Austin Hays: 2023 year in review and 2024 forecast

[Frobby]

To kill some time while waiting for spring training to start, I was thinking of doing a thread like this on all the main Orioles players, using the data I collected every 18 games last season.   Let me know if you think this is worthwhile, and if you like the format.   I'm traveling from Jan. 24-31 so I probably won't get too far with this project before I leave town, but I'll try to get two or three done before then if there's interest.

Today, we'll start with Austin Hays.   His final line for 2023 was: 144 games, 566 PA, 520 AB, 76 R, 143 H, 36 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 5 SB, 1 CS, 38 BB, 141 K's, .275/.325/.444, 114 OPS+, 2.5 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR.  Defensively, he was nominated for a Gold Glove, accruing 5 Rdrs, 4 Rtot, 7.0 UZR and -1 OAA.   He played errorless ball and had 4 outfleld assists.

It was an uneven season for Hays, which broke down like this in nine 18-game segments (all numbers cumulative):

rWAR	rDRS	OPS	fWAR	UZR	wOBA	xwOBA
0.1	-5	0.935	0.4	-1.3	0	0
0.1	-5	0.843	0.4	-1.4	0.362	0.371
1.6	4	0.867	1.2	1.2	0.372	0.368
2.2	3	0.893	2.0	3.5	0.381	0.350
2.2	3	0.852	2.0	2.5	0.365	0.338
1.7	5	0.759	1.4	3.5	0.326	0.318
2.1	4	0.779	1.7	5.1	0.333	0.315
2.7	6	0.791	2.2	5.6	0.338	0.315
2.6	6	0.769	2.2	7.0	0.330	0.310

As shown above, Hays got off to a spectacular start offensively in the first 18 games (.935 OPS), but had terrible struggles defensively, racking up -5 Rdrs and -1.2 UZR in that very short span, highlighted by a very poor opening series in Fenway where he misjudged several balls, and then a later play agaisnt the Yankees where he didn't communicate with Henderson and let an easy catch drop in.  The third segment (games 37-54) was his strongest, worth 1.5 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR, and Hays ,was a whopping +9 Rdrs and +2.6 UZR in that stretch and posting a .909 OPS in that period as well.   By the end of the 4th segment, Hays was at 2.2 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR, a performance that earned him an all-star nod, and he eventually started the all-star game in CF due to injuries to other players.   From late June through mid-August, Hays slumped badly, seeing his OPS drop from .893 on June 20 to .754 by August 14, posting a .513 OPS over 39 games.  He righted the ship at that point, peaking at .795 on September 12 before settling in at his final .779 at season's end.   His defense was more consistent, as he played well all year after that very bad initial blip.

Top 5 Games:

April 1, 5 for 5 with two doubles and a homer in a 9-8 loss to Boston.

April 11, 4 for 5 with a double and a homer in a 12-8 win over Oakland.

Sept. 6, 4 for 5 with a double, a homer and 4 RBI in a 10-3 win over the Angels

Sept. 19, 2 for 5 with two homers and 4 RBI in a 9-5 win over the Astros

Aug. 3, 4 for 5 with a double and two RBI in a 6-1 win over Toronto

Top 5 hits, by WPA:

Sept. 19, 3-run homer in the 3rd inning breaks a tie and gives the O's a 5-2 lead (.241 WPA)

April 21, solo homer in the bottom of the 7th breaks a 0-0 tie (.240 WPA)

April 11, 7th inning single breaks a 7-7 tie, sends another runner to 3B (.225 WPA)

June 26, bases loaded single in the bottom of the 2nd converts a 1-0 deficit to a 2-1 lead and leaves runners on 1st and 3rd (.192 WPA)

April 11, solo homer in the bottom of the 6th ties the game at 7-7 (.192 WPA) (note this is the same game in which Hays later broke the 7-7 tie)

But let's not forget his duck fart single that started the 2-out 9th inning rally against Tampa on Sept. 17 in the most dramatic game of the year.   The WPA on that hit was only 0.51, but without it, that game is over.

Defensive highlights:

Best Hays catch of the year, in my estimation: August 9 versus Houston

Best Hays catch of the year, by catch probability: April 2 versus Boston

And, you can see three of Hays' assists here.

Prognosis for 2024:

At this point, it seems we pretty much know who Hays is.   The last three years his OPS+ has been 107, 105, 114, and his career average is 107.   He's a solid left fielder who can handle the deep wall at OPACY and has a very strong and accurate arm.  The last two years, Hays seemed on the verge of a breakout campaign, only to cool off in the summer months; in 2021, he had a slow start but got hot at the end.   But, he ended up around the same place each time.   It's hard to expect anything radically different in 2024.   Here are some projections for him:

Marcel: .263/.319/.436, 17 HR, 65 RBI

Steamer: .255/.311/.427, 18 HR, 66 RBI

ZiPS: .265/.319/.441, 18 HR, 68 RBI.   ZiPS' median projection for Hays is 110 OPS+, with the 80th percentile projection at 128 and the 20th percentile at 89.  

I really can't quibble with any of this.   I expect another solid year from Hays so long as he's healthy, very much akin to what he's done the last three years.  At age 28, there's still some possibility of a breakout career year, but I am not holding my breath.

* * *

Let me know if you'd like to see any other info in these posts, if they are worthwhile at all.   And of course, if you have thoughts on Hays' 2023 season or 2024 prognosis, let's hear them!

 

 

Edited January 22 by Frobby

[jabba72]

Well you got me to click on the link and read the entire review so you have one viewer. I dont know if i'll read every one, but appreciate the effort nonetheless. Like you wrote I expect more of the same from Hays. Anything over a .325 OBP would be a career season from him it looks like, whether he's capable of doing it or not is the question.

[interloper]

Love this idea and looking forward to more.

In typical Hays fashion he started off hot and faded a bit. But crucially he didn't crater, he just settled into that mid-.700s range and stayed healthy while playing good D. That's plenty good enough for me, though I wonder if we could see him platooned a bit more if Cowser can show he's an option in LF. 

[emmett16]

Much appreciated. 

[btdart20]

I wonder how often he'll bat leadoff?  Yet another thing dependent on Holliday's ETA...

The chase% in 2022 spiked up from 2021.  And reverted in 2023.  Which makes me wonder if the Wall change played games with his mind in the box?  

Does he get 550 PAs?  Or do LHH rookies cut into his playing time?

[Moose Milligan]

2024 prediction:  Scorching heaters, terrible cold streaks.

My other prediction is that he gets traded at the deadline.  

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I wonder how often he'll bat leadoff?   

I hope not ever.  The OBP isn't there.

[forphase1]

First, I really appreciate you taking the time to put it together.  Content like this is one of the reasons I stop by the OH so frequently.  Huge thanks for that.  I like the writeup, the format, etc.  Well done.

Second, as to Hays, I agree that we know what we've got at this stage.  He's a decent/good, but not great player, and is capable of carrying a team for a couple weeks when he get hot.  But also completely capable of looking like Mateo at the plate for an extended time too.  I like him, I like how he plays the game, and seems like a great guy.  But he's also someone I'm comfortable with moving if the opportunity arises, and to give some of his playing time to Cowser. 

[Guest]

As always another factor with him is health and stamina, and I think that both has to do with his fading once summer hits. At times I feel he’s played through things he shouldn’t have just to stay on the field, and I hope he doesn’t force it this year again. 
 

He’s also maybe the biggest victim of the wall, having to cover a lot more ground (not sure how much bWARcorrected after the fact,  but it really didn’t like his defense in 2022) and losing 4 or 5 homers per year.

[waroriole]

Appreciate the write up and think it’s a good idea. I don’t expect any more from Hays than what we’ve seen each of the last 3 years. As you said, we know who he is. I do think we could expect more from Cowser if he took over every day in LF. It would be wise to look to trade either Hays or Santander, since their time here is limited. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hope not ever.  The OBP isn't there.

Yeah, I made that comment with the same mindset.  I saw he had 25 GS and 116 PAs out of the leadoff spot in 2023 and was going to make the obvious comment about the R/RBI distribution shifting a bit more than anything else.  He had 107 PAs from cleanup, 134 from #5, and 116 from #6.  He strikes me as a guy who will eventually hit 6-8 if the bulk of the young guys pan out.

FWIW, he slashed .314/.371/.486 hitting leadoff.  Maybe he should hit there more often!    

[now]

For context, I wonder how Hays's 107 (or 110) OPS+ ranks among all regular leftfielders. (Or is OPS+ already adjusted for position?)

[foxfield]

Count me in @Frobbyand thanks for the effort. 
 

Hays has something new this year too. He has footsteps lurking behind him. It’s almost impossible to predict if that helps him or makes him play tight. 
 

Hays is a good player and like Mateo last year, he is likely penciled in to start on opening day. But his time will be earned by what he is doing in 2024, and there are guys itching to eat in to that time. 
 

It is a good problem, and I wish him the best. Hopefully 2024 is his best year ever. 

[Greg Pappas]

Thank you, Frobby.  I did not know what wOBA or xwOBA were, but began to look them up and thought this would be helpful to share for those like me that may not know what these two stats are:

Quote

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)

wOBA assigns proper value to every possible offensive event that happens while a batter is at the plate. Those proper valuations of singles, doubles, homers, walks, etc., distinguish wOBA from more traditional measures like AVG, OBP, and SLG. Also, for simplicity wOBA is scaled to look like OBP, which means that, say, .400 is elite and .290 is pretty poor. Babe Ruth is the all-time leader with a patently absurd wOBA of .513. You can read more about wOBA at FanGraphs. 

Weighted On-Base Average, Expected (xwOBA)

xwOBA grows out of wOBA (see immediately above) and is an estimation of what a hitter's wOBA should be based on things like exit velocity off the bat and launch angle. xwOBA attempts to strip away luck -- bad or good -- and defensive play from wOBA and identify a hitter's baseline skill. It's somewhat useful for getting an idea of how a hitter figures to perform in the near-term future. Basically, if a hitter's xwOBA is significantly lower than his wOBA, he's probably going to come back to earth at some point. There's some evidence that slower players tend to underperform relative to their xwOBA and faster players tend to overperform, but even so xwOBA has utility. On the other side of things, if a hitter's xwOBA is quite a bit higher than his wOBA, then better days are likely ahead. Here's more on xwOBA. 

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average wOBA varies on a year-by-year basis. It is set to the same scale as OBP, so league-average wOBA in a given year should be very close to the league-average OBP. To see the league-average wOBA for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

wOBA Rules of Thumb

Rating	wOBA
Excellent	.400
Great	.370
Above Average	.340
Average	.320
Below Average	.310
Poor	.300
Awful	.290

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Thank you, Frobby.  I did not know what wOBA or xwOBA were, but began to look them up and thought this would be helpful to share for those like me that may not know what these two stats are:

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average wOBA varies on a year-by-year basis. It is set to the same scale as OBP, so league-average wOBA in a given year should be very close to the league-average OBP. To see the league-average wOBA for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

wOBA Rules of Thumb

Rating	wOBA
Excellent	.400
Great	.370
Above Average	.340
Average	.320
Below Average	.310
Poor	.300
Awful	.290

Thanks, Greg.  And the reason I listed those was to illustrate that there might be certain segments where wOBA and xwOBA don’t line up, indicating some good or bad luck during that period.   In Hays’ case, for example, the period where his OPS dropped from .852 to .759 coincided with a stretch where the gap between wOBA and xwOBA shrunk from 27 points to 8.   So that suggests that Hays had been a bit lucky prior to that period, and was then quite unlucky in the period in question.