Prospect Trade Value

[scarey1999]

15 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

You have to stay in the “sweet spot” 

https://www.scienceforsport.com/acutechronic-workload-ratio/
 

I’d be a little nervous trading with Marlins, seems their pitchers do down with injuries fairly regularly.  Whatever they are doing isn’t working. 

Same could be said of Orioles pitchers too. Means, Bautista, Bradish (whatever his outcome is…I’m not holding my breath) plus we had several minor leaguers that have gone under the knife this spring.

I think the science is far from being settled.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

Same could be said of Orioles pitchers too. Means, Bautista, Bradish (whatever his outcome is…I’m not holding my breath) plus we had several minor leaguers that have gone under the knife this spring.

I think the science is far from being settled.  

Exactly.

Might not ever be an exact science, might be too much variance in the human body.

[emmett16]

38 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

Same could be said of Orioles pitchers too. Means, Bautista, Bradish (whatever his outcome is…I’m not holding my breath) plus we had several minor leaguers that have gone under the knife this spring.

I think the science is far from being settled.  

I agree the science isn’t exact. 
 

With that said, the O’s have done pretty well in the pitching health category.  

[emmett16]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Exactly.

Might not ever be an exact science, might be too much variance in the human body.

For sure.  Bautista is putting a lot more valgus stress on the bow than, say, Cole Irvin.  
 

But I think it’s pretty well documented that both over work & under work will lead to issues. 
 

Could Bautista have avoided problems if he wasn’t risen so hard last year? 

Edited April 4 by emmett16

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

Sure, I get that point, but I am not convinced there is no roster spot here for Povich or McDermott. Sure, it's hard to see the path for Norby given Henderson, Holliday, Mayo, and Westburg on the infield. And it's hard to find the spot for Stowers with Mullins, Santander and Hays right now and Cowser and Kjerstad both ahead of him. 

I also don't know that I agree with the idea of trading away 4 guys just because there is no spot for 1 when you can get away with dealing less value (even if we don't have the spot). Value is value and if you don't have a spot for it, we can always trade that in a different deal for additional pieces, either lower level minor leaguers or relief pitching.

Guys like Norby and Stowers, unfortunately, for them are nothing more than collateral for the team at the moment. Just because I have the money to burn to buy something I want, doesn't mean I should burn it if I can get it (or something comparable) for less. 

All that said, it'll be interesting to see what moves we make midseason. We certainly have the pieces for it and it is getting to the point now that holding on to them is starting to hurt their value given their ages (particularly in the case of Stowers).

Don’t make the mistake of over valuing non elite prospects based on 5 games at Norfolk and ST.   Stowers had minimal value.  Norby, McDermott, and Povich had some value but not a lot individually.   

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I agree the science isn’t exact. 
 

With that said, the O’s have done pretty well in the pitching health category.  

Maybe?

It's so hard to tell.

Wasn't there a stretch of time when the Rays just totally dodged arm injuries for like 2-3 seasons?

Folks started to think they'd found the secret, then Boom!

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe?

It's so hard to tell.

Wasn't there a stretch of time when the Rays just totally dodged arm injuries for like 2-3 seasons?

Folks started to think they'd found the secret, then Boom!

Good point.  

[Yossarian]

There is a fine line to walk here.  The O's have a stockpile of talent that is ready for promotion, but nowhere to put them.  However,  if they bundle a bunch of these guys and ship them off in a trade,  does that leave you caught with your pants down if one or two of the big leaguers goes down with injury?  Who fills that gap on the roster?

[Safelykept]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Norby, Stowers, McDermott, Povich for Luzardo is a no brainer from the Orioles side.  Slim chance either Povich or McDermott become Luzardo and Norby and Stowers are not even within our top 5 guys.

Not sure who the Marlins would want.

Agree but who Knows? You would have to think the Marlins are looking to punt, and the Orioles are Def looking for a top shelf starter, so heres hoping something gets done

[ThisIsBirdland]

[Can_of_corn]

I don't see why they would want to wait until the deadline.  More time with a team should equal more return.

[baltfan]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see why they would want to wait until the deadline.  More time with a team should equal more return.

There is very little history of early season trades like you are proposing, though there is sense to your proposal. 

[StottyByNature]

4 hours ago, emmett16 said:

For sure.  Bautista is putting a lot more valgus stress on the bow than, say, Cole Irvin.  
 

But I think it’s pretty well documented that both over work & under work will lead to issues. 
 

Could Bautista have avoided problems if he wasn’t risen so hard last year? 

My recollection was that he hurt his arm on a pitch when his landing foot slipped.  Seemed like more of a freak injury than wear and tear.  But who knows.

[ShoelesJoe]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

There is very little history of early season trades like you are proposing, though there is sense to your proposal. 

I was wondering the same thing, re early season blockbuster trades. But if you can do it a week before spring training starts or even during spring training, why not a week after spring training? Surely the Marlins have more of an idea right now as to how their 2024 will go than they did two months ago. A sell off now would probably benefit them more in he long run than a sell off in July. 

[Billy F-Face3]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

No evidence it helps.

Based on the number of times this has happened to pitchers who were limited, I'm beginning to believe it might actually contribute to it happening.