Choices: how many big long term contracts will the O’s be able to afford?

[Frobby]

I’ve just been looking at payroll construction for other teams with payrolls higher than the Orioles but not upper tier.  There are 6 teams between $128 - 172 mm that I consider in this comp group.  Those are nos. 11-16 in total payroll.  There’s a fairly big leap to no. 10 ($208 mm) and I doubt that’s realistic for the O’s unless Rubinstein just feels like heavily subsidizing his ballclub, which I doubt.  

Anyway, what stands out to me about these six clubs is that none of them have more than two players making in excess of $20 mm this year.  Here’s how they break down:

STL ($172 mm): Arenado $35 mm, Goldschmidt $26 mm, 2 between $15-20 mm, 4 between $10-15 mm.

BOS ($168 mm): Devers $29.5 mm, Story $22.5 mm, 3 at $15-20 mm.

LAA ($151 mm): Rendon $38.6 mm, Trout $37.1 mm, 2 between $10-15 mm.

SDP ($145 mm): Bogaerts $25.5 mm, Musgrove $20 mm, 2 between $15-20 mm, 3 between $10-15 mm.  (Manny’s contract is heavily backloaded.)

AZD ($143 mm): Montgomery $25 mm, 6 between $10-15 mm.

COL($128 mm): Bryant $28 mm, 5 between $10–15 mm.

So when you think about 2029,  it would be very difficult to pay all four of Burnes, Adley, Gunnar and Bradish at FA prices.   At that point you’ve also potentially got Grayson, Westburg and Cowser in Arb 3, and maybe Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo in Arb 1 or 2.   

Bottom line, we won’t be able to sign all these guys long term, and choices will have to be made.  Starting with Burnes this winter.   I wonder how he’d feel about a front loaded deal with opt outs. 

 

[Sports Guy]

Sign position players, not pitchers.

Also, don’t pay middling players middling money .. it rarely pays off to do that.

Edited June 4 by Sports Guy

[Spy Fox]

Thanks for compiling. 

Also, the Rockies are 16th in payroll?! Lord help them. 

[scbalt52]

I wouldn't worry about Burnes, I can't see us resigning him. So that's one gone.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sign position players, not pitchers.

Also, don’t pay middling players middling money .. it rarely pays off to do that.

The trophies the O's got for signing Kevin Millar will live forever.

[oriole]

A pertinent note would be that few of those players making $20m are working out very well for their respective clubs. 

[Sports Guy]

And don’t overpay for guys who are coming off career best years, especially aging guys…see Jordan Montgomery as a recent example.

Edited June 4 by Sports Guy

[vab]

Yes, just have to be very selective with the long term deals and keep the talent pipeline (through draft/develop and trades) flowing to replace the others. One of Gunnar/Adley and maybe G-Rod and Westburg but that's about it. 

[Bemorewins]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve just been looking at payroll construction for other teams with payrolls higher than the Orioles but not upper tier.  There are 6 teams between $128 - 172 mm that I consider in this comp group.  Those are nos. 11-16 in total payroll.  There’s a fairly big leap to no. 10 ($208 mm) and I doubt that’s realistic for the O’s unless Rubinstein just feels like heavily subsidizing his ballclub, which I doubt.  

Anyway, what stands out to me about these six clubs is that none of them have more than two players making in excess of $20 mm this year.  Here’s how they break down:

STL ($172 mm): Arenado $35 mm, Goldschmidt $26 mm, 2 between $15-20 mm, 4 between $10-15 mm.

BOS ($168 mm): Devers $29.5 mm, Story $22.5 mm, 3 at $15-20 mm.

LAA ($151 mm): Rendon $38.6 mm, Trout $37.1 mm, 2 between $10-15 mm.

SDP ($145 mm): Bogaerts $25.5 mm, Musgrove $20 mm, 2 between $15-20 mm, 3 between $10-15 mm.  (Manny’s contract is heavily backloaded.)

AZD ($143 mm): Montgomery $25 mm, 6 between $10-15 mm.

COL($128 mm): Bryant $28 mm, 5 between $10–15 mm.

So when you think about 2029,  it would be very difficult to pay all four of Burnes, Adley, Gunnar and Bradish at FA prices.   At that point you’ve also potentially got Grayson, Westburg and Cowser in Arb 3, and maybe Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo in Arb 1 or 2.   

Bottom line, we won’t be able to sign all these guys long term, and choices will have to be made.  Starting with Burnes this winter.   I wonder how he’d feel about a front loaded deal with opt outs. 

 

I agree with you state in terms of it not being realistic to expect to resign all of our players.

However, I think it is impossible to know or project at this point who and how much. Unless someone has personal insight/info from Rubenstein or someone close to him, the only thing that we can do is speculate or take wild guesses. Even when it comes to Gunnar and Holliday (with Boras being the agent) we don't know if extending them before FA is even a possibility. 

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve just been looking at payroll construction for other teams with payrolls higher than the Orioles but not upper tier.  There are 6 teams between $128 - 172 mm that I consider in this comp group.  Those are nos. 11-16 in total payroll.  There’s a fairly big leap to no. 10 ($208 mm) and I doubt that’s realistic for the O’s unless Rubinstein just feels like heavily subsidizing his ballclub, which I doubt.  

Anyway, what stands out to me about these six clubs is that none of them have more than two players making in excess of $20 mm this year.  Here’s how they break down:

STL ($172 mm): Arenado $35 mm, Goldschmidt $26 mm, 2 between $15-20 mm, 4 between $10-15 mm.

BOS ($168 mm): Devers $29.5 mm, Story $22.5 mm, 3 at $15-20 mm.

LAA ($151 mm): Rendon $38.6 mm, Trout $37.1 mm, 2 between $10-15 mm.

SDP ($145 mm): Bogaerts $25.5 mm, Musgrove $20 mm, 2 between $15-20 mm, 3 between $10-15 mm.  (Manny’s contract is heavily backloaded.)

AZD ($143 mm): Montgomery $25 mm, 6 between $10-15 mm.

COL($128 mm): Bryant $28 mm, 5 between $10–15 mm.

So when you think about 2029,  it would be very difficult to pay all four of Burnes, Adley, Gunnar and Bradish at FA prices.   At that point you’ve also potentially got Grayson, Westburg and Cowser in Arb 3, and maybe Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo in Arb 1 or 2.   

Bottom line, we won’t be able to sign all these guys long term, and choices will have to be made.  Starting with Burnes this winter.   I wonder how he’d feel about a front loaded deal with opt outs. 

 

I don't believe it's about what other teams do.   It's about what Elias tells Rubenstien the O's need to do to stay at the top of the MLB.   And what Rubenstein wants to pay.

There are 4-5 years of prospect acquiring and development to think about.    There will be returns on trades of redundant players. 

We have no indication of what Rubenstein and Elias will do.   I for one am ready to sit back and watch it unfold.  Mainly because if I guess, I am probably wrong.

As far as Burnes goes.   He is probably going to get 5-8 years at some crazy price.    I doubt the O's go there.

What GRod, Bradish, Irvin, Kremer, Suarez, McDermott and Povich do the rest of the season is probably more telling.

[Say O!]

Bradish will be 32yrs old, turning 33 in Aug of 2029.  Its not wise to sign pitchers at that age with injury histories to big FA money deals.  Maybe Elias would consider something like an 1yr extension along with buying out remaining arb years.

[Aristotelian]

Is the question how many we can afford or how many will actually happen? 

Would a 1-2 extra year extension count as "big long term"? I think we could do 2-3 of those without too much cost or risk. I would be interested in any of Aldey, Westburg, Holliday, Bradish, Grayson and Bautista for those type of deals. Adley has the same agent as Chourio, who sold 2 extra years plus team options, so there is some precedent there.

If we are talking about 6/$200+ type deals or "Oriole for life" extensions, the safest guess is zero. 

I would love to get Gunnar locked up but I think at this point Boras will just say no as a matter of principle. 

[Too Tall]

It all depends on who and how structured. Gunnar for example is a generational talent who plays with his hair on fire. Will that lead to injuries as years pass? IMO, you offer Gunnar/Boras a good 10 year deal with an opt out at his age 29 year if necessary. Pay for the 20's and pass pretty much on the 30's. Probably a no deal but that's me. I also avoid long term deals (over three to four years) with pitchers because they are fragile and seemingly getting more so. All the above is why I am not a GM or play one on this site or TV.

If the Orioles look to reach and sustain a 150 to 175 mil contract on average going forward, I can see having two fairly large long term deals within that context. I also see Elias doing that in a practical matter with long range balance in mind. Question - how much or what percent of payroll is practical to commit to 2/26 of your roster? IMO, no perfect answer because there are so many variables. Again, why I am not a GM.

[Fuegofuego]

After what happened to Means, they should offer 35 million to buy one year of free agency from Grayson.  The same goes for Gunnar and Adley: offer 35 million per to buy one or two years of free agency.  So 3 players.  

[Just Regular]

One of the ways I've internalized Rubenstein over Angelos is now I'm hopeful the answer to this question is 2, not 1.

Basallo and Mayo I think still present some chance to economize if you move early as they have not done with Adley and Gunnar.

Holliday's the 3rd case tricky to peg right now.

Can we get Roch to cut to the chase and ask Gunnar Henderson if he thinks he's better than Adley Rutschman?     That could help Elias know how to order operations.