I sort of don't get Elias's plan

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Elias's peers think he is among the best in baseball.  

It's now apparent that JA was in sale mode for some time so it's tough to evauate ME without him having a budget to work with.  He added Burnes-which was likely baked into the budget.  

I don't know what Rubenstien will do but he most likely (IMO) will give ME at least a credible MLB budget in-line with revenue which will allow him to gradually increase payroll-gradually as he has to account for arb raises.

If ME had had an additional short term committment of $30m (and used it) I believe would be a different pitching staff.  

It's not possible to discern ME's plans as they will continue to evolve with Rubenstien in control.

Agreed.  ME's MO is more akin to dollar cost averaging than pushing all of his chips in on a few investments.  A lot TBD.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Because that’s the point. That’s more or less what the playoffs are about, getting hot at the right time. 
 

Do you think the 23 Rangers are the only World Series winner that didn’t have what you would call championship winning pitching?

If you believe that the playoffs/World Series is a crap shot, then you should be fine with the roster as is.

I don't believe that. I believe that the better your high performing talent does in the post season against the other team's best talent, the better your odds of succeeding are.

I don't believe for a second that Irvin is going to magically turn into a pitcher that I would have ANY confidence winning a postseason game on the road in NY or Philly. I don't have confidence that Craig Kimbrel will go into one of those environments against those caliber of lineups/opponents and save 2/3/4 games in a 7 game series. I don't believe it's a good bet to bet on him or Cano succeeding against Soto/Judge or Turner/Harper/Realmuto/Bohm or Ohtani/Betts/Freeman with the season on the line. I just don't.

But I respect your opinion if you believe the opposite.

[SemperFi]

18 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Elias has a plan and he's sticking to it. However, the UCL explosions in our arms are definitely his first unforeseen, unplanned bump in the road. A lot of teams are going through this right now.

In my opinion, reading the tea leaves, I felt he was trying "catch up" in the early years of the rebuild by going hard after top position talent in the draft. At the same time, he was using trades to catch up on pitching. He wasn't doing a bad job addressing pitching, but in order to "catch up," drafting top positional talent was smart. Someone said it earlier in this thread, its easier to hit on position players and they're less volatile

The O's brass were not disregarding their pitching plan, but they were trying also keep pace by introducing better player development, analytics, and tech. They were drafting "sleeper arms" in the later rounds of the draft while also quietly acquiring a lot of depth and talent in the international market.

Last years draft was the 1st one that I felt Elias had a focus on drafting better pitching talent. He's a guy that I believe will use his high picks on "best player" available typically, but moving forward, the positional depth allows them to slot more pitchers at the top of their draft list.

In a perfect world, Elias has none of these injuries to deal with and we appear as a Mega pitching program bc we have plenty of starter depth at the MLB level. Last years draft, along with a bunch of DSL arms that have started to creep into A-/A+ give us some good lower level depth. Again, w/o the injuries, we can hide the fact that we are VERY thin at the AA/AAA levels. In 2026, the international depth and the recent drafts depth would have probably met in a perfect storm of talent on the MLB roster, and he'd really look like a genius.

But losing Bautista, Bradish, Means, Wells to UCL/TJs, and also having Columbe and Kremer miss time with injuries exposes that gap in our system's pitching depth that Elias was hoping to hide for another season or two.

 

Nice post-I would also add it's not really "conspiracy theory" stuff to entertain the thought that his plans all changed or were altered when it became apparent the Angelos family had to sell the team.  

He built the wall in his own words to "attract FA pitching" and then the "take-off" quip.  Everything changed when decision to sell the team was made. 

I truly believe that Elias's ST/LT plans were colored by the Angelos situation, we will a better idea of his complete plans with supportive ownership.

[oriolediehard]

6 hours ago, gtman55 said:

I guess my main question in this is whether or not Elias realizes how mediocre the pitching staff currently is. And he needs to make moves ASAP because I can see things unraveling. We have the biggest surplus of trade bait in the MLB. At a minimum we need a top end starter and a top notch reliever. Time is ticking 

If Elias don't realize the issue with our pitching, then where is he????

 

 

 

 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

I'm not sure if you just don't like him and are being intentional but it's Irvin, not Irwin. Ben McDonald calls him Irving. It's just Irvin.

I like him very much and I’m very glad we have him. I just keep spelling it wrong. Thanks for the note.

I really do like him, I just have few illusions about his Cy Young chances.

[Say O!]

Over the offseason, was there any pitching transactions better than ME acquisition of Burnes (#1 starter) and Kimbrel (closer)?  I guess I am confused at any “miscalculations” of the market when your GM is able to bring in from outside the organization the two most valuable pitching positions on the roster.

[LookitsPuck]

7 hours ago, gtman55 said:

First of all, I'm talking about his plan for the Orioles moving forward. I get what the front office was doing early on. Turning around a very bad team by drafting high, picking high upside college hitters the might quickly improve the club. And he's done a helluva job drafting positional talent. But I never understood his reluctance to draft top end college pitching talent.

So what we have is a minor league system system of super talented hitters who are blocked from making the bigs because there's literally too many of them. On the flip side there's little to no major league quality pitching talent at all.

Fast forward to this off-season. Elias knew damn well the odds of Means and Bradish missing significant time was pretty much 100%. We already had lost Felix for the upcoming season and Wells has a long injury history.  He also had to know Cano wasn't the heir apparent at closer or even a high leverage guy.

So what does he do? He brings in an aging Kimbrel to close. And we get Burnes. And believe me, I like Burnes but that wasn't nearly enough for a team with World Series aspirations.

And now in late June, it's coming unglued. The pitching injuries are mounting. Guys like Irvin and Suarez are showing they just don't have what it takes. We choose our best minor league arm and it's Cade Povich. I like the kid but he's a fifth starter at best.

I guess my main question in this is whether or not Elias realizes how mediocre the pitching staff currently is. And he needs to make moves ASAP because I can see things unraveling. We have the biggest surplus of trade bait in the MLB. At a minimum we need a top end starter and a top notch reliever. Time is ticking 

 

 

 

I do fault Elias for not having a backup plan for Means. And relying on Tyler Wells as any kind of starter wasn't a great idea. Montgomery would have been great insurance.

Bradish the O's found out about in February. Here were the available options at that date (mid Feb):

• Chase Anderson - uhh, no
• Brandon Woodruff - hurt at time of signing
• Brad Keller - career 4.50 (give or take) ERA guy with the FIP to match
• Domingo German - domestic violence, stinks in the minors with the Pirates right now
• Michael Lorenzen - would have been a good option, tbh
• Jordan Montgomery - would have been a good option

Lorenzen and Montgomery would have been solid options/insurance. 

Also, I disagree 100% on Povich. Definitely not a 5th starter *at best*. 

[Orioles Jim]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

I do fault Elias for not having a backup plan for Means. And relying on Tyler Wells as any kind of starter wasn't a great idea. Montgomery would have been great insurance.

Bradish the O's found out about in February. Here were the available options at that date (mid Feb):

• Chase Anderson - uhh, no
• Brandon Woodruff - hurt at time of signing
• Brad Keller - career 4.50 (give or take) ERA guy with the FIP to match
• Domingo German - domestic violence, stinks in the minors with the Pirates right now
• Michael Lorenzen - would have been a good option, tbh
• Jordan Montgomery - would have been a good option

Lorenzen and Montgomery would have been solid options/insurance. 

Also, I disagree 100% on Povich. Definitely not a 5th starter *at best*. 

In fairness, Jordan Montgomery with his 5.71 ERA, people might be roasting Elias for that one all the same.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I do fault Elias for not having a backup plan for Means. And relying on Tyler Wells as any kind of starter wasn't a great idea. Montgomery would have been great insurance.

Bradish the O's found out about in February. Here were the available options at that date (mid Feb):

• Chase Anderson - uhh, no
• Brandon Woodruff - hurt at time of signing
• Brad Keller - career 4.50 (give or take) ERA guy with the FIP to match
• Domingo German - domestic violence, stinks in the minors with the Pirates right now
• Michael Lorenzen - would have been a good option, tbh
• Jordan Montgomery - would have been a good option

Lorenzen and Montgomery would have been solid options/insurance. 

Also, I disagree 100% on Povich. Definitely not a 5th starter *at best*. 

Do you believe that Elias had the leeway to sign Montgomery (who has been terrible for ARI) under the awful Scrooge McAngelos?

[Philip]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I never said Irvin wasn’t adequate. I’m perfectly happy with him in the rotation. 
 

Secondly, I didn’t confirm anything. We aren’t going to slowly sink. If the Os don’t make one move, they still get into the playoffs and at that point, anything can happen. What we aren’t right now, in all likelihood, is a team that appears prime to win a WS. I think we need more pitching for that but sinking?  No, that’s overboard and ridiculous.

Worrying in such circumstances is not ridiculous. Expecting a decline without additions is not ridiculous.

You just said we need to make additions. “If the Os don’t make one move we CAN still get into the playoffs.” Going from our current 90+% chance of making the playoffs to “can” is a decline.

I didn’t say we wouldn’t make October, I said that if we make no acquisitions we would slowly sink and that we wouldn’t maintain our current pace, which is  pretty clear. I’m surprised you think we would.

[Orioles West]

Late to thread — but to the original post — I think Kimbrel was a decent stand in as a closer while Bautista heals. But I think the Elias plan was based on a blueprint he was required to with with under previous ownership. The Rubenstein Era is starting with a steep learning curve and no one knows if the budget for payroll will grow a little, a lot or not much. 

So, I would say the next steps of whatever Elias wants to do, will be based on discussions with DR on what the budget will look like going forward. If no big changes are happening on the money front, then I think we will start to see more trades.

The OP critique is reasonable, but seems a bit early and due more to injuries and a five game skid, as the team has played pretty darn good before the last week. I do wish we would hear more from the front office about payroll investment or whatever their near term goals are (I am sure they like being competitive, I hope they want even more).

The O’s are a playoff team — but I agree we look a few arms short for a run at the World Series.

[Moose Milligan]

21 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If you believe that the playoffs/World Series is a crap shot, then you should be fine with the roster as is.

I don't believe that. I believe that the better your high performing talent does in the post season against the other team's best talent, the better your odds of succeeding are.

 

Then how come the Dodgers only have one World Series in a Mickey Mouse season?

[Philip]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Do you believe that Elias had the leeway to sign Montgomery (who has been terrible for ARI) under the awful Scrooge McAngelos?

I agree that Angelos tied Mikes hands to an extent, but that begs the question of why he was allowed to pay for Kimbrel and trade for Burnes.

And if Angelo’s OKed those moves, why not others?
 

Once Rubenstein took over, the discussion certainly changed, but presumably Mike would have much more freedom to trade assets. Not necessarily sign big FAs, but trade assets.

We don’t know for sure, but Mike is mostly in charge of happens now.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Worrying in such circumstances is not ridiculous. Expecting a decline without additions is not ridiculous.

You just said we need to make additions. “If the Os don’t make one move we CAN still get into the playoffs.” Going from our current 90+% chance of making the playoffs to “can” is a decline.

I didn’t say we wouldn’t make October, I said that if we make no acquisitions we would slowly sink and that we wouldn’t maintain our current pace, which is  pretty clear. I’m surprised you think we would.

You are just parsing words.  The Orioles are not missing the playoffs.  
 

And yea, your overreactions are ridiculous. Being worried that we don’t have enough to win a WS makes sense. Being concerned that the team is going to sink and not be good is just not smart.

[sportsfan8703]

7 hours ago, gtman55 said:

First of all, I'm talking about his plan for the Orioles moving forward. I get what the front office was doing early on. Turning around a very bad team by drafting high, picking high upside college hitters the might quickly improve the club. And he's done a helluva job drafting positional talent. But I never understood his reluctance to draft top end college pitching talent.

So what we have is a minor league system system of super talented hitters who are blocked from making the bigs because there's literally too many of them. On the flip side there's little to no major league quality pitching talent at all.

Fast forward to this off-season. Elias knew damn well the odds of Means and Bradish missing significant time was pretty much 100%. We already had lost Felix for the upcoming season and Wells has a long injury history.  He also had to know Cano wasn't the heir apparent at closer or even a high leverage guy.

So what does he do? He brings in an aging Kimbrel to close. And we get Burnes. And believe me, I like Burnes but that wasn't nearly enough for a team with World Series aspirations.

And now in late June, it's coming unglued. The pitching injuries are mounting. Guys like Irvin and Suarez are showing they just don't have what it takes. We choose our best minor league arm and it's Cade Povich. I like the kid but he's a fifth starter at best.

I guess my main question in this is whether or not Elias realizes how mediocre the pitching staff currently is. And he needs to make moves ASAP because I can see things unraveling. We have the biggest surplus of trade bait in the MLB. At a minimum we need a top end starter and a top notch reliever. Time is ticking 

 

 

 

The plan is he went out and bought one of the best pitcher's in baseball.  We have the best offensive/defensive group of position players in baseball.  We've lost 3 SP to TJ.  Any team would have some hiccups.  Heck, the Astros and Braves are starting dudes that have barely pitched in AA ball.