Will Smith extension- Adley comp

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

Maybe it's me, but 10 years seems like a lot for a 29 year old catcher.

I would definitely consider offering a long term deal to Adley, but I would want it to be more of a 7 or 8 year deal.   That would take him into his 33 or 34 year old season. 

As I said in another thread, 10 years is long but you have to consider that the price is only $140 mm, so they can eat a couple of unproductive years at the end if they need to.  For example, Realmuto got $115 mm for 5 years, starting at age 30.   

This is a useful data point for an Adley extension.  I think I suggested 10/$200 mm a year ago, and elsewhere I saw some pundit proposed 8/$156 mm.   
 

[yark14]

Tack on a couple dozen more million and let's get this thing signed and notarized.

[Just Regular]

Its hard to get apples to apples on years or AAV because this seems like another Xander Bogaerts type structure where the years are artificially long to lower the year to year tax hit.

The Orioles relative to the Dodgers don't have to worry about configuring for competitive balance taxes.

[Moose Milligan]

46 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

@Sports Guy and @Moose Milligan I don’t want to kill the mood or disrupt others from enjoying participating in this what if/would you scenario/thread.

My response comes most likely due to the compounding effect of another Orioles “Charlie Brown” offseason. A guy can only take having the ball pulled out from under him by Lucy (The Orioles) so many times and be disappointed before becoming cynical about player retention/contract extension/organizational spending. 

I’m going to bow out here and let others enjoy this one.

I hope that today’s proceedings mark a new day in spending for the team. I don’t think we’re going to be the Mets or the Yankees or the Dodgers but I’m cautiously optimistic that DR will spend to keep franchise guys in Baltimore. 
 

I’ve said that just because we have new ownership doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re going open the purse strings; a lot of people seem to think that’s a given. 
 

I’m not that confident. But the previous owners set such a low bar regarding spending that it would be hard to be as bad. 
 

We are the organization of Ripken, Robinson and Palmer. It’s nice to think we could add Gunnar and Adley to that list one day and have guys spend their entire careers here. 

[Chavez Ravine]

56 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

@Sports Guy and @Moose Milligan I don’t want to kill the mood or disrupt others from enjoying participating in this what if/would you scenario/thread.

My response comes most likely due to the compounding effect of another Orioles “Charlie Brown” offseason. A guy can only take having the ball pulled out from under him by Lucy (The Orioles) so many times and be disappointed before becoming cynical about player retention/contract extension/organizational spending. 

I’m going to bow out here and let others enjoy this one.

Lucy just sold the team.

[ThisIsBirdland]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hope that today’s proceedings mark a new day in spending for the team. I don’t think we’re going to be the Mets or the Yankees or the Dodgers but I’m cautiously optimistic that DR will spend to keep franchise guys in Baltimore. 
 

I’ve said that just because we have new ownership doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re going open the purse strings; a lot of people seem to think that’s a given. 
 

I’m not that confident. But the previous owners set such a low bar regarding spending that it would be hard to be as bad. 
 

We are the organization of Ripken, Robinson and Palmer. It’s nice to think we could add Gunnar and Adley to that list one day and have guys spend their entire careers here. 

Rubenstein’s comments to multiple press outlets today all spoke of “supporting Elias” in the direction he would propose taking the franchise. I think his attitude and comments are enough for me to feel confident he’ll invest to a level most of us would be satisfied with (middle of the pack, +/- $160m/year) if Elias advocates for the moves.

Edited March 27 by ThisIsBirdland

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

Maybe it's me, but 10 years seems like a lot for a 29 year old catcher.

I would definitely consider offering a long term deal to Adley, but I would want it to be more of a 7 or 8 year deal.   That would take him into his 33 or 34 year old season. 

Instead of doing a 5/100 or a 7/120 they did a 10/140 to spread it out for tax purposes.  Being a catcher he might be washed up by 35 or declining significantly by 32-33.   14M per year is actually light but it’s a good deal because of the years.

[Moose Milligan]

Dodgers must like his bat to play somewhere else towards the end of the contract. 

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

Lucy just sold the team.

I sure hope so. But talk is cheap. I have to see it to believe when it comes to the O's spending significant money in actually trying to pursue a World Series championship.

[Just Regular]

I'll buy Adley Rutschman being usable at age 39 if Andrew Friedman thinks Will Smith might be.     If we were to model paying Adley through 39...

Will Smith is 1977 PA of 5.0 WAR/162.    He has about $10 other millions already earned during a couple Arb years before this new $140.

Adley Rutschman is 1157 PA of 5.9 WAR/162.     There's some extra value condensing a 6th win into one roster spot, so I'll say he should pull more like $200M than $180M through age 39.     

Let's say 14/200.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Rubenstein’s comments to multiple press outlets today all spoke of “supporting Elias” in the direction he would propose taking the franchise. I think his attitude and comments are enough for me to feel confident he’ll invest to a level most of us would be satisfied with (middle of the pack, +/- $160m/year) if Elias advocates for the moves.

Right.   We’ll see what Elias wants to do.  My guess is Elias would like to spend more, but still won’t want to overpay as compared to whatever value his models suggest.   So we’re still going to be outbid when other teams are willing to be stupid, and there may be players in our organization who’d rather try to get some team to pay stupid money rather than signing a reasonable extension here.   

[Jim'sKid26]

I'm pretty certain Adley would not be the first of our young players I would extend. It is unlikely that Elias operates like Alex Anthopoulos and signs all his young players to team friendly extensions that lock up the stellar talent his farm system is producing through their prime years. Unfortunate as that seems, unless Rubenstein is willing spend at a level not seen in Baltimore since the Albert Bell/Miguel Tejada days, I think you can hope for one or maybe two players extended. If that's the case, give me Gunnar and Jackson. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I'm pretty certain Adley would not be the first of our young players I would extend. It is unlikely that Elias operates like Alex Anthopoulos and signs all his young players to team friendly extensions that lock up the stellar talent his farm system is producing through their prime years. Unfortunate as that seems, unless Rubenstein is willing spend at a level not seen in Baltimore since the Albert Bell/Miguel Tejada days, I think you can hope for one or maybe two players extended. If that's the case, give me Gunnar and Jackson. 

In a vacuum, Adley wouldn’t be the guy I most want to lock up, but he might be the easiest one and might be the cornerstone that allows others to decide they want in, too.  So if he’s willing to play ball, I say go for it.  

I realize most catchers don’t age that well, but Adley is a guy whose value to the team isn’t measured solely by offensive stats.   He’s an important leader on the team, whose presence on the roster made an enormous difference the minute he stepped on the field.  The rebuilding era ended the instant he joined the club.  And everyone in the clubhouse knows it.   

So, fine with me if Adley’s the first guy we lock up.   It may make it easier to go after others.  And I’ll bet on the guy earning his deal.  

[Satyr3206]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In a vacuum, Adley wouldn’t be the guy I most want to lock up, but he might be the easiest one and might be the cornerstone that allows others to decide they want in, too.  So if he’s willing to play ball, I say go for it.  

I realize most catchers don’t age that well, but Adley is a guy whose value to the team isn’t measured solely by offensive stats.   He’s an important leader on the team, whose presence on the roster made an enormous difference the minute he stepped on the field.  The rebuilding era ended the instant he joined the club.  And everyone in the clubhouse knows it.   

So, fine with me if Adley’s the first guy we lock up.   It may make it easier to go after others.  And I’ll bet on the guy earning his deal.  

I agree with every point.

[Chavez Ravine]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In a vacuum, Adley wouldn’t be the guy I most want to lock up, but he might be the easiest one and might be the cornerstone that allows others to decide they want in, too.  So if he’s willing to play ball, I say go for it.  

I realize most catchers don’t age that well, but Adley is a guy whose value to the team isn’t measured solely by offensive stats.   He’s an important leader on the team, whose presence on the roster made an enormous difference the minute he stepped on the field.  The rebuilding era ended the instant he joined the club.  And everyone in the clubhouse knows it.   

So, fine with me if Adley’s the first guy we lock up.   It may make it easier to go after others.  And I’ll bet on the guy earning his deal.  

It’s the benefit everyone gets from putting on the tools of ignorance. Locking up an elite catcher is an easy move for both sides.