Heston Kjerstad 2024

[CharlieC]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t agree at all with your narrative.  The guy didn’t play for nearly two years due to myocarditis and a hamstrung injury.  That’s not the Orioles’ fault.  He’ll get his chances again.  

He was playing well in limited at bats the last time up.  I hope this time next year they have quit the yo-yo routine when he’s 26.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, CharlieC said:

He was playing well in limited at bats the last time up.  I hope this time next year they have quit the yo-yo routine when he’s 26.

First of all, his bats in his last call-up weren’t that limited.   He started 10 of 17 games, and played in another 4, before getting hit in the head on July 12.   After going through the concussion protocol, Kjerstad started 5 of the next 10 games, playing in another two.  In that second batch, he hit .111/.238/.111, and did not look like himself.   Since he was sent back to the minors, he hasn’t played in a game in a week.   So, it’s pretty obvious that the O’s concluded he wasn’t 100% recovered from his concussion.  That’s why he’s not in the majors.  I expect we will see him again this year once he’s healthy and hitting well again in AAA.

[CharlieC]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First of all, his bats in his last call-up weren’t that limited.   He started 10 of 17 games, and played in another 4, before getting hit in the head on July 12.   After going through the concussion protocol, Kjerstad started 5 of the next 10 games, playing in another two.  In that second batch, he hit .111/.238/.111, and did not look like himself.   Since he was sent back to the minors, he hasn’t played in a game in a week.   So, it’s pretty obvious that the O’s concluded he wasn’t 100% recovered from his concussion.  That’s why he’s not in the majors.  I expect we will see him again this year once he’s healthy and hitting well again in AAA.

Ok, let’s look at 2025, since 2024 hasn’t really worked out for him in the majors because of either being blocked and of course the concussion. Will he be a regular starter at 26 years old?  Will they free up the log jam, trade him, or keep trading for players to block him even further?

[CaptainRedbeard]

Joey Ortiz and Michael Busch were the “but they’re so old!” top 100 prospects before this year. The season’s going great for them. 

Kjerstad’s birthday is the same week as Jordan Westburg’s. Despite the massive delay in Kjerstad’s career, they were comparable hitters at AAA in their age 24 season (Westburg the first half of the year, Kjerstad the second half). Kjerstad went so fast through the low minors after his recovery that he was only about half a season behind Westburg on the development track before this year.

The difference is Westburg got his full time MLB opportunities this year, and Kjerstad’s been stuck mashing AAA pitching to the tune of a .998 OPS and 150 wRC+.

Next year is Kjerstad’s year.

 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, CharlieC said:

Ok, let’s look at 2025, since 2024 hasn’t really worked out for him in the majors because of either being blocked and of course the concussion. Will he be a regular starter at 26 years old?  Will they free up the log jam, trade him, or keep trading for players to block him even further?

I expect Kjerstad to get 400-600 PA next year, depending how he performs.  

[SurhoffFTW]

7 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Joey Ortiz and Michael Busch were the “but they’re so old!” top 100 prospects before this year. The season’s going great for them. 

Kjerstad’s birthday is the same week as Jordan Westburg’s. Despite the massive delay in Kjerstad’s career, they were comparable hitters at AAA in their age 24 season (Westburg the first half of the year, Kjerstad the second half). Kjerstad went so fast through the low minors after his recovery that he was only about half a season behind Westburg on the development track before this year.

The difference is Westburg got his full time MLB opportunities this year, and Kjerstad’s been stuck mashing AAA pitching to the tune of a .998 OPS and 150 wRC+.

Next year is Kjerstad’s year.

 

Ortiz bat has cooled significantly recently. 

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

He will be back. Especially if Mullins continues to struggle the way he is. Quick reset.

He plays center now?  Last I saw him, he was struggling to play RF and LF was an adventure.

[Rbiggs2525]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

He plays center now?  Last I saw him, he was struggling to play RF and LF was an adventure.

Cowser would move to center. You cant keep running Mullins out there if he doesn’t start to hit.

[CaptainRedbeard]

10 minutes ago, CharlieC said:

Ok, let’s look at 2025, since 2024 hasn’t really worked out for him in the majors because of either being blocked and of course the concussion. Will he be a regular starter at 26 years old?  Will they free up the log jam, trade him, or keep trading for players to block him even further?

Kjerstad is either going to have opportunity to be the starting RF next year or he’s going to be traded. I agree this is the breaking point and I don’t really like adding Eloy and sending Kjerstad down, but their decisions to date with Kjerstad have been reasonable.

I think the Orioles kept all of Cowser, O’Hearn and Kjerstad this offseason even with MLB roster space for only two of them because they wanted to compete this year and (1) Cowser had bust potential after his bad first MLB stint, (2) O’Hearn had huge regression potential after 4 straight miserable years with the Royals before the Orioles “fixed him” at age 30 and (3) Kjerstad still had limited AAA experience at that point, and could still benefit from more. (The player they really discounted / hurt by this approach was Stowers, but he was coming off a lost season of injuries and is a much more marginal prospect…but I digress.)

This trade deadline, Cowser and O’Hearn have panned out and I think they would have considered Kjerstad in deals. But nobody worthy of him was traded - not even close, arguably zero top 100 prospects were moved. And with Santander an impending free agent, Hays traded (as well as Stowers and Norby) and Mullins having a big down year, there’s clear opportunity for Kjerstad to step into a full time role next year.

I don’t think all of this has started to hurt Kjerstad’s trade value, especially since he has destroyed AAA this year (more than just done well) and hit well in his MLB stints. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

10 minutes ago, SurhoffFTW said:

Ortiz bat has cooled significantly recently. 

So? It’s still been a great year for him. He was an “old” prospect by virtue of being blocked the exact same way Kjerstad has been this year - whose trade value was still good enough to be the headliner for Corbin Burnes, by the way - and he still projects to be an above average regular for his 5 years of team control after this year.

[CaptainRedbeard]

13 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Cowser would move to center. You cant keep running Mullins out there if he doesn’t start to hit.

Mullins has been hitting .252/.319/.444 since June 1. He HAS started to hit. He’s put up 0.9 fWAR during that time, about a 3 WAR/season pace. That’s a big reason why Kjerstad is in AAA.

I’d still rather have Kjerstad on the MLB team and taking ABs away from Mullins and Mountcastle rather than use that roster spot on Eloy Jimenez, but I understand the reasoning when they want to be able to have a right handed DH/pinch hitter for the playoffs when Adley won’t be DHing.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Mullins has been hitting .252/.319/.444 since June 1. He HAS started to hit. He’s put up 0.9 fWAR during that time, about a 3 WAR/season pace. That’s a big reason why Kjerstad is in AAA.

 

With Mullins, much depends on how you slice the pie.  He hit well most of June, then sucked the first half of July through the all star break (.462 OPS).   Came back from the break and raked the rest of July (1.142 OPS), now has looked bad the first week of August (0 for 13).   Your post-June 1 numbers are decent but he seems to be running very hot and cold.  Hopefully he heats back up this week.  

[terpoh]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

So? It’s still been a great year for him. He was an “old” prospect by virtue of being blocked the exact same way Kjerstad has been this year - whose trade value was still good enough to be the headliner for Corbin Burnes, by the way - and he still projects to be an above average regular for his 5 years of team control after this year.

He had an OPS of .433 in July and and an OPS of .182 in August. He did have a great first half of the year, but hes entering a territory where I dont know that you can call it a "great year for him." He's very close to having an OPS+ for the year under 100. I understand hes a rookie, and he still plays great defense. But I dont know that Milwaukee will be thrilled with his year if he stays cold. Its a long season.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, terpoh said:

He had an OPS of .433 in July and and an OPS of .182 in August. He did have a great first half of the year, but hes entering a territory where I dont know that you can call it a "great year for him." He's very close to having an OPS+ for the year under 100. I understand hes a rookie, and he still plays great defense. But I dont know that Milwaukee will be thrilled with his year if he stays cold. Its a long season.

Ortiz also missed July 2-11 with some kind of injury, that marked the start of his slump.   Maybe there is some lingering issue.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 minute ago, terpoh said:

He had an OPS of .433 in July and and an OPS of .182 in August. He did have a great first half of the year, but hes entering a territory where I dont know that you can call it a "great year for him." He's very close to having an OPS+ for the year under 100. I understand hes a rookie, and he still plays great defense. But I dont know that Milwaukee will be thrilled with his year if he stays cold. It’s a long season.

You’re talking about a sample of 74 PA since July 1, with a .184 BABIP. 

Like Mullins, Ortiz been streaky. He was also not as good as his numbers at the start of the season indicated when he was hot. Those tend to even put over the long run, unless there’s something underlying that can be attributed to the cold streaks other than just a small sample of poor performance. When a player nears 30 it’s reasonable to wonder if it’s an age related decline - like Mullins - but not Ortiz at age 26. 

Ortiz has been 2.0 fWAR with a 109 wRC+ on the season. He’s projected for 100 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR rest of the season on Fangraphs. With his defense, that’s an above average player at 3B, and will be more valuable when they’re playing him at SS next year after Adames walks this offseason.