to an extension this offseason. 

2025

Going forward I could see that Kjerstad has is rookie eligibility for next year and we lose Santa and O’Hearn in FA. 

2026

Basallo if an extension is reached. EBJ if he’s the day one starter in CF to replace Mullins. EBJ would get his feet wet in September of 2025. 

This would be my plan

[Just Regular]

If the end of 2023 incumbents are 2B Westburg, 3B Urias, LF Hays, RF Santander, I think a small edge Mayo has on Holliday-Cowser-Kjerstad is the guy he's trying to overtake is a little bit less of an obstacle than the others.

2023 Urias' Statcast percentiles largely crashed across the board, including defense.

 

[Sports Guy]

Basallo will not have rookie status in 2026 unless he’s hurt or greatly underperforms going forward.

In fact, it’s more likely to be this years Gunnar than he has rookie status in 2026.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Basallo will not have rookie status in 2026 unless he’s hurt or greatly underperforms going forward.

In fact, it’s more likely to be this years Gunnar than he has rookie status in 2026.

It’s kind of funny to me how you are always careful to say that not all good prospects pan out to be good major leaguers, but at the same time you always have very high expectations for how quickly our prospects will move through the minors.  Basallo moved ultra fast last year, but this might be a year in which he needs to stay at one level, get his defense caught up to his offense and consolidate some of his offensive gains.  I’m not saying that’s what I expect, but it’s not an unlikely scenario, either.   And I won’t be concerned if that happens.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s kind of funny to me how you are always careful to say that not all good prospects pan out to be good major leaguers, but at the same time you always have very high expectations for how quickly our prospects will move through the minors.  Basallo moved ultra fast last year, but this might be a year in which he needs to stay at one level, get his defense caught up to his offense and consolidate some of his offensive gains.  I’m not saying that’s what I expect, but it’s not an unlikely scenario, either.   And I won’t be concerned if that happens.  

I don’t see how those 2 things correlate with each other. Lots of prospects do fail and the elite prospects tend to move quickly. 
 

What does one have to do with the other?  If you are trying to  say that they fail because they move quickly, there is absolutely zero evidence that supports that argument.

The elite players move fast because well, they are elite and the lesser competition doesn’t challenge them enough.

Basallo will be in AA to start the year, which you said towards the end of last year wouldn’t happen. So, if he goes to Bowie and continues to play at a high level, he will not be there for most of the year. They probably give him 2ish months and at the point, he goes to AAA sometime in June. From there, that is another 2ish months of playing at a high level in AAA and if those things happen, they could easily bring him up for the stretch run if they deem they need his bat.

That scenario is far more likely than him being 2 years away from his debut. 

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see how those 2 things correlate with each other. Lots of prospects do fail and the elite prospects tend to move quickly. 
 

What does one have to do with the other?  If you are trying to  say that they fail because they move quickly, there is absolutely zero evidence that supports that argument.

The elite players move fast because well, they are elite and the lesser competition doesn’t challenge them enough.

Basallo will be in AA to start the year, which you said towards the end of last year wouldn’t happen. So, if he goes to Bowie and continues to play at a high level, he will not be there for most of the year. They probably give him 2ish months and at the point, he goes to AAA sometime in June. From there, that is another 2ish months of playing at a high level in AAA and if those things happen, they could easily bring him up for the stretch run if they deem they need his bat.

That scenario is far more likely than him being 2 years away from his debut. 

No, I am not saying prospects fail because they move quickly.  Sometimes they do struggle more at first, and there may be the occasional guy who gets really screwed up by being rushed, but none of that was a point I was trying to make in my post.  I was merely observing that you tend to be very realistic in your assessment of how often prospects fail, but very optimistic in your assessment of how quickly prospects should be expected to move through a system.  In my opinion.  

Saying that, yes I expect Basallo to be ready for the majors before 2026.
 

[sportsfan8703]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see how those 2 things correlate with each other. Lots of prospects do fail and the elite prospects tend to move quickly. 
 

What does one have to do with the other?  If you are trying to  say that they fail because they move quickly, there is absolutely zero evidence that supports that argument.

The elite players move fast because well, they are elite and the lesser competition doesn’t challenge them enough.

Basallo will be in AA to start the year, which you said towards the end of last year wouldn’t happen. So, if he goes to Bowie and continues to play at a high level, he will not be there for most of the year. They probably give him 2ish months and at the point, he goes to AAA sometime in June. From there, that is another 2ish months of playing at a high level in AAA and if those things happen, they could easily bring him up for the stretch run if they deem they need his bat.

That scenario is far more likely than him being 2 years away from his debut. 

The bat might be on that trajectory, but getting to the upper minors might take longer to have his catcher defense up to snuff. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

No, I am not saying prospects fail because they move quickly.  Sometimes they do struggle more at first, and there may be the occasional guy who gets really screwed up by being rushed, but none of that was a point I was trying to make in my post.  I was merely observing that you tend to be very realistic in your assessment of how often prospects fail, but very optimistic in your assessment of how quickly prospects should be expected to move through a system.  In my opinion.  

Saying that, yes I expect Basallo to be ready for the majors before 2026.
 

There is no reason for the best prospects to not move quickly.  Well there is but it’s solely service time stuff, not some thought that they need all this extra development time.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is no reason for the best prospects to not move quickly.  Well there is but it’s solely service time stuff, not some thought that they need all this extra development time.

The O’s have shown that they will move prospects up the minor league levels quickly where warranted.  The step to the majors, not as much.  

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The O’s have shown that they will move prospects up the minor league levels quickly where warranted.  The step to the majors, not as much.  

I think he has handled the elite guys differently.

Gunnar (who wasn’t elite at first), Adley, GRod and now Holliday. Holliday has a legit chance at OD and should be up by June or so.

GRod and Adley came up relatively fast and it would have been faster if not for injuries and the Covid year.

So, I think how they handle the elite of the elite is different then the other top guys like Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad, etc…

Basallo isn’t going to come here and be asked to be the everyday catcher. He may not even catch at all for all we know, so I don’t think they bother holding him back because of that.

[SilverRocket]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

GRod and Adley came up relatively fast

Really? People complained here for nearly a year for each of them before they were actually called up.

I do think it'll be different going forward but I see those two as examples of being fairly slow to rise.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Really? People complained here for nearly a year for each of them before they were actually called up.

I do think it'll be different going forward but I see those two as examples of being fairly slow to rise.

Adley should have been faster but he wasn’t in AAA that long relative to other guys, especially if you take into account the injury to start 2022.