Crochet trade proposal

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I am proposing a Crochet trade proposal.  I really feel like the O's need another elite starter to have a good chance at winning the World Series.  I've decided giving up Basallo is not a good idea and he might be a superstar in the future (might not also).  I came up with a package centered around Kjerstad.

I don't think anyone else will like my package, but I think the only way to get an elite pitcher like Crochet w/o one of the big three is having someone like Kjertad and adding multiple other prospects. 

White Sox trade:  Crochet

Orioles trade:   Kjerstad,  #5 McDermott, #9  A. Estrada, #12 J. Baumeister.  Listed player's ranking on Tony's prospect ranking.  Kjerstad is no longer listed, he was #4 when he was still listed.  White Sox get a guy that will be a fixture in right field for years, a guy in McDermott that could be an elite bullpen guy or backend starter, a guy in Estrada that could play a decent 2B with major upside (people are going to kill me for including him), and Baumeister another guy who could be an elite bullpen guy. 

Let the hate flow.   

Would like to hear from the White Sox guy or possibly Orioles fan that could imagine if they were a White Sox GM.

Pretty close to my post from July 2.

“I don’t think I said exactly two top 100 guys but yes, I’d do something like Kjerstad, Norby, DeLeon for Crochet.   I may have mentioned a slight variation on that previously.   Crochet is one of the best, most talented pitchers in baseball.   A difference maker”

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

We aren't the only team with talented prospects that will be interested in Crochet. I personally believe it will take one of the top 3 prospects and Kjerstad/Cowser. It will not be cheap and they are looking to get a real headstart on a rebuild and this is their biggest chip.

The only teams in contention that has top-50 prospects to spare are the Twins, Brewers, and maybe the Mariners, and only the Twins have someone close to Holliday (Walker Jenkins at 5 overall.)  Considering the Yankees are reportedly hesitant to give up their 2nd best prospect, who's not even a top-50 guy, for Crochet, that tells you a lot about how most teams value their prospects.   

 

The O's are in an absurd position because of this.  We can center a trade package around Kjerstad and it will beat just about every other contender's best possible offers while only marginally affecting the big club because of the depth behind.

[Filmstudy]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the WS say no.

I hope the Orioles would not offer this much.

Specifically, I think years of team control for young pitchers need to be deeply discounted beyond the current season because of the substantial injury risk and duration of such injuries.

Trading Kjerstad alone for Crochet would be an enormous risk and it could hurt the team this season, let alone the next 6-7.  That said, it might make sense for the Orioles to do it if they believe it increases the WS chance significantly.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I hope the Orioles would not offer this much.

Specifically, I think years of team control for young pitchers need to be deeply discounted beyond the current season because of the substantial injury risk and duration of such injuries.

Trading Kjerstad alone for Crochet would be an enormous risk and it could hurt the team this season, let alone the next 6-7.  That said, it might make sense for the Orioles to do it if they believe it increases the WS chance significantly.

In talking to Os fans and fans of other teams, I think a lot of people completely overlook the importance of these cheap, cost controlled years and just how much that’s worth to teams.

I might consider this deal for Crochet because the reward is so high, even if it costs Kjerstad BUT it’s a huge risk and one that isn’t some slam dunk thought as some make it out to be.

[Filmstudy]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

We aren't the only team with talented prospects that will be interested in Crochet. I personally believe it will take one of the top 3 prospects and Kjerstad/Cowser. It will not be cheap and they are looking to get a real headstart on a rebuild and this is their biggest chip.

Are you saying one of Holliday/Mayo/Basallo plus either Kjerstad or Cowser?

To me, that is absurdly more than the value of Crochet with any reasonable discounting of future years.  If he's traded this season, the White Sox won't get nearly that sort of return and in part because the Orioles are about the only team that can put a package like that together without burning their farm system to the ground.

[Filmstudy]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

In talking to Os fans and fans of other teams, I think a lot of people completely overlook the importance of these cheap, cost controlled years and just how much that’s worth to teams.

I might consider this deal for Crochet because the reward is so high, even if it costs Kjerstad BUT it’s a huge risk and one that isn’t some slam dunk thought as some make it out to be.

You mean they tend to be overlooked for the pitcher or for the position player?

[OriolesMagic83]

38 minutes ago, OsBeavs said:

How about Justin Steele? That would be my target.

Steele would be a good target but I would be surprised if the Cubs are looking to trade him.  Looks like he still has 2 1/2 years of control.  Price would be very steep like Crochet.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the WS say no.

The guys on their board would eat him alive

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

You mean they tend to be overlooked for the pitcher or for the position player?

Just in general.  These guys are major assets.

Ken, you know this as well as anyone. It’s like the really good QB on a rookie deal. It’s the best asset in sports. The elite talent giving you monster surplus value means everything. 
 

People just get so cavalier trading those guys away. There is a reason elite talents don’t usually get traded.  They are rare.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

The guys on their board would eat him alive

No, they would make stupid remarks, put very little knowledge behind them and just be douchey.  

[Filmstudy]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Just in general.  These guys are major assets.

Ken, you know this as well as anyone. It’s like the really good QB on a rookie deal. It’s the best asset in sports. The elite talent giving you monster surplus value means everything. 
 

People just get so cavalier trading those guys away. There is a reason elite talents don’t usually get traded.  They are rare.

I certainly agree, but the point I've been making is that controllable years for position players are far more valuable than controllable years for pitchers.  The position players do not carry anywhere near the same injury risk.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I certainly agree, but the point I've been making is that controllable years for position players are far more valuable than controllable years for pitchers.  The position players do not carry anywhere near the same injury risk.

So that would mean that position players get more lucrative free agent deals?

Quote

Top 10 free-agent contracts by average annual value

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: $70 million (2024-33)

2t. Max Scherzer, Mets: $43,333,333 (2022-24)

2t. Justin Verlander, Mets: $43,333,333 (2023-24)

4. Aaron Judge, Yankees: $40 million (2023-31)

5. Jacob deGrom, Rangers: $37 million (2023-27)

6. Gerrit Cole, Yankees: $36 million (2020-28)

7t. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: $35 million (2020-26)

7t. Anthony Rendon, Angels: $35 million (2020-26)

9. Zack Greinke, D-backs: $34,416,666 (2016-21)

10. Trevor Bauer, Dodgers: $34 million (2021-23)

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I certainly agree, but the point I've been making is that controllable years for position players are far more valuable than controllable years for pitchers.  The position players do not carry anywhere near the same injury risk.

I agree with you. This is a big reason why I’m more than happy with the go big on position player aspect of things in the draft.

[Malike]

23 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

Are you saying one of Holliday/Mayo/Basallo plus either Kjerstad or Cowser?

To me, that is absurdly more than the value of Crochet with any reasonable discounting of future years.  If he's traded this season, the White Sox won't get nearly that sort of return and in part because the Orioles are about the only team that can put a package like that together without burning their farm system to the ground.

Yes, he's going to command a top 100 prospect, we have 3 of them and he's going to command a ML ready guy with a lot of control, we have a lot of those.

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, Malike said:

We aren't the only team with talented prospects that will be interested in Crochet. I personally believe it will take one of the top 3 prospects and Kjerstad/Cowser. It will not be cheap and they are looking to get a real headstart on a rebuild and this is their biggest chip.

Then no chance that I would want to pay that price.  He has had basically one good half.