Skubal trade..Kjerstad, Mountcastle, McDermott and Bradfield?

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Say O! said:

Right. And Skubal left arm has already gone thru TJ once in 2016/2017 and surgery for flexor tendon in 2022.  Some  posters are acting like it’s a given to get 3yrs of health and postseason run.  When it may at best be 50/50 for a guy who throws 97 with that injury history. 

I don’t think any pitcher is a given. All of them carry the risk of the next pitch being the last for the season.

But risk should be weighed vs potential reward.

The proposition to be considered is what is more risky? Acquiring a starter with very high potential for reward (like Skubal) who is at risk for injury vs. acquiring a lesser talented starter who offers less upside yet still is at risk for injury vs. doing nothing/rolling with what we have with pitchers who are almost assuredly to give you a much lower ceiling and still carry the risk of injury.

[UMDTerrapins]

I’m gonna play devils advocate for giggles.  As much as I want to win 2024, I don’t want to trade any of our standout prospects for a starter. I’m growing more and more fond of pitchers who have success because of pitch location and don’t max out on velocity. They’re less sexy, but they’re less vulnerable to TJ and cost less to acquire. Skubal is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he’s upped his velocity each of the past two years. Means was a middling prospect until he found more velocity…..until he wrecked his arm. How are we going to feel about our competitive window if we give a huge haul for someone like Skubal and he’s under the knife in August? If the Royals stank and Seth Lugo was available, that’s the kind of guy I’d be targeting at a smaller cost of talent. Only a few teams are really out of the WC. If Oakland would trade Joey Estes for Connor Norby or Washington with Jake Irvin (spitballing suggestion only, don’t attack me), we’d probably lose our minds that ME didn’t shoot higher. But all things considered, including risk aversion, I’m not convinced that kind of pitcher and trade (preferably a lefty) wouldn’t be better for us. I don’t want to be on the flip side of a Bedard trade. We can sign a top FA starter (Rubenstein willing) who blows out his arm and not be deeply impacted, but we shouldn’t spend our prospect capital for a short term ace rental who’s lost to injury for his tenure….I’m more inclined to protect our competitive window. 

Edited July 8 by UMDTerrapins

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Eric Fedde would be a rotation upgrade at a much lower cost and you'd still have a chance at a title.  No doubt, a healthy Skubal gives you a better chance.

IMO I see Skubal as helping us much more than Fedde next year. 

I’m concerned about this outlier season from Fedde as nothing more than catching lightening in a bottle (especially at his age and with his track record before this season).

Also, for all of the concern over Skubal and Crochet’s innings, Fedde has only thrown something like 133 innings as a career high in a single season.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, UMDTerrapins said:

I’m gonna play devils advocate for giggles.  As much as I want to win 2024, I don’t want to trade any of our standout prospects for a starter. I’m growing more and more fond of pitchers who have success because of pitch location and don’t max out on velocity. They’re less sexy, but they’re less vulnerable to TJ and cost less to acquire. Skubal is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he’s upped his velocity each of the past two years. Means was a middling prospect until he found more velocity…..until he wrecked his arm. How are we going to feel about our competitive window if we give a huge haul for someone like Skubal and he’s under the knife in August? If the Royals stank and Seth Lugo was available, that’s the kind of guy I’d be targeting at a smaller cost of talent. Only a few teams are really out of the WC. If Oakland would trade Joey Estes for Connor Norby (spitballing suggestion only, don’t attack me), we’d probably lose our minds that ME didn’t shoot higher. But all things considered, including risk aversion, I’m not convinced that kind of pitcher and trade (preferably a lefty) wouldn’t be better for us. I don’t want to be on the flip side of a Bedard trade. We can sign a top FA starter (Rubenstein willing) who blows out his arm and not be deeply impacted, but we shouldn’t spend our prospect capital for a short term ace rental who’s lost to injury for his tenure, with really hurting our competitive window. 

Are they?

Wells doesn't throw hard by today's standards, neither does Means.

 

[sportsfan8703]

Things to consider…

We’re sort of pot committed to try and win a WS this year since we have Butnes. 

What has more value?  Skubal for 3 postseasons or Holliday for 6?  Give me the SP. 

Isn’t it risk adverse to acquire Skubal and have a big 3 rotation to limit having a red hot lineup beat you?  Ala Rangers. 

If not Skubal now, we still have to make a big trade in the offseason to replace Burnes. Why not make the trade now and have that SP paired with Burnes?

[UMDTerrapins]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are they?

Wells doesn't throw hard by today's standards, neither does Means.

 

It’s not entirely the number, it’s the stress and exertion that goes into achieving the velocity. Means found himself by off-season training to extract extra velocity from his mechanics. It made him who he is, but I question whether it also made him the injury risk that he is. 

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I’m gonna play devils advocate for giggles.  As much as I want to win 2024, I don’t want to trade any of our standout prospects for a starter. I’m growing more and more fond of pitchers who have success because of pitch location and don’t max out on velocity. They’re less sexy, but they’re less vulnerable to TJ and cost less to acquire. Skubal is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he’s upped his velocity each of the past two years. Means was a middling prospect until he found more velocity…..until he wrecked his arm. How are we going to feel about our competitive window if we give a huge haul for someone like Skubal and he’s under the knife in August? If the Royals stank and Seth Lugo was available, that’s the kind of guy I’d be targeting at a smaller cost of talent. Only a few teams are really out of the WC. If Oakland would trade Joey Estes for Connor Norby (spitballing suggestion only, don’t attack me), we’d probably lose our minds that ME didn’t shoot higher. But all things considered, including risk aversion, I’m not convinced that kind of pitcher and trade (preferably a lefty) wouldn’t be better for us. I don’t want to be on the flip side of a Bedard trade. We can sign a top FA starter (Rubenstein willing) who blows out his arm and not be deeply impacted, but we shouldn’t spend our prospect capital for a short term ace rental who’s lost to injury for his tenure….I’m more inclined to protect our competitive window. 

Skubal not Crochet would be a “short term ace rental”. 

Now on to your “competitive window” point - Corbin Burnes is a big part of why this team is where it is at the top of the AL East. Take him away next year and combine that with Bradish’s injury and you don’t have the kind of starting staff (in the absence of trades/FA acquisitions) who is good enough to be a serious contender. I’m not even sure if we would qualify for the playoffs if our rotation was Rodriguez, Kremer, Suarez, Irvin, Povich/McDermott.

Conversely our offense is amazing/top of MLB without contributions from any of our top 3 prospects.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, UMDTerrapins said:

It’s not entirely the number, it’s the stress and exertion that goes into achieving the velocity. Means found himself by off-season training to extract extra velocity from his mechanics. It made him who he is, but I question whether it also made him the injury risk that he is. 

You know me, I'd just like some evidence.

Velocity increases effectiveness.

In a general sense throwing harder is better, just like striking guys out is better.

There are reasons that teams, and players, chase velocity.

[Rbiggs2525]

I really like Skubal but he looks like an injury waiting to happen. His mechanics remind me of McClanahan from Rays.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Skubal not Crochet would be a “short term ace rental”. 

Now on to your “competitive window” point - Corbin Burnes is a big part of why this team is where it is at the top of the AL East. Take him away next year and combine that with Bradish’s injury and you don’t have the kind of starting staff (in the absence of trades/FA acquisitions) who is good enough to be a serious contender. I’m not even sure if we would qualify for the playoffs if our rotation was Rodriguez, Kremer, Suarez, Irvin, Povich/McDermott.

Conversely our offense is amazing/top of MLB without contributions from any of our top 3 prospects.

Which is why they should find a 2ay to keep Burnes

[UMDTerrapins]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You know me, I'd just like some evidence.

Velocity increases effectiveness.

In a general sense throwing harder is better, just like striking guys out is better.

There are reasons that teams, and players, chase velocity.

Not gonna disagree because that’s all true. Like I said, I’m playing devils advocate. But I am becoming more enamored with successful location pitchers who don’t have to max out to squeeze every last tick. 

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

IMO I see Skubal as helping us much more than Fedde next year. 

I’m concerned about this outlier season from Fedde as nothing more than catching lightening in a bottle (especially at his age and with his track record before this season).

Also, for all of the concern over Skubal and Crochet’s innings, Fedde has only thrown something like 133 innings as a career high in a single season.

I’m not going to change your mind but ……

1.  Fedde threw 180 innings in Korea last year

2.  His previous walk rate in MLB was close to 4.  This year it’s 2.4.

3.  His splits show amazing consistency from month to month

4.  We have 106 innings of real data that shows this IS Fedde.

5. If I’m wrong we still won’t lose Basallo, Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad to find out.

6. If I’m right we got one of the best starters in baseball (2.4 FWAR to 2.5 for Burnes) for a reasonable price.

7.  That’s Mike Elias’ type of risk.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m not going to change your mind but ……

1.  Fedde threw 180 innings in Korea last year

2.  His previous walk rate in MLB was close to 4.  This year it’s 2.4.

3.  His splits show amazing consistency from month to month

4.  We have 106 innings of real data that shows this IS Fedde.

5. If I’m wrong we still won’t lose Basallo, Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad to find out.

6. If I’m right we got one of the best starters in baseball (2.4 FWAR to 2.5 for Burnes) for a reasonable price.

7.  That’s Mike Elias’ type of risk.

Everything that you say is well thought out/researched and logical.

My only contention would be to point 5. That’s not all we lose. We lose out on the opportunity to win a championship this season. That’s a big deal. Because we may not have Burnes next season and if Fedde were to turn back into a pumpkin our rotation will be in very bad shape this year.

Lastly, I don’t think all 3 of Holliday/Mayo/Basallo are necessary for us to win/seriously compete for a title. But I do believe having better pitching talent than we currently have is.

[Big Mac]

29 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m not going to change your mind but ……

1.  Fedde threw 180 innings in Korea last year

2.  His previous walk rate in MLB was close to 4.  This year it’s 2.4.

3.  His splits show amazing consistency from month to month

4.  We have 106 innings of real data that shows this IS Fedde.

5. If I’m wrong we still won’t lose Basallo, Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad to find out.

6. If I’m right we got one of the best starters in baseball (2.4 FWAR to 2.5 for Burnes) for a reasonable price.

7.  That’s Mike Elias’ type of risk.

I'm coming around to this idea more and these are all good points, but I still wouldn't give up a whole lot for him. 

His season so far this year is giving me a bit of Austin Voth 2022 vibes.  83 IP for us with a 3.04 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 7.8 K/9...then he went back to being the Austin Voth he always was.  Maybe it's that they both pitched for the Nationals for a bit at the beginning of their careers, but both careers prior to their "breakout" 2022 and 2024 seasons, respectively, along with their numbers in their "breakout" seasons are eerily similar.

I'm not dismissing the idea that he has figured something out, I'm just not willing to risk much betting that he has. 

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I'm coming around to this idea more and these are all good points, but I still wouldn't give up a whole lot for him. 

His season so far this year is giving me a bit of Austin Voth 2022 vibes.  83 IP for us with a 3.04 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 7.8 K/9...then he went back to being the Austin Voth he always was.  Maybe it's that they both pitched for the Nationals for a bit at the beginning of their careers, but both careers prior to their "breakout" 2022 and 2024 seasons, respectively, along with their numbers in their "breakout" seasons are eerily similar.

I'm not dismissing the idea that he has figured something out, I'm just not willing to risk much betting that he has. 

I guess there are some similarities.  One difference.  Voth completed 6 innings twice that year so he pitched well but wasn’t asked to do too much. Fedde has completed 6 innings 11 times this year and shows no signs of slowing down.