One possible reason Elias has not made a big trade...

[Greg Pappas]

...is that he considers none of our best young players or prospects as truly expendable... YET. 

Obviously, current studs Henderson (22.7) and Rutschman (26.1) will not be dealt.

• Holliday (20.3)  is the game's top prospect and is about as untouchable as one would expect.  While he shows promise at SS, he currently projects as our future 2B.  I suspect he'll start the season splitting action at 2B and SS in Norfolk and take over at 2B in Baltimore as soon as he's deemed ready.  With that said, we shouldn't discount the possibility of him breaking camp with the big club. 
• Westburg (25.1) is a promising player and is expected to be our starting 2B or 3B, pending a number of scenarios. Perhaps he's not expendable without knowing whether Holliday breaks camp with us at 2B, or even Mayo at 3B.  Neither seems likely.  Gunnar could move to 3B with Ortiz taking over at SS, but, again, it's not currently known how things will shake out.  Until that shaking occurs, Westburg seems valuable moving forward, especially if Mayo shows no improvement at 3B, coupled with Gunnar remaining at SS.  Westburg could be a super utility guy as soon as some point later this season, though if he has no starting spot, his trade availability increases.
• Ortiz (25.7) has nothing left to prove at AAA.  As noted above, he may be our new SS, pushing Gunnar over to 3B.  However, with Gunnar establishing himself as a quality defender at SS, it's not yet clear whether the O's would seek to move him for Ortiz.  While Ortiz could start at 2B,  it would be reasonable to expect that he'd instead be inserted as our starting SS.  Some point out that Ortiz can handle 3B as well, making him a possible utility guy, but one might think that his value as a major league ready starting SS would be better utilized in trade.
•  Mayo (22.3) is rightfully among the top prospects in the game, mostly based on his middle-of-the-order offensive profile.  The unknown is his defensive position.  He has come up as a 3B in the minors, with some time at 1B and RF as well. Determining his defensive home will be is among the more interesting storylines for the upcoming season.  Some hope that will be at 3B, though even the kindest estimates have him as average at best.  RF or 1B seem like solid alternatives, with his rocket arm probably best served in RF.  1B could be in play with neither Mountcastle or O'Hearn  secure at 1B in the long term.  Like the others listed here, Mayo is one of many puzzle pieces with currently unknown destinations.
• Basallo (19.6) is unlikely to factor into our plans this season, but as yet another great top prospect, his meteoric ascension may show no signs of slowing.  Even with Rutschman securely entrenched at catcher, Basallo could push for inclusion on the team by year's end.  I wouldn't go so far as to call him untouchable, but he's special enough for that to be given serious consideration.
• Norby (23.8) has a bat that seems ready for the big leagues, but with no obvious defensive home, his future in Baltimore is muddied.  He can play 2B in a pinch but would not be an option there long term, and may be destined to be a DH/LF.  Of all of our prospects, Norby stands out as the one that actually is expendable, but he alone may not be able to bring back the sort of difference maker we'd want.
• Kjerstad (25.1) and Cowser (24.0) are both ready for the show and with the entire outfield's future in doubt, there are opportunities for both. With that said, Kjerstad's defense in RF could push him to DH/1B.  Cowser seems primed to push Hays for playing time in LF, and while Mullins has no heir in CF and may remain until Bradfield is deemed ready, Cowser may see time there as well.  Santander seems secure as our starting RF, but as a FA at year's end, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him dealt.

*ages as of opening day are listed in parentheses

Based on these many scenarios, things may become more clear this Spring, enabling Elias to pull off a big deal, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him waiting until the deadline to pull the trigger.  Thoughts?

Edited January 20 by Greg Pappas
"will not be dealt", rather than "are not be dealt"

[Can_of_corn]

I think those questions on defense should have been answered by now.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t buy it Greg. I don’t think we need to find excuses for Elias. He has to prove that he can make a big deal for a team trying to win. He has yet to prove that. There is risk in everything you do. 

[Tony-OH]

Good recap, well done. The only nit pick is that Mayo has only reportedly been working in RF, not that he has any professional experience there.

At the end of the day, Elias has more major league ready players available to him than he has playing time. Sure, having depth is nice, but it's not like you can just plug and play rookies in the middle of the season and expect good results because most take some adjustment time. 

 My personal opinion is the Orioles see their 2024 starting infield as:

1B: Mountcastle
2B: Westburg
SS: Ortiz
3B: Henderson

Urias, Mateo, and O'Hearn are all backup plans though I expect Mateo to be the utility guy because of his ability to play SS and the outfield, hit left-handers a bit, and of course his speed.

No matter what they say, I think Holliday and Mayo will start the year in AAA.

The outfield is where it gets really interesting:

With an an outfield that seems set with:

LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander

Where does that leave Kjerstad and Cowser? Kjerstad should be on this team instead of O'Hearn, with Santander moving to 1B and Kjerstad to RF when when he's not DHing. There is probably 400 PAs for Kjerstad if O'Hearn is moved.

I'm not sure the Orioles are willing to bring up Cowser as a 4th outfielder so I would imagine without moves, he's back to AAA.

Norby is the guy that will either need to show that he can play outfield well enough to compete with McKenna and Hilliard for 4th/5th outfielder but if not he's going back to AAA. He's a traditional slow starter so that might be for the best anyways but I hope they play him a lot in the outfield if he goes back.

I just hope that guys who go back to AAA don't sulk. At some point it's got to be mentally tiresome to be playing in AAA when you know you are good enough to play in the majors somewhere. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy it Greg. I don’t think we need to find excuses for Elias. He has to prove that he can make a big deal for a team trying to win. He has yet to prove that. There is risk in everything you do. 

One thing we have not really explored is why Elias has not been able to move his position prospects for pitching prospects. I think this is why he changed his drafting philosophy last year because he realized that teams don't trade starting pitching prospects for positional prospects very often. 

The grow the bats, acquire the arms drafting philosophy has been a pretty big question mark so far, and until he makes a trade for a major league veteran #1-#3 starting pitcher, or trades from his positional depth and acquires starting pitching prospects, I will agree with you that this part of his GM skills is still up for evaluation.

[Frobby]

I’ll keep saying it: ask me about this when the offseason is over.   I was saying in December that I didn’t think Elias would move until the second half of January or later.   We’re barely into the second half of January now.   There’s still  four weeks until pitchers and catchers report.   Plenty of time for something to happen.  I’ll be shocked if we don’t come to camp with another veteran starting pitcher.   It’s just a matter of whether it will be via free agency or trade, and how good that pitcher will be.   I’ve lowered my expectations a bit, but a big trade for a clear upgrade to our rotation remains a solid possibility so I’m not going to speculate now on why it didn’t happen, when it still might.  

[btdart20]

Any team with budgetary constraints must have a very high bar for trading any top 25 prospect.  Which is why Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo are virtually untouchable.  

22 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I still think the teams should look at a trade of Cease for your catcher. Both are all-star players. Neither of their numbers scream "superstar" to me though. 

Adley?  Seriously?  

[Roll Tide]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t buy it Greg. I don’t think we need to find excuses for Elias. He has to prove that he can make a big deal for a team trying to win. He has yet to prove that. There is risk in everything you do. 

I agree with this and we have guys that need to be purged. Stowers and Ortiz got about 30 ABs each spread over weeks. They guys are wasting away waiting for a fair opportunity. Hyde switched back and forth from Mateo, Urias, and Frazier in the infield. Make some room to clear a path or deal them for lower minors prospects if needed. I have not been impressed with his ability to do a trade. I can’t believe we could do better than Flaherty. And not every GM is going to be unreasonable and ask for Holiday.

[Safelykept]

28 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I still think the teams should look at a trade of Cease for your catcher. Both are all-star players. Neither of their numbers scream "superstar" to me though. 

Yeah but that was 2019. Catcher (Backup?) You would really trade Cease for James McCann? You're not getting enough.

[Safelykept]

9 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Any team with budgetary constraints must have a very high bar for trading any top 25 prospect.  Which is why Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo are virtually untouchable.  

Adley?  Seriously?  

No McCann Hes a CWS  troll, Troll back. See my post

[24fps]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Where does that leave Kjerstad and Cowser? Kjerstad should be on this team instead of O'Hearn, with Santander moving to 1B and Kjerstad to RF when when he's not DHing. There is probably 400 PAs for Kjerstad if O'Hearn is moved.
 

O'Hearn has an option left so if he's not traded, Kjerstad could take his place with a good spring training.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Yeah but that was 2019. Catcher (Backup?) You would really trade Cease for James McCann? You're not getting enough.

As @RZNJpointed out, the poster Greg775 who posts at Soxtalk has denied that he is posting on OH.   IMO this is a troll just trying to provoke a rise out of us.   If that’s wrong, then it’s someone who is, um, not very sophisticated.  

[dystopia]

Mayo might have a future at DH. But I’m betting they’ll try and stick him at 1B and trade RMC. 

[interloper]

It is interesting that really the only players that are truly blocked are Ortiz and Norby (and Stowers I guess). But the literal second Urias or Mateo is injured, Ortiz will be on the active roster if he's not there on day 1 with a Urias trade or whatever. 

And Norby is still fairly young so him spending another majority of a season in AAA is not overly egregious as a depth piece similar to Stowers.

Cowser and Kjerstad can both make the team at the expense of McKenna if they want to go that route. 

So yeah Elias isn't under as much pressure as it seems to trade these guys, from his perspective probably.

 

[Safelykept]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As @RZNJpointed out, the poster Greg775 who posts at Soxtalk has denied that he is posting on OH.   IMO this is a troll just trying to provoke a rise out of us.   If that’s wrong, then it’s someone who is, um, not very sophisticated.  

Its not maybe its definitely . So Troll back as per my post.