Gunnar Henderson 2024

[maybenxtyr]

21 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Well said he only bats lead off once. The lead off Home Runs are partially a product of him batting with nobody on base( pitchers more inclined to challenge) If they adjust the OBP will go up and so will the steals. As far as a fifth AB who else would you want up, plus whoever is PH for our # 8 or 9 has Gunner in front of them.  

I was listening to the game on XM last night and wondering if Gray was trying something new against Gunnar with the pitch around as a lead off hitter. I'm not saying that the league won't challenge him as they obviously pitched to him the rest of the game, but I think he's going to get a bunch of walks if he's patient enough. He's going to get to the point of seeing maybe 1 decent pitch an AB. All just speculation on my part though.

[panick]

29 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mullins would be perfect for this if he would hit to his career average. Once Holliday comes up, start him and Mullins 8-9. Once Holliday hits, he can be the leadoff hitter of the future with Adley and Gunnar 2-3. 

A 9-1-2 of Mullins-Holliday-Gunnar would be pretty nice. 

I agree, Gunnar has to be 1 or 2. Every spot you move him down reduces his predicted AB's by 11% and we don't want that. Better to have him hit more times even if it costs a few base runners than more baserunners/fewer ABs.

Hyde would not do this. Haven't you noticed that Hyde alternates left-handed and right-handed hitters in the batting order?

And looking at his stats, I'm not sure Mullins will ever hit his career average again.

[btdart20]

52 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 

Gunnar has already had 19 more PA than the #2 most (Adley), 22 more PA than the #3 most (Santander), 27 more PA than #4 (Westburg), and 29 more PA than #5 (Mountcastle).  That is just over 1/4 of the season.   Batting him 4th means that he will very often get only 4 PA per game instead of 5, and that 5th PA will take place at a critical time in the 9th inning.  He hits a HR every 12.6 PAs (this year & every 19.9 PA career) so batting him second is coughing up 1-2 HR so far this season, 3rd or 4th is -3HR....and that's in just a little over 1/4 of the season.  So, by moving him to 3rd or 4th you're taking away ~10HR over the course of a full season.    Instead of putting him lower in the line-up, I'd like to see a higher OBP guy in front of him in the 9 spot.  Gunnar has the tools to be a tremendous lead-off hitter.  

This!  Part of the evolution of the game.

[Frobby]

Gunnar seems almost like some AI sponge who’s always upgrading based on the latest feedback loop he’s received.  

ZiPS had Gunnar projected for an .816 OPS, 4.8 fWAR before the season started.   It’s now projecting him at .844 the rest of the way, and 4.8 fWAR over the final 117 games (which would put him at 7.7 for the full season).   
 

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, panick said:

Hyde would not do this. Haven't you noticed that Hyde alternates left-handed and right-handed hitters in the batting order?

And looking at his stats, I'm not sure Mullins will ever hit his career average again.

I thought of that. Might need to be Holliday-Adley-Gunnar. Still, when you draft all LHB's you might have to hit them back to back occasionally. Shouldn't be a problem against RHP and it's not like you need to PH for Gunnar vs LHP. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

 

Gunnar has already had 19 more PA than the #2 most (Adley), 22 more PA than the #3 most (Santander), 27 more PA than #4 (Westburg), and 29 more PA than #5 (Mountcastle).  That is just over 1/4 of the season.   Batting him 4th means that he will very often get only 4 PA per game instead of 5, and that 5th PA will take place at a critical time in the 9th inning.  He hits a HR every 12.6 PAs (this year & every 19.9 PA career) so batting him second is coughing up 1-2 HR so far this season, 3rd or 4th is -3HR....and that's in just a little over 1/4 of the season.  So, by moving him to 3rd or 4th you're taking away ~10HR over the course of a full season.    Instead of putting him lower in the line-up, I'd like to see a higher OBP guy in front of him in the 9 spot.  Gunnar has the tools to be a tremendous lead-off hitter.  

There are trade-offs.  Gunnar has batted with 91 runners on base in 202 PA.   The average hitter in 202 PA would see 121 runners on base.   So even if Gunnar would have 15-20 fewer PA right now if he was batting 4th, he’d probably have had 20ish more runners on base. Santander, for example, has had 115 runners on base in 180 PA.   At the same time, Gunnar would have been on base fewer times and scored fewer runs, etc.   

[emmett16]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

There are trade-offs.  Gunnar has batted with 91 runners on base in 202 PA.   The average hitter in 202 PA would see 121 runners on base.   So even if Gunnar would have 15-20 fewer PA right now if he was batting 4th, he’d probably have had 20ish more runners on base. Santander, for example, has had 115 runners on base in 180 PA.   At the same time, Gunnar would have been on base fewer times and scored fewer runs, etc.   

Good points.  

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

 

Gunnar has already had 19 more PA than the #2 most (Adley), 22 more PA than the #3 most (Santander), 27 more PA than #4 (Westburg), and 29 more PA than #5 (Mountcastle).  That is just over 1/4 of the season.   Batting him 4th means that he will very often get only 4 PA per game instead of 5, and that 5th PA will take place at a critical time in the 9th inning.  He hits a HR every 12.6 PAs (this year & every 19.9 PA career) so batting him second is coughing up 1-2 HR so far this season, 3rd or 4th is -3HR....and that's in just a little over 1/4 of the season.  So, by moving him to 3rd or 4th you're taking away ~10HR over the course of a full season.    Instead of putting him lower in the line-up, I'd like to see a higher OBP guy in front of him in the 9 spot.  Gunnar has the tools to be a tremendous lead-off hitter.  

I don't quite agree with your math, and here is why: Gunnar is averaging 4.49 plate appearances per game when he starts. Let's compare that to somebody who regularly bats 3rd or 4th in the lineup -- Ryan Mountcastle is averaging 4.35 plate appearances when he starts. The difference between the two, over the course of an entire season, would be 23 plate appearances. But Mountcastle has come up to bat 81 times so far with men on base, while Gunnar has come up only 68 times in those situations. We're 28% into the season, do the math and Mountcastle would come up 46 more times with men on base than Henderson over the course of the season, even though he'd have 23 fewer plate appearances.

In which scenario would Gunnar likely do more damage?

A) 23 more PA at leadoff (2/3 of which will probably be with the bases empty)

or B) 23 fewer PA all told batting 3rd or 4th, but 46 more PA with men on base? 

I think he'd do more damage with B, but maybe I'm missing something. 

 

PS -- it took me a while to do the calculations and put all that down on paper. I see now that Frobby made pretty much the same argument as I did in about a tenth the time. Coke to Frobby. 

Edited May 21 by ShoelesJoe

[Say O!]

Here’s fangraphs Ben Clemens take on the Gunnar batting first (excerpted from yesterday’s chat)

Quote

2:33

C-Low: It feels to me like Henderson should bat second and Rutschman first. Not a huge obp and immense power but keeps hitting solo home runs. Am I on to something or would you keep as is?

2:34

Ben Clemens: I think the difference between the two options is small enough that I’d do whatever makes the players happiest

 

[Safelykept]

56 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Correct on the last part.  I almost mentioned that.  Apart from having the bench bats replace lower lineup guys, the lead-off hitter also has the best chance of seeing the SP a third time through the line up.  

There is a reason why hes there, its called Elias and Company. If and when the time comes to change they will.

[Safelykept]

46 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I was listening to the game on XM last night and wondering if Gray was trying something new against Gunnar with the pitch around as a lead off hitter. I'm not saying that the league won't challenge him as they obviously pitched to him the rest of the game, but I think he's going to get a bunch of walks if he's patient enough. He's going to get to the point of seeing maybe 1 decent pitch an AB. All just speculation on my part though.

And you're probably going to be right. In addition to one of best power bats in the game he can be a great lead off hitter, has great speed, who other than Mateo would you want trying to steal a base, maybe Cedric. This not you're average Orioles team i grew up with that played base to base, Ive followed the Os since 71 and this is the fastest Oriole team Ive seen, Although the 89 team gets a shout.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't quite agree with your math, and here is why: Gunnar is averaging 4.49 plate appearances per game when he starts. Let's compare that to somebody who regularly bats 3rd or 4th in the lineup -- Ryan Mountcastle is averaging 4.35 plate appearances when he starts. The difference between the two, over the course of an entire season, would be 23 plate appearances. But Mountcastle has come up to bat 81 times so far with men on base, while Gunnar has come up only 68 times in those situations. We're 28% into the season, do the math and Mountcastle would come up 46 more times with men on base than Henderson over the course of the season, even though he'd have 23 fewer plate appearances.

In which scenario would Gunnar likely do more damage?

A) 23 more PA at leadoff (2/3 of which will probably be with the bases empty)

or B) 23 fewer PA all told batting 3rd or 4th, but 46 more PA with men on base? 

I think he'd do more damage with B, but maybe I'm missing something. 

 

PS -- it took me a while to do the calculations and put all that down on paper. I see now that Frobby made pretty much the same argument as I did in about a tenth the time. Coke to Frobby. 

Pretty simply, on average each spot in the lineup gets 18 fewer PA than the previous spot over a season.  So, the typical #4 will get 54 PA fewer than #1.   We’re about 28% of the way through the season so the no. 4 spot should be about 15 PA behind the 1st spot by now.  In reality, right now the 1 spot for the O’s has 204 PA, while the 4 spot has 196, so the difference has been less than you’d typically expect.  The average MLB differential between 1 and 4 right now is exactly 15 PA.

The reason the annual average PA drop per spot is 18 is pretty intuitive.  There are 162 games a year, and 9 spots in the batting order, so the game will end at each spot in the order about 18 times each.  Obviously it won’t end up exactly that way, but in the long run, it’s close.  So 18 times the game ends on the leadoff batter and he gets one more PA than everyone else.  Then another 18 games the game ends on the no. 2 batter, so nos. 1 and 2 get one more PA than everyone else.   Etc.

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Gunnar seems almost like some AI sponge who’s always upgrading based on the latest feedback loop he’s received.  

ZiPS had Gunnar projected for an .816 OPS, 4.8 fWAR before the season started.   It’s now projecting him at .844 the rest of the way, and 4.8 fWAR over the final 117 games (which would put him at 7.7 for the full season).   
 

Wait!  ZIPS wants a do over?   

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Now back to Gunnar, Gunnar is in the midst of most likely the greatest individual season in Orioles history. And we have 21/22 pages on him and what 80 on Holliday? 

Gunnar’s giving us something to dream on and certainly on pace for one of the best seasons in O’s history, but “greatest” is such a high bar

• 91 Ripken = 10.6 fWAR // 11.0 bWAR (MVP)
• 84 Ripken = 9.8 fWAR // 10.0 bWAR
• 83 Ripken = 8.5 fWAR // 8.2 bWAR (MVP)
• 66 Frank = 8.2 fWAR // 7.7 bWAR (MVP, triple crown)
• 64 Brooks = 8.1 fWAR // 8.1 bWAR (MVP)

Link to O’s single season leaders for position players on bb-reference

Now if narrowing to best season since Ripken’s historic 1991 campaign, the competition there is arguably (ignoring pitchers, ie Mussina)

• 15 Machado = 6.6 fWAR // 7.5 bWAR
• 96 Brady = 6.9 fWAR // 6.9 bWAR
• 08 Markakis = 6.1 fWAR // 7.4 bWAR
• 13 Crush = 7.0 fWAR // 7.1 bWAR

[btdart20]

29 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't quite agree with your math, and here is why: Gunnar is averaging 4.49 plate appearances per game when he starts. Let's compare that to somebody who regularly bats 3rd or 4th in the lineup -- Ryan Mountcastle is averaging 4.35 plate appearances when he starts. The difference between the two, over the course of an entire season, would be 23 plate appearances. But Mountcastle has come up to bat 81 times so far with men on base, while Gunnar has come up only 68 times in those situations. We're 28% into the season, do the math and Mountcastle would come up 46 more times with men on base than Henderson over the course of the season, even though he'd have 23 fewer plate appearances.

In which scenario would Gunnar likely do more damage?

A) 23 more PA at leadoff (2/3 of which will probably be with the bases empty)

or B) 23 fewer PA all told batting 3rd or 4th, but 46 more PA with men on base? 

I think he'd do more damage with B, but maybe I'm missing something. 

 

PS -- it took me a while to do the calculations and put all that down on paper. I see now that Frobby made pretty much the same argument as I did in about a tenth the time. Coke to Frobby. 

Better and deeper hitting quality is a bigger factor than batting order.  But I still want my dynamic hitters getting more PAs.