Will Smith extension- Adley comp

[Sports Guy]

He has one more year of arb.  Long deal that takes him to 39 years old.

 

 

[interloper]

Adley is the first one I'd try to extend. Compared to Gunnar he'll be cheaper, easier to sign in theory, he's one of the franchise faces, it's hard to find good catchers, etc. Just seems like it would be a logical first step. 

[Sports Guy]

Btw, in the title I said Adley comp.

By that I mean length of this contract and position.  There is no other comp between the 2 players.(although Smith is a good player)

[clapdiddy]

Maybe it's me, but 10 years seems like a lot for a 29 year old catcher.

I would definitely consider offering a long term deal to Adley, but I would want it to be more of a 7 or 8 year deal.   That would take him into his 33 or 34 year old season. 

[Sports Guy]

Just a reminder that Adley has 2024 as his final pre arb year and then 3 arb years after that. He will likely make somewhere around 45M the next 4 years, assuming health and performance.

His first free agency year, he will be 30 years old.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

Maybe it's me, but 10 years seems like a lot for a 29 year old catcher.

I would definitely consider offering a long term deal to Adley, but I would want it to be more of a 7 or 8 year deal.   That would take him into his 33 or 34 year old season. 

It’s way too many years but it’s also not a big AAV.  They probably figure at that price, he will be able to hit enough and catch part time later in his career and be close to being worth this deal.

[Sports Guy]

I’d offer Adley 7/130.

This doesn’t include 2024.

Buy out 4 FA years.

[Bemorewins]

No disrespect intended toward you @Sports Guy but what does this type of stuff even mean?

Until the Orioles show that they are serious about shelling out the dollars required to do serious contracts what good are comps?

This is like me looking at the comps for mansions in Calabasas. I guess it’s good for fantasy, not sure it has any use in reality.

[clapdiddy]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I’d offer Adley 7/130.

This doesn’t include 2024.

Buy out 4 FA years.

That would be great if he accepted it.   Would love to see him, Gunnar, Holliday, and Basallo (when he gets here) wrapped up to nice deals.    That is a great core to build a team around. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

No disrespect intended toward you @Sports Guy but what does this type of stuff even mean?

Until the Orioles show that they are serious about shelling out the dollars required to do serious contracts what good are comps?

This is like me looking at the comps for mansions in Calabasas. I guess it’s good for fantasy, not sure it has any use in reality.

You know you are on a message board that is designed for conversation right?  

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d offer Adley 7/130.

This doesn’t include 2024.

Buy out 4 FA years.

I was thinking something like 8/145. That takes him through age 34. I wonder if he’d just prefer to take it through age 36 at that point. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

That would be great if he accepted it.   Would love to see him, Gunnar, Holliday, and Basallo (when he gets here) wrapped up to nice deals.    That is a great core to build a team around. 

Numbers may need to be played around with.  That would be my initial offer.

He may want more years. Not sure I feel great about that unless the AAV goes down a lot. 
 

Posey got 9/167 at the same age.  Adley may need to beat that.  If it was, say, 10 years at 180, that’s an additional 3/50 On top of what I said.

I would rather go 8/160 and still give him a chance to make money/sign another deal, at age 35, which is very possible. 

 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I was thinking something like 8/145. That takes him through age 34. I wonder if he’d just prefer to take it through age 36 at that point. 

Yea that works too. I think 7-8 years is the sweet spot for the team but not sure it’s the sweet spot for Adley.

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

No disrespect intended toward you @Sports Guy but what does this type of stuff even mean?

Until the Orioles show that they are serious about shelling out the dollars required to do serious contracts what good are comps?

This is like me looking at the comps for mansions in Calabasas. I guess it’s good for fantasy, not sure it has any use in reality.

I agree in spirit but SG is right. We’re here to talk about an assortment of things, pontificating about deals is one of them. 

[Bemorewins]

@Sports Guy and @Moose Milligan I don’t want to kill the mood or disrupt others from enjoying participating in this what if/would you scenario/thread.

My response comes most likely due to the compounding effect of another Orioles “Charlie Brown” offseason. A guy can only take having the ball pulled out from under him by Lucy (The Orioles) so many times and be disappointed before becoming cynical about player retention/contract extension/organizational spending. 

I’m going to bow out here and let others enjoy this one.