Would you trade Kjerstad for an elite controlled reliever?

[RZNJ]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Absolutely. We have several guys who can do that but yes, Stowers for a guy like Kopech could make a lot of sense. 

Haha.  I wish.  Stowers is seen as a AAAA outfielder by other teams.  Kopech could fetch real prospects at the deadline. 

[sportsfan8703]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha.  I wish.  Stowers is seen as a AAAA outfielder by other teams.  Kopech could fetch real prospects at the deadline. 

If that’s the case then we will keep Stowers and Norby as role players for next year’s team and deal prospects further from the MLB team. Prospects from the tier of Fabian, Wagner, and Horvath. 

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha.  I wish.  Stowers is seen as a AAAA outfielder by other teams.  Kopech could fetch real prospects at the deadline. 

Let's say that what you assert is true. He can be a throw-in for a trade deal. OR we can simply turn to the plethora of other position player prospects to deal from. When you have an over-abundance like we have, there are so many to choose from who are good, but just don't/won't have a place here but other teams will still value.

[deward]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

So it sounds like you're saying that you think it's realistic for all of these prospects we have to work out.  

As recently as early last year, I would have said that it wasn't likely, just based on historical outcomes. Based on right now though, doesn't it seem possible that all of this current premium group at AAA is going to succeed? I fully expect Holliday, Kjerstad, and Mayo to become long-term regulars. Even Norby seems like a good bet to have a career somewhere. You can't account for injuries, but I don't see any performance-related reasons not to expect that outcome at this point.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, deward said:

As recently as early last year, I would have said that it wasn't likely, just based on historical outcomes. Based on right now though, doesn't it seem possible that all of this current premium group at AAA is going to succeed? I fully expect Holliday, Kjerstad, and Mayo to become long-term regulars. Even Norby seems like a good bet to have a career somewhere. You can't account for injuries, but I don't see any performance-related reasons not to expect that outcome at this point.

Hard to look these things up, but I do believe that'd be pretty unprecedented.  

[deward]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hard to look these things up, but I do believe that'd be pretty unprecedented.  

The old Bill James rule of thumb used to be that if a hitter performed well at AA at the appropriate age, then his odds of having a big league career were pretty high (not an all-star necessarily, but a regular). I don't know if that still holds, but all of these guys have passed that test at both AA and AAA. Having none of these guys wash out in the lower minors is definitely not the outcome I would have originally predicted, but this seems to be where we're at.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, deward said:

The old Bill James rule of thumb used to be that if a hitter performed well at AA at the appropriate age, then his odds of having a big league career were pretty high (not an all-star necessarily, but a regular). I don't know if that still holds, but all of these guys have passed that test at both AA and AAA. Having none of these guys wash out in the lower minors is definitely not the outcome I would have originally predicted, but this seems to be where we're at.

Fair enough.  Certainly rooting for the outcome, that's for sure!

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Let's say that what you assert is true. He can be a throw-in for a trade deal. OR we can simply turn to the plethora of other position player prospects to deal from. When you have an over-abundance like we have, there are so many to choose from who are good, but just don't/won't have a place here but other teams will still value.

Ok.  Elias is going to wait to see what happens with Bradish, Means, and Wells.   That’s going to affect the starting rotation and bullpen.  We’re going to see if Suarez or Baumann can emerge as high leverage guys.   Chances are that a high leverage guy will still be welcomed/needed.   If that is the case, no way someone like Stowers brings back Kopech, as long as Kopech continues pitching like he is.  As you said, Elias, if he does go after him, it will be with prospects not considered core guys.   If he wouldn’t give up Kjerstad in a Cease deal, as was reported, he’s not giving him up for Kopech.    Stowers could be a 2nd or 3rd piece but more of a throw in.

[deward]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fair enough.  Certainly rooting for the outcome, that's for sure!

Same, same. It feels borderline miraculous that it's worked out this well so far. And now look at what Dylan Beavers is doing in Bowie....

[Sports Guy]

I think it’s very safe to say that at least one of Kjerstad, Cowser, Beavers and Stowers have to be dealt…maybe 2 of them.

I also think it’s safe to say pitching is the target in any deal for these guys.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s very safe to say that at least one of Kjerstad, Cowser, Beavers and Stowers have to be dealt…maybe 2 of them.

I also think it’s safe to say pitching is the target in any deal for these guys.

One of these is not like the others.

[Just Regular]

With Houston opening very bad, Bryan Abreu might be an interesting name for this kind of speculation.

He has this year and two more Arb years, which probably won't cost too much as he has few career Saves.    Abreu and the expensive Ryan Pressly have been the 1-2 RP punch the last couple falls.

I don't think I'd go Kjerstad, but Abreu is I think one of the better elite controlled relievers in the game right now.

[24fps]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

With Houston opening very bad, Bryan Abreu might be an interesting name for this kind of speculation.

He has this year and two more Arb years, which probably won't cost too much as he has few career Saves.    Abreu and the expensive Ryan Pressly have been the 1-2 RP punch the last couple falls.

I don't think I'd go Kjerstad, but Abreu is I think one of the better elite controlled relievers in the game right now.

The Astros are $24 million over the competitive balance tax threshold, so it might the Pressley that they would want to unload if they decide to fold on 2024.  I agree that Abreu is an interesting reliever, but as you say, not worth Kjerstad.

[Tony-OH]

On 4/20/2024 at 10:35 PM, EddeeEddee said:

Not Kjerstad but perhaps someone else like Stowers or Norby or further on down the prospect list.  The O's have to trade some of these guys for pitching pretty soon -- unless they start trading veterans.  

I would agree with this. Not much trading happens this time of year and the Orioles are 14-7, so no reason to make a trade, but I do think those kinds of guys have to be on the table at the trading deadline. the problem is team are going to try and hold out for a Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo type.

[RZNJ]

Mason Miller just threw 3 sliders for strikes to Volpe and then struck him out on a 102.5 mph fastball.