The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Moose Milligan]

11 hours ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Yep. I like actual rumors that are based on actual facts or things people heard. But we never actually hear that type of stuff anymore. I’m ready for July 31st. 

Me too. This is the one month of the year that’s dragging. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think Anderson might be Elias’ guy. LH. Having a good year. Seems like he’d come pretty cheap. I’d prefer Fedde. I don’t think we’d have to give Cowser or Kjerstad. 

I hope not.

I can’t recall a player with such a big difference in WAR between BR and FG.  rWAR has him at like 4.3 and fWAR is 1.5.

I think fWAR is far more accurate, especially in this case. While the ERA is really good and he is averaging over 6 IP per start, there is really isn’t a lot to love in his numbers. He doesn’t miss enough bats, he doesn’t get Ks, his walk rate is high, he throws strikes at a below league average level and his statcast page is mediocre.  His FIP is in the mid 4s, which certainly signals he is pitching over his head right now.

The best thing about him so far this year is that he doesn’t give up a lot of hits but he has a 229 BaBiP.  Now, the one thing he has been good at is avoiding hard contact, as the average exit velo and the hard hit% vs high are very good.  

That is something he has consistently excelled at as well, so this isn’t a one year thing. He has done a good job at whiff rate and chase% over the years and while it’s not as good this year, it’s still ok.

 I could see the Os going after him too but I don’t feel confident at all about him starting a playoff game.  If he was throwing strikes at a level he did a few years ago, I would feel better about it.

[sportsfan8703]

People are going to hate hearing this, but best case scenario for us is that the Giants fall out and put Snell on the market. He’s the best fit as a SP, and the Giants are the best team we lineup with because they need offense. 

Criticize away, but they price might be EBJ, Stowers, and Norby for Snell. 

I make that trade, when you choose not to address needs in the offseason, then you gotta slightly “overpay” in prospects at the deadline. 

Edited July 23 by sportsfan8703

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, foxfield said:

You make a fair point, but @Tony-OH said just yesterday regarding Stowers that if he was eligible he would likely slot as high as #4 on the Orioles prospect list. 
 

 

But the age is the issue. It would be like saying what number would Mountcastle or some other Major Leaguer. It is unfair to compare players in their athletic prime to a 20  year old like Holliday or a 19 year old like Basallo. It’s not an apples to apples comparison.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People are going to hate hearing this, but best case scenario for us is that the Giants fall out and put Snell on the market. He’s the best fit as a SP, and the Giants are the best team we lineup with because they need offense. 

Criticize away, but they price might be EBJ, Stowers, and Norby for Snell. 

I make that trade, when you choose not to address needs in the offseason, then you gotta slightly “overpay” in prospects at the deadline. 

I don’t think you have to pay that much for Snell.

He is essentially a rental and one who has been hurt and not pitching great. He’s not a salary dump but he’s not too far from that.

He would definitely be on my list if he were made available. 
 

The Giants are a team to watch.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think you have to pay that much for Snell.

He is essentially a rental and one who has been hurt and not pitching great. He’s not a salary dump but he’s not too far from that.

He would definitely be on my list if he were made available. 
 

The Giants are a team to watch.

You don’t think that, but what if that’s the price then do you make that trade. Gun to your head…. EBJ, Stowers, and Norby, for Snell. No middling. Yes/No. 

That’s for anyone. Not just SG. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You don’t think that, but what if that’s the price then do you make that trade. Gun to your head…. EBJ, Stowers, and Norby, for Snell. No middling. Yes/No. 

That’s for anyone. Not just SG. 

Kikuchi was your guy for awhile but now you seem hooked on Snell. 

It's a decent idea but if you're giving up that much for Snell you might as well add in a top 3 guy and go for Skubal IMO. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You don’t think that, but what if that’s the price then do you make that trade. Gun to your head…. EBJ, Stowers, and Norby, for Snell. No middling. Yes/No. 

That’s for anyone. Not just SG. 

It’s not just a yes or no question because it depends on what else you can do with those players that you prefer. If that package gets us Luzardo and Scott, Puk or Nardi, I’m making that deal instead of Snell.  Or if Norby and Beavers gets you Fedde, I may prefer that as we can use Stowers and EBJ to get us BP help.

So it’s really all over the place in terms of an answer. I think I would make that deal if those guys don’t help us get others or if we can accomplish other goals without those guys but really it matters how the whole puzzle fits together.

[sportsfan8703]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

Kikuchi was your guy for awhile but now you seem hooked on Snell. 

It's a decent idea but if you're giving up that much for Snell you might as well add in a top 3 guy and go for Skubal IMO. 

Snell has made 3 successful starts. The Giants lost last night. Let’s hope the LAD take the next two. 

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not just a yes or no question because it depends on what else you can do with those players that you prefer. If that package gets us Luzardo and Scott, Puk or Nardi, I’m making that deal instead of Snell.  Or if Norby and Beavers gets you Fedde, I may prefer that as we can use Stowers and EBJ to get us BP help.

So it’s really all over the place in terms of an answer. I think I would make that deal if those guys don’t help us get others or if we can accomplish other goals without those guys but really it matters how the whole puzzle fits together.

Keep in mind that the Dodgers and Yankees are splashing around for a SP. 

I also doubt the SFG want Snell making another start. Since he is the best, most realistic SP available, then he probably goes first and sets the market. 

It’s a tough price, but we get our guy. The guy. The LH SP. We get to roll into October with Burnes, Snell, Grayson… to start any series. 

Snell’s ERA also immediately hits 0.00 as soon as he changes leagues. For people, that care about that type of thing. Who cares about those essentially Spring Training Starts he made in April/May?  He’s got a fresh arm too. Not an innings limit like Skubal and Crochet. 

If I’m Elias, I put that trade out there to Sabean from SFG, and tell him he has 72 hours. 

Root hard for the Dodgers the next two games. 

Edited July 23 by sportsfan8703

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Snell has made 3 successful starts. The Giants lost last night. Let’s hope the LAD take the next two. 

Keep in mind that the Dodgers and Yankees are splashing around for a SP. 

I also doubt the SFG want Snell making another start. Since he is the best, most realistic SP available, then he probably goes first and sets the market. 

It’s a tough price, but we get our guy. The guy. The LH SP. We get to roll into October with Burnes, Snell, Grayson… to start any series. 

Snell’s ERA also immediately hits 0.00 as soon as he changes leagues. For people, that care about that type of thing. Who cares about those essentially Spring Training Starts he made in April/May?  He’s got a fresh arm too. Not an innings limit like Skubal and Crochet. 

If I’m Elias, I put that trade out there to Sabean from SFG, and tell him he has 48 hours. 

Stats do not reset anymore with changing leagues (probably due to the high frequency of inter league play).

Now back to Snell - You are all over the place! lol

One day Crochet. The next Fedde. The Skubal. The next Kikuchi. The next Snell...

For the sake of your sanity, I hope the O’s do something. Just so you can experience a little calm…lol

[OriolesMagic83]

42 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People are going to hate hearing this, but best case scenario for us is that the Giants fall out and put Snell on the market. He’s the best fit as a SP, and the Giants are the best team we lineup with because they need offense. 

Criticize away, but they price might be EBJ, Stowers, and Norby for Snell. 

I make that trade, when you choose not to address needs in the offseason, then you gotta slightly “overpay” in prospects at the deadline. 

Probably is the best starter the O's can reasonably get w/o trading 1/2 the farm.  Just have to pray he stays healthy.  

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

If I’m Elias, I put that trade out there to Sabean from SFG, and tell him he has 72 hours. 

 

Brian Sabean doesn’t even work for the Giants anymore.

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Stats do not reset anymore with changing leagues (probably due to the high frequency of inter league play).

Now back to Snell - You are all over the place! lol

One day Crochet. The next Fedde. The Skubal. The next Kikuchi. The next Snell...

For the sake of your sanity, I hope the O’s do something. Just so you can experience a little calm…lol

Yeah, it’s sort of a dream scenario for us that Snell is available. We were never giving him or any pitcher that contract. The market evolved and sort of fell in our laps. IF, huge IF, Snell is even available. 

If we could come out of the deadline with Snell, and the big 3, then you have to say that’s the dream scenario. Nobody saw this 2-3 weeks ago. 

Root for the LAD, Mets, and Cardinals. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Brian Sabean doesn’t even work for the Giants anymore.

Per usual, criticize the wording versus the idea. It could be Nick Sabean for all I care. The “Giants GM”. Whoever that is. 

Edited July 23 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Probably is the best starter the O's can reasonably get w/o trading 1/2 the farm.  Just have to pray he stays healthy.  

Quote

Snell will earn a $15 million salary in 2024 while also receiving a $17 million signing bonus, payable on January 15, 2026. Snell will earn $30 million in 2025, of which $15 million will be deferred and paid on July 1, 2027.

If the O's trade for him they will have to pay the reminder of the 15M for this year, the 17M signing bonus and then 30 million for next season with half of that deferred.

I don't see that happening.  That extra 17M is a kick in the nether regions.