Which minor league players who won’t reach the majors in 2024 most interest you?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be absolutely floored if Basallo made it to the majors this year.   I’d put the odds well under 1%.   

You keep saying that but I don’t get why.

He is going to start in AA. How long do you think he stays there if he is crushing the ball? They aren’t going to keep him in AA if he has a 900ish OPS past June. And if he goes to AAA and does the same thing, he is in line to be in the majors at the same time Gunnar was.

Now, we have to have room for his bat and that is obviously a potential “good problem” to have but in terms of him being ready to hit at this level, he definitely could be in position to be someone to help us come late August/early Sept.

Edited March 25 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You keep saying that but I don’t get why.

He is going to start in AA. How long do you think he stays there if he is crushing the ball? They aren’t going to keep him in AA if he has a 900ish OPS past June. And if he goes to AAA and does the same thing, he is in line to be in the majors at the same time Gunnar was.

Now, we have to have room for his bat and that is obviously a potential “good problem” to have but in terms of him being ready to hit at this level, he definitely could be in position to be someone to help us come late August/early Sept.

I think your assumption that Basallo will post a .900+ OPS at Bowie is far from certain.  But tell me, in the Elias era, how many position players began a year at Bowie and made it to the majors by the end of the year?   I can think of one — Gunnar Henderson — and that’s because he was performing at a level that propelled him to national MiL player of the year and status as the no. 1 prospect in the minors.   I think Basallo has a lot of work to do on his defense and the O’s have repeatedly shown they won’t move guys to the majors until their defense is very well developed.  I think Basallo has a good chance to be promoted to Norfolk mid-year if he hits well, but I just do not see him getting to Baltimore this season.  Just look at Mayo last year.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think your assumption that Basallo will post a .900+ OPS at Bowie is far from certain.  But tell me, in the Elias era, how many position players began a year at Bowie and made it to the majors by the end of the year?   I can think of one — Gunnar Henderson — and that’s because he was performing at a level that propelled him to national MiL player of the year and status as the no. 1 prospect in the minors.   I think Basallo has a lot of work to do on his defense and the O’s have repeatedly shown they won’t move guys to the majors until their defense is very well developed.  I think Basallo has a good chance to be promoted to Norfolk mid-year if he hits well, but I just do not see him getting to Baltimore this season.  Just look at Mayo last year.

His defense isn’t why he’s going to be in the majors. They aren’t going to hold him back if he’s crushing the ball. He can work on his defense in AAA and if he’s brought up to the majors this season, it won’t be to be a back up C. It will be to be a DH.

As for the Gunnar comp, a lot of people think Basallo could be the #1 prospect at the end of the year. The Gunnar comp is exactly why I’m thinking this.

I would bet had we asked you this question heading into 2022, you would have said no chance Gunnar makes the majors that year either. I bet you didn’t think Holliday would be a realistic 2024 OD starter this time last year either.

I think you are falling into the trap of looking at his age and saying, well he’s not ready because of that.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Broadly, Basallo, the CF prospects and the pitching prospects, because everyone else is going to be thoroughly blocked in this organization unless they end up really exceptional prospects. To pick 2:

Jud Fabian I’ll be following really closely early in the season, because if he doesn’t have a dramatic reduction in his K rate repeating AA he’s going to have a real tough shot at being a MLB player. But if he does, I like his chances a lot at being a righty 4th OF / backup CF to complement all the lefty OF. 

Trace Bright because I was super impressed by his Statcast numbers in the Spring Breakout game. I think his ceiling is a lot higher than he’s given credit for in a lot of his prospect evals. He reached AA in his first season and has the full arsenal of a MLB SP, and not just back-end SP guy stuff. It’s all going to come down to the progression of his command. 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His defense isn’t why he’s going to be in the majors. They aren’t going to hold him back if he’s crushing the ball. He can work on his defense in AAA and if he’s brought up to the majors this season, it won’t be to be a back up C. It will be to be a DH.

As for the Gunnar comp, a lot of people think Basallo could be the #1 prospect at the end of the year. The Gunnar comp is exactly why I’m thinking this.

I would bet had we asked you this question heading into 2022, you would have said no chance Gunnar makes the majors that year either. I bet you didn’t think Holliday would be a realistic 2024 OD starter this time last year either.

I think you are falling into the trap of looking at his age and saying, well he’s not ready because of that.

Every single thing you’ve said applies to Mayo last year.  1.026 OPS at Bowie, .905 at Norfolk, led the entire minors in XBH.   Did the O’s call him up?  No.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Every single thing you’ve said applies to Mayo last year.  1.026 OPS at Bowie, .905 at Norfolk, led the entire minors in XBH.   Did the O’s call him up?  No.   

But they called up Gunnar right?

[Sports Guy]

Btw, the argument that “they don’t do it with this guy, so therefore they won’t with another guy” is a really poor argument. (Same as saying, they did it with this guy, so therefore they will do it again)

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, the argument that “they don’t do it with this guy, so therefore they won’t with another guy” is a really poor argument. (Same as saying, they did it with this guy, so therefore they will do it again)

Question my logic all you want.  At the end of the year, I will be proven correct on this.  Book it.  I just hope Basallo plays well enough to make it interesting.  

Edited March 25 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Question my logic all you want.  At the end of the year, I will be proven correct on this.  Book it.  I just hope Basallo plays well enough to make it interesting.  

I’m not saying he’s definitely being brought up but if he produces as I believe he will and the need for a bat is there, he will be up. 

Im not worried about the production. The need may not be there though. That obviously depends on a lot of factors.

Let me put it this way…by the end of August, Basallo will have shown there is nothing left for him to prove offensively in the minors and he will be in position for a call up. 

[LookinUp]

On 3/8/2024 at 2:33 PM, justD said:

Just watched this young man pitch over at the Twin Lakes facility. They had him up twice. He was just mowing guys down, mixing pitches, several swing-and-miss. Myself and a gentleman whose kids played ball with EBJ were really enjoying watching him.

I’m boarding a plane soon but may be able to post video soon-ish of what I could capture. 

@justD gave us a new person to be interested in through the Amateur forum. Thanks!

As for Basallo, I'm expecting that everyone will be mad that Silas Ardoin makes the opening day roster next year instead of him. He's the next Holliday/Mayo in terms of timetable, IMO.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not saying he’s definitely being brought up but if he produces as I believe he will and the need for a bat is there, he will be up. 

Im not worried about the production. The need may not be there though. That obviously depends on a lot of factors.

Let me put it this way…by the end of August, Basallo will have shown there is nothing left for him to prove offensively in the minors and he will be in position for a call up. 

Do you think Basallo will be on the OD roster in 2025?   I haven't ruled it out, but I think the odds are well under 50%.  We will need a new backup C by then, since McCann is on an expiring contract, which helps Basallo.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Do you think Basallo will be on the OD roster in 2025?   I haven't ruled it out, but I think the odds are well under 50%.  We will need a new backup C by then, since McCann is on an expiring contract, which helps Basallo.

I think he has a good chance..he also is the most likely star prospect we have that will sign a “cheap extension”.

[LookinUp]

17 hours ago, LookinUp said:

@justD gave us a new person to be interested in through the Amateur forum. Thanks!

As for Basallo, I'm expecting that everyone will be mad that Silas Ardoin makes the opening day roster next year instead of him. He's the next Holliday/Mayo in terms of timetable, IMO.

By the way, I meant to link to @justD post about Michael Forret...

 

 

[Tony-OH]

Obviously anyone in my top 30 that's not going to start in AAA. But outside of the top-30, the guys I'm most interested in following are:

1. Levi Wells (#31) - Didn't get a look at him after signing so interested to see how he looks.
2. Michael Forret, (#39) is a young pitcher who never pitched with an affiliate and has a good arm. I'm interested in seeing how he looks in pro ball.
3. Alex Pham, (#41) - Looked really good this spring and his statcast data gives me a better thought that his stuff could work at the major league level if he improves his command. 
4. Aron Estrada, (#45) - Was hurt early in his FCL season and never fully recovered. I'm looking forward to see how the bat plays at Delmarva.
5. Edgar Portes , (#47) - Supposedly had a great spring. Looking to see if that goes into the regular season.
6. Aneudis Mordan (#62) - Is his bat real? Will his arm rebound to becoming playable behind the plate? 
 

 

[emmett16]

1. Almeyda 

2. DeLeon

3. Bright 

4. Tavera

5. Horvath