One possible reason Elias has not made a big trade...

[Roll Tide]

44 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I still think the teams should look at a trade of Cease for your catcher. Both are all-star players. Neither of their numbers scream "superstar" to me though. 

This is a more ridiculous idea than most of the crap over on the Sox Board. Adley is the top rated catcher by many outlets in baseball with 4 years of control. 

[Safelykept]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This is a more ridiculous idea than most of the crap over on the Sox Board. Adley is the top rated catcher by many outlets in baseball with 4 years of control. 

He's Talking about James McCann.

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As @RZNJpointed out, the poster Greg775 who posts at Soxtalk has denied that he is posting on OH.   IMO this is a troll just trying to provoke a rise out of us.   If that’s wrong, then it’s someone who is, um, not very sophisticated.  

Either way, he doesn't belong here. He's gone.

[Safelykept]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Either way, he doesn't belong here. He's gone.

Come on Tony let him stay Hes funny. The other day he offered a trade that would not necessitate a CWS complete rebuild involving Major League ready talent, a catcher that hit 20 Bombs and a certain young SS thay hit 28 Home Runs For Cease.

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Come on Tony let him stay Hes funny. The other day he offered a trade that would not necessitate a CWS complete rebuild involving Major League ready talent, a catcher that hit 20 Bombs and a certain young SS thay hit 28 Home Runs For Cease.

Progress?  He dropped the Gunnar ask.  At this rate we’ll have him fixed in a couple of weeks.

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Mayo might have a future at DH. But I’m betting they’ll try and stick him at 1B and trade RMC. 

I think they like players that can play a bunch of positions. I expect Mayo to play 1B/3B/RF at the MLB level until he proves he can’t handle one of them. same with Basallo being a C/DH tandem with adley, Westburg and Gunnar playing around the IF

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

...is that he considers none of our best young players or prospects as truly expendable... YET. 

Obviously, current studs Henderson (22.7) and Rutschman (26.1) are not be dealt.

• Holliday (20.3)  is the game's top prospect and is about as untouchable as one would expect.  While he shows promise at SS, he currently projects as our future 2B.  I suspect he'll start the season splitting action at 2B and SS in Norfolk and take over at 2B in Baltimore as soon as he's deemed ready.  With that said, we shouldn't discount the possibility of him breaking camp with the big club. 
• Westburg (25.1) is a promising player and is expected to be our starting 2B or 3B, pending a number of scenarios. Perhaps he's not expendable without knowing whether Holliday breaks camp with us at 2B, or even Mayo at 3B.  Neither seems likely.  Gunnar could move to 3B with Ortiz taking over at SS, but, again, it's not currently known how things will shake out.  Until that shaking occurs, Westburg seems valuable moving forward, especially if Mayo shows no improvement at 3B, coupled with Gunnar remaining at SS.  Westburg could be a super utility guy as soon as some point later this season, though if he has no starting spot, his trade availability increases.
• Ortiz (25.7) has nothing left to prove at AAA.  As noted above, he may be our new SS, pushing Gunnar over to 3B.  However, with Gunnar establishing himself as a quality defender at SS, it's not yet clear whether the O's would seek to move him for Ortiz.  While Ortiz could start at 2B,  it would be reasonable to expect that he'd instead be inserted as our starting SS.  Some point out that Ortiz can handle 3B as well, making him a possible utility guy, but one might think that his value as a major league ready starting SS would be better utilized in trade.
•  Mayo (22.3) is rightfully among the top prospects in the game, mostly based on his middle-of-the-order offensive profile.  The unknown is his defensive position.  He has come up as a 3B in the minors, with some time at 1B and RF as well. Determining his defensive home will be is among the more interesting storylines for the upcoming season.  Some hope that will be at 3B, though even the kindest estimates have him as average at best.  RF or 1B seem like solid alternatives, with his rocket arm probably best served in RF.  1B could be in play with neither Mountcastle or O'Hearn  secure at 1B in the long term.  Like the others listed here, Mayo is one of many puzzle pieces with currently unknown destinations.
• Basallo (19.6) is unlikely to factor into our plans this season, but as yet another great top prospect, his meteoric ascension may show no signs of slowing.  Even with Rutschman securely entrenched at catcher, Basallo could push for inclusion on the team by year's end.  I wouldn't go so far as to call him untouchable, but he's special enough for that to be given serious consideration.
• Norby (23.8) has a bat that seems ready for the big leagues, but with no obvious defensive home, his future in Baltimore is muddied.  He can play 2B in a pinch but would not be an option there long term, and may be destined to be a DH/LF.  Of all of our prospects, Norby stands out as the one that actually is expendable, but he alone may not be able to bring back the sort of difference maker we'd want.
• Kjerstad (25.1) and Cowser (24.0) are both ready for the show and with the entire outfield's future in doubt, there are opportunities for both. With that said, Kjerstad's defense in RF could push him to DH/1B.  Cowser seems primed to push Hays for playing time in LF, and while Mullins has no heir in CF and may remain until Bradfield is deemed ready, Cowser may see time there as well.  Santander seems secure as our starting RF, but as a FA at year's end, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him dealt.

*ages as of opening day are listed in parentheses

Based on these many scenarios, things may become more clear this Spring, enabling Elias to pull off a big deal, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him waiting until the deadline to pull the trigger.  Thoughts?

Nice post.  Thanks for taking the time.   Two points:

Kjerstad:    You say Kjerstad is ready for the  majors.   Well his bat probably is.   But defensively he has played 180 games in the minors and majors in the field.   Are we really sure he can't learn to be a better outfielder?   Does he need to play at AAA longer to be  prepared to play right or first baseman?   Unless Elias is ready to say Kjerstad is only a DH that may not be the outcome.   The O's probably have better defensive right fielders (Cowser and Santander) and first basemens (Mountcastle and O'Hearn).

Norby:  He is not a terrible 2B defensively.  He is probably average compared to the league.  The O's just have three guys that can play 2B at a higher level.  Ortiz,  Westburg and Holliday are probably all much better at 2B defensively.   Norby needs to be traded because he is blocked but let's not down play his average defense at 2B.

On your overall question:   Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser are ready for the majors. There is space for these guys if McKenna and Urias are traded or DFA'd.   

Spring Training is to see how close Holliday is  and  how  defensively ready  Kjerstad is in right field or do they  need more time at AAA.   Mayo at AAA.  Basallo at AA.  Norby needs to be traded.

If Holliday goes to AAA  Elias gets to evaluate Ortiz and Westburg in the majors.  That evaluation includes which of the three are better and when.  They all have options.

When Mayo is ready there is a determination that needs to be made on O'Hearn.  

There is a way to make a trade of one or more the these prospects for the pitcher but frankly  I value the 6 years of these prospects more than the pitcher.   I think Elias can add Paxton for one year which I think is a better use of resources.

 

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Good recap, well done. The only nit pick is that Mayo has only reportedly been working in RF, not that he has any professional experience there.

At the end of the day, Elias has more major league ready players available to him than he has playing time. Sure, having depth is nice, but it's not like you can just plug and play rookies in the middle of the season and expect good results because most take some adjustment time. 

 My personal opinion is the Orioles see their 2024 starting infield as:

1B: Mountcastle
2B: Westburg
SS: Ortiz
3B: Henderson

Urias, Mateo, and O'Hearn are all backup plans though I expect Mateo to be the utility guy because of his ability to play SS and the outfield, hit left-handers a bit, and of course his speed.

No matter what they say, I think Holliday and Mayo will start the year in AAA.

The outfield is where it gets really interesting:

With an an outfield that seems set with:

LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander

Where does that leave Kjerstad and Cowser? Kjerstad should be on this team instead of O'Hearn, with Santander moving to 1B and Kjerstad to RF when when he's not DHing. There is probably 400 PAs for Kjerstad if O'Hearn is moved.

I'm not sure the Orioles are willing to bring up Cowser as a 4th outfielder so I would imagine without moves, he's back to AAA.

Norby is the guy that will either need to show that he can play outfield well enough to compete with McKenna and Hilliard for 4th/5th outfielder but if not he's going back to AAA. He's a traditional slow starter so that might be for the best anyways but I hope they play him a lot in the outfield if he goes back.

I just hope that guys who go back to AAA don't sulk. At some point it's got to be mentally tiresome to be playing in AAA when you know you are good enough to play in the majors somewhere. 

Thanks Tony.  I agree with you that the infield you showed above is our likeliest to start the season.  I hope so anyway.  I don't think Hays is set in LF, as I see Cowser platooning with him.  Hays' career OPS v RHP is .738 with an OPS+ of 97, while his career OPS v LHP is .779 with an OPS+ of 107.  I think Cowser would be better against RHP than Hays and may eventually displace Hays altogether by year's end.  Just my own personal take... I could be wrong.

 

 

[Guest]

At some point you start to devalue your prospects by aging them in AAA. If we get another 2 weeks of Ortiz in MLB this season and then have him at age 26 next offseason, I’d say that’s malpractice, even without considering that he deserves to be starting his career somewhere

[Greg Pappas]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Nice post.  Thanks for taking the time.   Two points:

Norby:  He is not a terrible 2B defensively.  He is probably average compared to the league.  The O's just have three guys that can play 2B at a higher level.  Ortiz,  Westburg and Holliday are probably all much better at 2B defensively.   Norby needs to be traded because he is blocked but let's not down play his average defense at 2B.

 

From @Tony-OH's writeup on Norby in his November, 2022 Top Prospects feature:

 

Quote

Defensively, Norby is not going to provide much value at second base. While he showed improvements in limiting his throwing errors, he still struggles to get his feet under him well and is inconsistent. His range is suspect and he turns the double play a bit slow. He just never looks real smooth out there, but if a team is willing to put up with the below average defense, the bat should play well for the position. He did play 11 games in left field including 8 starts.

Now, if Tony's opinion/information on Norby's D at 2B has changed since then, I submit I could be wrong, but I have not read anything that supports that.  Tony?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

At some point you start to devalue your prospects by aging them in AAA. If we get another 2 weeks of Ortiz in MLB this season and then have him at age 26 next offseason, I’d say that’s malpractice, even without considering that he deserves to be starting his career somewhere

 No question. I would be interested to know this for sure but my guess is that prospects are older right now because of the COVID year nonsense. 
 

So, you may just have to suck it up and deal with that fact but to sit there and not do these players a favor and get them up here when needed is wrong.

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy it Greg. I don’t think we need to find excuses for Elias. He has to prove that he can make a big deal for a team trying to win. He has yet to prove that. There is risk in everything you do. 

I'm not looking to excuse Elias, but rather provide a possible reason he wants to wait until making a big move, as he's thus far been unwilling to meet the asking price(s).  Again, just a possible reason.  

[Greg Pappas]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 No question. I would be interested to know this for sure but my guess is that prospects are older right now because of the COVID year nonsense. 
 

So, you may just have to suck it up and deal with that fact but to sit there and not do these players a favor and get them up here when needed is wrong.

True.  FWIW and unless traded, I see Ortiz, Cowser, and Kjerstad with the big league club to start the season. Norby, Holliday, and Mayo are likely set for AAA, though Norby seems the most likely trade candidate among our prospects.    

[Aristotelian]

Elias absolutely values prospects and understands that not all of them are going to succeed. If he is going to trade prospects it has to be for a compelling return. 

[Moose Milligan]

Is there some MLB GM Infinity Gauntlet where GMs have to gather specific stones in order to test themselves as general managers? And is one of those MLB GM Infinity Stones “have to trade prospects for great MLB talent” upon which they’ll unlock a World Series championship?