Off-season Qualifying Offer Question

[HandsomeQuack]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

This is incredibly stupid. If a 30 year old is 1 WAR better than a 25 year old with multiple years of team control, it doesn’t justify having the 30 year old on a $20 million contract while the 25 year old rots.

Congrats, you have concocted a scenario where letting him walk makes sense. It's also possible that Kjerstad is not an MLB-level player. Maybe they QO Santander and he accepts, then they flip Kjerstad for a pitcher and groom Mayo to be the eventual RF starter. A lot is still possible in April.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It isn't just the money, they've got multiple guys that have done well in the minors vying for that roster spot.  You going to keep them all in AAA for another season?

If he has a year like the last two, I’d probably make the QO because it’s doubtful he’d accept. If he accepts, you’ll figure it out.  

[Three Run Homer]

30 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Trade Hays for peanuts and let O'Hearn walk. 

I like O'Hearn more than Santander as a hitter going forward.  

[Philip]

The question isn’t whether Santander is worth 20 million( he’s not.)

And there’s no doubt he would take a QO from the Orioles.

The question is whether we have not one, but several guys who can do as well, or almost as well, for league minimum.

I like Tony a lot, he’s one of the best rule five guys of the last 10 years.

But I hope he’s for sale and I hope somebody trades for him quickly.

Edited April 25 by Philip

[OsFanInOhio]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

The question isn’t whether Santander is worth 20 million, there is absolutely no doubt he would take a Q0 from the Orioles.

The question is whether we have not Juan, but several guys who can do as well, or almost as well for league minimum.

I like Tony a lot, he’s one of the best rule five guys of the last 10 years.

But I hope he’s for sale and I hope somebody trades for him quickly.

What makes you so confident he would accept? If he is coming off 3 years of what he’s done the last 2? I’ve mentioned in other posts that he’s younger and a better defender than both soler and Hernandez, who are similar offensive profiles. If he performs as well as last year, or better, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have a market value higher than 1 yr 20mm. Tho the QO would hurt his market value. 

[emmett16]

This thread is a going to be super funny shortly after Santander goes on a heater.  

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

This thread is a going to be super funny shortly after Santander goes on a heater.  

Would that really affect whether or not he’s worth $20 million next season?

[emmett16]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

Would that really affect whether or not he’s worth $20 million next season?

 

I’d like the pick so I’m hoping he goes off, we offer, and he rejects.  He was worth 24 MM last year and 18.5MM in 2022.  So, technically, he should be worth right about 20 MM next year(depending on performance). I’d also wager he’d be more productive than Norby, Stowers, & Kjerstad.  

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

What makes you so confident he would accept? If he is coming off 3 years of what he’s done the last 2? I’ve mentioned in other posts that he’s younger and a better defender than both soler and Hernandez, who are similar offensive profiles. If he performs as well as last year, or better, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have a market value higher than 1 yr 20mm. Tho the QO would hurt his market value. 

If the QO hurts his market, that could increase the.likelihood of him accepting.  Then he can't be QO'd the next year.  

As Emmett said, he's pretty close currently.  So 2024 will influence the teams and his decision.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, OsFanInOhio said:

What makes you so confident he would accept? If he is coming off 3 years of what he’s done the last 2? I’ve mentioned in other posts that he’s younger and a better defender than both soler and Hernandez, who are similar offensive profiles. If he performs as well as last year, or better, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have a market value higher than 1 yr 20mm. Tho the QO would hurt his market value. 

He will be 30 in October. Over the last several years, he has gotten slower, his range has diminished, his arm is neither strong nor accurate( if I read the savant page correctly) his career years were at least a couple years ago. Last year was good, but there’s a lot more blue on that 2023 page.
Also, Baltimore is the new Hot Place, and he could get a second WS Ring( because we get one this year!)here if he accepted a QO, and he loves it here. Of course he’d accept.

But the main thing is that we have younger and cheaper guys at the beginning of their age curve, and we can use that 20 mill to lock up Gunnar and the gang.

Edited April 25 by Philip

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

This thread is a going to be super funny shortly after Santander goes on a heater.  

Wait for it. It's going to happen.

Santander is a better overall player than all the aforementioned prospects in this thread. The goal is to be better that the other 29 MLB teams.

[OsFanInOhio]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Wait for it. It's going to happen.

Santander is a better overall player than all the aforementioned prospects in this thread. The goal is to be better that the other 29 MLB teams.

And now we hopefully don’t have to worry about picking between spending on him and bringing in other free agents / extending other guys. So we should be trying to sign or extend anyone who makes us better (or taking the pick at least if he does leave). 
 

This thread hadn’t been meant to advocate for him leaving. Just curiosity if he does leave. 

[24fps]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Wait for it. It's going to happen.

Santander is a better overall player than all the aforementioned prospects in this thread. The goal is to be better that the other 29 MLB teams.

Wait, since when is money no object?

It remains to be seen what the budget constraints are going to be with the new ownership, but if Santander is projected to put up 3.0 WAR for $20 million and his replacement (Kjerstad/Cowser/Stowers...) can put up 2.5 WAR for less than a million then that will be factored in.  The goal will never be about being better than the other 29 teams in a payroll vacuum.

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I like O'Hearn more than Santander as a hitter going forward.  

But O'Hearn's numbers are inflated because he never bats against lefties, plus he's trash in the outfield. 

If Santander's hitting does not improve this season of course you don't give him a QO, but that's unlikely.  He'll probably pick it up as the weather heats up.  Plus Tony plays at least a decent RF and can play first base too.  

Like others have said, should the O's offer Santander a QO?  Maybe -- it depends on how he performs and how Kjerstad and Stowers perform.  

[Billy F-Face3]

The problem with a Cowser/Kjerstad/Stowers/Bradfield outfield roster is there are no right handers to handle LHP.

I don't think and completely left handed outfield is the destination for an organization the values versatility.