Will Ryan O'Hearn be traded?

[CaptainRedbeard]

48 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Spot on.  We need bench players.  There's no sense trading away valuable depth, and there's no sense having prospects in bench spots.  Let them play everyday in AAA to get reps.  

One vet that I do think is on thin ice is Cionel Perez.  We had the "luxury" of carrying him last year when he struggled, but that's because Irvin had an option, and Hall was being reworked in season.  This year Perez is slated to be one of three lefties in the pen with no options.  The other two being Coloumbe and Irvin.  Perez is even in his arb years now.  His performance is outweighed by the appeal of having an optionable spot in the pen.  Being as we now have some good AAA depth up/down arms.  Perez has to be lights out in ST.  

Perez finished the year strong enough that I don’t think he’s at risk for getting cut in Spring Training but he may not survive another bad start like last year. Baumann is the out of options RP most at risk, followed by Webb. I think both those guys go before Perez. Perez is a flawed pitcher because he’s going to run pretty subpar K/BB rates but he’s established himself as a really strong GB% lefty and there’s a spot for that. 

[sportsfan8703]

36 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Perez finished the year strong enough that I don’t think he’s at risk for getting cut in Spring Training but he may not survive another bad start like last year. Baumann is the out of options RP most at risk, followed by Webb. I think both those guys go before Perez. Perez is a flawed pitcher because he’s going to run pretty subpar K/BB rates but he’s established himself as a really strong GB% lefty and there’s a spot for that. 

Perez is our 3rd lefty with Hall and Vespi capable of filling in if we really need 3 lefties.  Both Hall and Vespi have options.  I think people are too down on Baumann because he hit is IP limit last year and ran out of gas.  Similarly why people are down on Wells.  We all heard so much about IP limits last year and it actually affected two of our relievers.  I really like Baumann going forward.

Even though Perez got results later in the season, he still never regained the 98mph he used to it, and hitters started laying off the high FB.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Spot on.  We need bench players.  There's no sense trading away valuable depth, and there's no sense having prospects in bench spots.  Let them play everyday in AAA to get reps.  

One vet that I do think is on thin ice is Cionel Perez.  We had the "luxury" of carrying him last year when he struggled, but that's because Irvin had an option, and Hall was being reworked in season.  This year Perez is slated to be one of three lefties in the pen with no options.  The other two being Coloumbe and Irvin.  Perez is even in his arb years now.  His performance is outweighed by the appeal of having an optionable spot in the pen.  Being as we now have some good AAA depth up/down arms.  Perez has to be lights out in ST.  

He pitched to a 1.37 ERA the final 27 games of last year.  I doubt he’s going anywhere.  

[Billy F-Face3]

I'm curious if Bruce Zimmerman will ever fulfill the potential that he flashed when he started the 2022 season on a heater as a starter. He's still here. And you gotta love the loyalty. Theres been spots in a season when he's been able to give other pitchers some rest when the bullpen was taxed and they needed the rest.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

He pitched to a 1.37 ERA the final 27 games of last year.  I doubt he’s going anywhere.  

I'm not sure how to check this, but I'm pretty sure that I heard during a telecast, or probably on here, that Perez had gotten incredibly lucky with the small amount of the his inherited runners being stranded after he left games.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I'm not sure how to check this, but I'm pretty sure that I heard during a telecast, or probably on here, that Perez had gotten incredibly lucky with the small amount of the his inherited runners being stranded after he left games.  

In the second half Pérez had a 3.04 FIP and 3.90 xFIP and allowed a .202/.302/.213 batting line. That SLG is not a typo - in 102 plate appearances he only allowed one extra base hit, a double. He had an absurd 73.1% ground ball rate in the second half.

Perez was bad in the first half, but very good in the second half no matter how you look at it. He really turned things around, I didn’t even realize he had been that lights out in the second half until I looked it up just now. If he’s healthy he’s not at risk for getting cut in Spring Training. 

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I'm curious if Bruce Zimmerman will ever fulfill the potential that he flashed when he started the 2022 season on a heater as a starter. He's still here. And you gotta love the loyalty. Theres been spots in a season when he's been able to give other pitchers some rest when the bullpen was taxed and they needed the rest.

Hopefully, core muscle surgery will do for Zimmermans career what it did for Mike Yaz’ career.

[Tony-OH]

23 hours ago, forphase1 said:

While that is true, the shift wasn't on the last couple months of the year when he hit a downward turn.  OPS by month.  May - .937, June .867, July .893, August - .710, Sept/Oct - .724.  Was his great May/June/July the 'real' Ryan O'Hearn, or did the real one simply reappear in August and that's what we can expect going forward?  Only time will tell, but I expect to see more of the August guy than the May one.  I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

O'Hearn's downward production as the season went on and his age are two things that I have concerns about. He as a nice story, but no way the Orioles should be going into 2024 expecting him to repeat his 1st half numbers over an entire season.

In 2022 with the Royals, he under performed his xWOBA (.330) with his wOBA (.272) by .048 points making him a nice potential breakout candidate. In 2023, he outperformed his xWOBA (.324) with his wOBA (.339) by .015 points suggesting more regression could be at hand in 2024 when he'll play at 30-years old. 

All I know is that he slashed .273/.293/.444/.736 from July 15th to the end of the season with a 46K to 5 BB ratio over 213 PAs. And that was with a high BABIP of .320. 

Right now, it's either him of Kjerstad on the team in the backup/in-the-mix RF/DH/1B role. I'm taking Kjerstad.

 

 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

O'Hearn's downward production as the season went on and his age are two things that I have concerns about. He as a nice story, but no way the Orioles should be going into 2024 expecting him to repeat his 1st half numbers over an entire season.

In 2022 with the Royals, he under performed his xWOBA (.330) with his wOBA (.272) by .048 points making him a nice potential breakout candidate. In 2023, he outperformed his xWOBA (.324) with his wOBA (.339) by .015 points suggesting more regression could be at hand in 2024 when he'll play at 30-years old. 

All I know is that he slashed .273/.293/.444/.736 from July 15th to the end of the season with a 46K to 5 BB ratio over 213 PAs. And that was with a high BABIP of .320. 

Right now, it's either him of Kjerstad on the team in the backup/in-the-mix RF/DH/1B role. I'm taking Kjerstad.

 

 

He’s 30 years old.  Why is that a concern?

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

He’s 30 years old.  Why is that a concern?

Are you being serious Clark?

Do we really have bring up the demise rates of average 30-somethings with a slow player's game skills? O'Hearn skills wise is a left-handed hitting Trey Mancini with less bat. 

Even if you aren't concerned over his turning 30, are you concerned that his .312/.361/.532/.893 slashline to start the year (155 PAs thru 7/14) was at least partially driven by an unsustainable .370 BABIP? 

O'Hearn was a nice story, but he turned back into a little better version o the pumpkin he was before coming to the Orioles. He should have no role on this team. Santander can play 1B better than O'Hearn and Adley was pretty good in the minors. 

Kjerstad belongs on this opening day roster and that will be tough to do if O'Hearn is taking up a roster spot. I'm hoping he can be traded for value but I get a feel he's going to end up DFA'd at some point or traded for a low level minor leaguer. Maybe the A's will give up somebody for him?

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Are you being serious Clark?

Do we really have bring up the demise rates of average 30-somethings with a slow player's game skills? O'Hearn skills wise is a left-handed hitting Trey Mancini with less bat. 

Even if you aren't concerned over his turning 30, are you concerned that his .312/.361/.532/.893 slashline to start the year (155 PAs thru 7/14) was at least partially driven by an unsustainable .370 BABIP? 

O'Hearn was a nice story, but he turned back into a little better version o the pumpkin he was before coming to the Orioles. He should have no role on this team. Santander can play 1B better than O'Hearn and Adley was pretty good in the minors. 

Kjerstad belongs on this opening day roster and that will be tough to do if O'Hearn is taking up a roster spot. I'm hoping he can be traded for value but I get a feel he's going to end up DFA'd at some point or traded for a low level minor leaguer. Maybe the A's will give up somebody for him?

Sorry I asked.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

O'Hearn's downward production as the season went on and his age are two things that I have concerns about. He as a nice story, but no way the Orioles should be going into 2024 expecting him to repeat his 1st half numbers over an entire season.

In 2022 with the Royals, he under performed his xWOBA (.330) with his wOBA (.272) by .048 points making him a nice potential breakout candidate. In 2023, he outperformed his xWOBA (.324) with his wOBA (.339) by .015 points suggesting more regression could be at hand in 2024 when he'll play at 30-years old. 

All I know is that he slashed .273/.293/.444/.736 from July 15th to the end of the season with a 46K to 5 BB ratio over 213 PAs. And that was with a high BABIP of .320. 

Right now, it's either him of Kjerstad on the team in the backup/in-the-mix RF/DH/1B role. I'm taking Kjerstad.

 

 

Kjerstad all day.  As you explained, O'Hearn is a serious regression candidate.  I would expect him to have closer to a .700 OPS than .860.  What's the point of having "the best farm in baseball" if we don't let these young guys play?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Kjerstad all day.  As you explained, O'Hearn is a serious regression candidate.  I would expect him to have closer to a .700 OPS than .860.  What's the point of having "the best farm in baseball" if we don't let these young guys play?

You mean like Mountcastle last year and in his career?  Yeah, probably.  ZiPS projects him at .762.   Of course, it also projects Kjerstad at .713.   

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Are you being serious Clark?

Do we really have bring up the demise rates of average 30-somethings with a slow player's game skills? O'Hearn skills wise is a left-handed hitting Trey Mancini with less bat. 

Even if you aren't concerned over his turning 30, are you concerned that his .312/.361/.532/.893 slashline to start the year (155 PAs thru 7/14) was at least partially driven by an unsustainable .370 BABIP? 

O'Hearn was a nice story, but he turned back into a little better version o the pumpkin he was before coming to the Orioles. He should have no role on this team. Santander can play 1B better than O'Hearn and Adley was pretty good in the minors. 

Kjerstad belongs on this opening day roster and that will be tough to do if O'Hearn is taking up a roster spot. I'm hoping he can be traded for value but I get a feel he's going to end up DFA'd at some point or traded for a low level minor leaguer. Maybe the A's will give up somebody for him?

If there's one thing I criticize Elias for, it's his tendency to block his own prospects and stick with veterans for way too long. Odor, Frazier, Mateo. I think Elias got really lucky with Hicks staying hot for a couple months, and Hicks wound up blocking Cowser.

I really don't want O'Hearn blocking Kjerstad and Cowser. But I think it's going to happen early in the season.

[AnythingO's]

9 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

If there's one thing I criticize Elias for, it's his tendency to block his own prospects and stick with veterans for way too long. Odor, Frazier, Mateo. I think Elias got really lucky with Hicks staying hot for a couple months, and Hicks wound up blocking Cowser. I really don't want O'Hearn blocking Kjerstad and Cowser. But I think it's going to happen early in the season.

I agree with this but wonder how much is ME vs Hyde's wishes. Hyde didn't use Cowser or Ortiz when they came up but ME announced Westburg who did get playing time. Was that ME sending a message or was Westburg just a "finished product"?? Hyde likes his vets.