One possible reason Elias has not made a big trade...

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What’s the difference if a trade is made today or February 7?   

Some targets might be gone.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some targets might be gone.

I was responding to someone worried about a logjam of outfielders in our system.   If some of those players are traded before ST is over as opposed to today, regardless of the trade target, what’s the difference.  He referenced foot dragging in relation to clearing up that logjam.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I was responding to someone worried about a logjam of outfielders in our system.   If some of those players are traded before ST is over as opposed to today, regardless of the trade target, what’s the difference.  He referenced foot dragging in relation to clearing up that logjam.

What I said isn't less true.

Whomever we would be trading for might not be available at a later date.

[OriolesMagic83]

At the very least, players who don't have a reasonable chance at a spot on the 2024 O's like Stowers and Mateo should be traded ASAP. 

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, SemperFi said:

But I believe you have noted the accuracy of his arm-to measure an OF arm simply on velocity (only measure I see) is shortsided in my view.  While he may not have the desired arm velocity for RF accuracy is critical in relays where the transfer is as important (or more so) than speed.  For an average MLB player running at 27 feet per second a poor transfer costing .1 of a second that would equate to almost 3 feet-a huge difference. "The importance of accuracy goes without saying. The ability to hit cutoff men and throw to bases is more important than throwing with max velocity from the outfield. Any scout and coach will say they prefer 85 mph and accurate over 92 mph and wild".  Another young Orioles OF who has a stronger arm IMO struggled with accuracy and it was frustrating to watch IF's have to adjust to relays that were off target.  

I don't want to give the impression that I am discounting your scouting take-especially since you have seen much more of him than any of us-and frankly I value your input more than national scouting write ups-I just think that people often value velocity over accuracy and that's a facile argument.

https://redseamplanet.com/outfield-arm-strength-what-is-good-velo-at-every-level/

 

Are your suggesting I don't take accuracy into account when I discuss throwing for outfielders. I hope not because I do take that into consideration. Here's the thing with Kjerstad, his throws are very inconsistent. He'll make a nice throw, then make a throw that would make Johnny Damon proud. Sometimes he's accurate, and sometimes he's not. 

I agree that pure arm strength is not the only thing to judge an outfielder's arm. Alex Ochoa had one of the strongest arms I ever saw, but I also saw him throw a ball about 15 rows deep into the 3rd base stands one time.

 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

What’s the difference if a trade is made today or February 7?   

Probably about a hundred pages or so on various threads.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

What I said isn't less true.

Whomever we would be trading for might not be available at a later date.

It isn’t any less true.  It just has nothing to do with my post which you quoted.

[sportsfan8703]

The Astros got a little lucky with the Verlander and Cole trades. Sticky stuff helped both. Verlander was in big trouble and the as actually an August waiver trade.

Cease would be similar to what Cole was before he was traded. But no sticky stuff to make him magically better and we don’t have a Micheal Feliz and Joe Musgrave to trade. 

The deadline might be a better time to make a trade when our next tier of bats like Horvath and Wagner become more well known.  Plus, Povich, DeLeon, and Baumeister, might be rated higher nationally. 

[24fps]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Astros got a little lucky with the Verlander and Cole trades. Sticky stuff helped both. Verlander was in big trouble and the as actually an August waiver trade.

Cease would be similar to what Cole was before he was traded. But no sticky stuff to make him magically better and we don’t have a Micheal Feliz and Joe Musgrave to trade. 

The deadline might be a better time to make a trade when our next tier of bats like Horvath and Wagner become more well known.  Plus, Povich, DeLeon, and Baumeister, might be rated higher nationally. 

Time marches on whether or not the next tier of bats are ready.  Around 100 games will be in the books by the next deadline.  All our untraded but currently MLB-ready minor league players will be that much older and in many cases that much less attractive.  The time for Elias to make at least a couple of decisive moves is before the next 8 weeks or so are up.

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

What’s the difference if a trade is made today or February 7?   

I feel like they need to move multiple on/off the MLB roster. It’s really a problem we haven’t had to deal with in years. Plus if a trade is done for Cease, let’s just say it’s for Cowser , Norby, and the couple of minor league pitchers. They still need to make room for Ortiz, Stowers, Kjerstad , And maybe Mayo & Holiday. So at some point they need to clear at least 2-4 of  Mateo, Urias , Mounty, O’Hearn, Hays, Santander. they certainly could foot drag on Mayo and or Holiday but we still need to clear a few. 

Edited January 22 by Roll Tide

[Guest]

12 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Sure.  And the goal is to have a good team every year.  They finished 7th in pitching last year.  They aren’t planning their entire dev program around 2024 success.  

But 11th in starters era, with virtually zero injuries barring Means from the season before. I would be very surprised if the rotation stays as healthy as it did again

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What I said isn't less true.

Whomever we would be trading for might not be available at a later date.

The other part of that is that teams are proactively filling needs

[SemperFi]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Are your suggesting I don't take accuracy into account when I discuss throwing for outfielders. I hope not because I do take that into consideration. Here's the thing with Kjerstad, his throws are very inconsistent. He'll make a nice throw, then make a throw that would make Johnny Damon proud. Sometimes he's accurate, and sometimes he's not. 

I agree that pure arm strength is not the only thing to judge an outfielder's arm. Alex Ochoa had one of the strongest arms I ever saw, but I also saw him throw a ball about 15 rows deep into the 3rd base stands one time.

 

Hi Tony,

No, actually the opposite as per my last paragraph.  To the best of my knowledge there is no way to judge accuracy and I was bemoaning the fact I often see OF arms measured simply on velocity which IMO is shortsighted.

Where I got it wrong is I remembered the accurate part of your assessment not the inconsistent part.    "His throws are accurate but inconsistent."

My larger point being I don't necessarily trust national scouting reports on defense.  Most of us see OF prospects only through highlights which can be misleading, you see them often and all of their warts which is why I trust your scouting much more than national publications.  

 

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Hi Tony,

No, actually the opposite as per my last paragraph.  To the best of my knowledge there is no way to judge accuracy and I was bemoaning the fact I often see OF arms measured simply on velocity which IMO is shortsighted.

Where I got it wrong is I remembered the accurate part of your assessment not the inconsistent part.    "His throws are accurate but inconsistent."

My larger point being I don't necessarily trust national scouting reports on defense.  Most of us see OF prospects only through highlights which can be misleading, you see them often and all of their warts which is why I trust your scouting much more than national publications.  

 

Gotcha. Defense is one of the hardest thing to scout without data (statcast) or seeing a player often. A lot of national publications don't have the time or data to really judge defense so they go off a scouting contact that may or may not have seen the player all that much. So they regurgitate previous reports and run with it.

I'll be honest, defense is the one area where I end up trying to do a lot of video work on players I really want to evaluate, but even then it's time consuming. There is no way to easily find defensive plays of minor league players so if I didn't see them a ton defensively while watching games, I usually end up going back and pulling up games in which he made errors. That typically at least let's me see what he struggles with.

I wish MILB TV would add a search capability for defense.

[webbrick2010]

On 1/20/2024 at 10:39 AM, Frobby said:

I’ll keep saying it: ask me about this when the offseason is over.   I was saying in December that I didn’t think Elias would move until the second half of January or later.   We’re barely into the second half of January now.   There’s still  four weeks until pitchers and catchers report.   Plenty of time for something to happen.  I’ll be shocked if we don’t come to camp with another veteran starting pitcher.   It’s just a matter of whether it will be via free agency or trade, and how good that pitcher will be.   I’ve lowered my expectations a bit, but a big trade for a clear upgrade to our rotation remains a solid possibility so I’m not going to speculate now on why it didn’t happen, when it still might.  

Ditto, and I will add that he may prefer to wait until the trade deadline, when he has a better idea or what he has and what he needs. A few key injuries or underperformance in the first half of the season can bring things into better focus