Grade the Eflin Trade

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The difference is irrelevant.

By the criteria you set for judging trades (total WAR produced during the team control period), both the Burnes and Rogers deals are most likely going to be major losses for the Orioles.

Irrelevant LOL

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Irrelevant LOL

The total WAR idea is irrelevant. You’d have to come up with some sort of weighted total war. Burnes and Eflin performed well in August and September. And the playoffs. Everything we could’ve asked for. 

[waroriole]

22 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The difference is irrelevant.

By the criteria you set for judging trades (total WAR produced during the team control period), both the Burnes and Rogers deals are most likely going to be major losses for the Orioles.

The Burnes deal is a loss for the team. I don’t see how you could look at it any other way. It doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make the trade, but it’s a loss. Just like trading EdRod for Andrew Miller in 2014. It’s a move you make, but it’s a loss. 
 

The Rogers trade is still TBD. As others have said, Norby isn’t a defender and a mediocre hitter. He may not have 600 more ABs in MLB. Rogers may come back to provide some value. It’s most likely both are less than 2 wins over their career. 

[Roll Tide]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The total WAR idea is irrelevant. You’d have to come up with some sort of weighted total war. Burnes and Eflin performed well in August and September. And the playoffs. Everything we could’ve asked for. 

Well …WAR wasn’t the only thing I use. It was minimized to that by the other poster. I was merely stating the return we got/get from Rogers won’t come close to what I believe Norby will be worth in his career. I didn’t look at Burnes that way… I knew we were grabbing a much needed ace. I hope/hoped that we would sign him long term. He’s been exposed to the team, players, etc which is hopefully a positive. If it’s close hopefully he chooses Baltimore. I think that’s worth the stretch. Ortiz was a player we had to move to obtain that value and is turning out to be a good player for the Brewers. I’d say it was a good trade for both sides. The Roger’s trade s far is a complete bust for us.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Well …WAR wasn’t the only thing I use. It was minimized to that by the other poster. I was merely stating the return we got/get from Rogers won’t come close to what I believe Norby will be worth in his career. I didn’t look at Burnes that way… I knew we were grabbing a much needed ace. I hope/hoped that we would sign him long term. He’s been exposed to the team, players, etc which is hopefully a positive. If it’s close hopefully he chooses Baltimore. I think that’s worth the stretch. Ortiz was a player we had to move to obtain that value and is turning out to be a good player for the Brewers. I’d say it was a good trade for both sides. The Roger’s trade s far is a complete bust for us.

I hear you on the Rogers trade, but let's say that we still have Norby and Stowers right now, what would we do with them.  We got what we could for them.  

Rogers at least has an option for 2025 and is basically the new Cole Irvin.  I think  that Rogers and Eloy were Elias' dart throws to try and hit on a player we could quickly fix.  

Rogers is going to be all conjecture until we see him in ST.  Who knows?  I hope we rework him over the offseason.  All in all, I'm happy with the deadline moves.  

Eflin - buoyed the staff down the stretch and gave us a "competitive/good" postseason start.

Dominguez - settled down the back end of the pen and gave us playoff scoreless inning.

Soto - He showed flashes during that scoreless streak in low leverage outings and a playoff appearance.  We don't have to bring him back for that trade to be a win-win.

Slater - He had a .700+ OPS with us vs LHP.  He filled the Hays role when Hays might have wanted out.  Elias did pretty well there. 

Eloy - a shot in the dark, and I believe he was an insurance policy because Mounty was banged up.   

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I hear you on the Rogers trade, but let's say that we still have Norby and Stowers right now, what would we do with them.  We got what we could for them.  

Rogers at least has an option for 2025 and is basically the new Cole Irvin.  I think  that Rogers and Eloy were Elias' dart throws to try and hit on a player we could quickly fix.  

Rogers is going to be all conjecture until we see him in ST.  Who knows?  I hope we rework him over the offseason.  All in all, I'm happy with the deadline moves.  

Eflin - buoyed the staff down the stretch and gave us a "competitive/good" postseason start.

Dominguez - settled down the back end of the pen and gave us playoff scoreless inning.

Soto - He showed flashes during that scoreless streak in low leverage outings and a playoff appearance.  We don't have to bring him back for that trade to be a win-win.

Slater - He had a .700+ OPS with us vs LHP.  He filled the Hays role when Hays might have wanted out.  Elias did pretty well there. 

Eloy - a shot in the dark, and I believe he was an insurance policy because Mounty was banged up.   

Thinking of Soto/Dominguez here....

When Bautista comes back, a Dominguez/Soto/Coulombe/Cano combined with him looks like a pretty formidable bullpen.   If you throw someone like McDermott in it as a guy who can throw a couple of innings, it could be very, very good.

[Chromehill]

Dominguez has a $8 million dollar option for 2025.  Soto was paid $5 million in 2024 and is arbitration eligible.  Keeping both of them will cost $14 million in 2025.   Can that $14 million be better used to strengthen the team?

[Roll Tide]

20 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I hear you on the Rogers trade, but let's say that we still have Norby and Stowers right now, what would we do with them.  We got what we could for them.  

Rogers at least has an option for 2025 and is basically the new Cole Irvin.  I think  that Rogers and Eloy were Elias' dart throws to try and hit on a player we could quickly fix.  

Rogers is going to be all conjecture until we see him in ST.  Who knows?  I hope we rework him over the offseason.  All in all, I'm happy with the deadline moves.  

Eflin - buoyed the staff down the stretch and gave us a "competitive/good" postseason start.

Dominguez - settled down the back end of the pen and gave us playoff scoreless inning.

Soto - He showed flashes during that scoreless streak in low leverage outings and a playoff appearance.  We don't have to bring him back for that trade to be a win-win.

Slater - He had a .700+ OPS with us vs LHP.  He filled the Hays role when Hays might have wanted out.  Elias did pretty well there. 

Eloy - a shot in the dark, and I believe he was an insurance policy because Mounty was banged up.   

Did we ? You can’t possibly know that. Apparently, Elias got a player he thought he could fix. 

Sorry but I just don’t think Rogers is as good as Irvin with his diminished stuff. I think he’s essentially a throw away.

It would be wise to extend Eflin now while we still can. That way the resources used to get him can actually provide some long term value.

Dominguez was an ok pickup…I don’t hate the deal. Problem is we needed a closer and he’s isn’t that. Thankfully Bautista is returning and will push him down the depth chart a slot or two.

Soto ….Agreed, you bring him back if you can’t find a better option. I expect them to keep him. Otherwise, giving up Seth Johnson with our minors pitching quality shortage looks like a bad decision 

Eloy didn’t cost much …. My general thought is pick ups like him didn’t matter beyond how you grade those acquisitions on a team that “Really Wanted to Win”. I question this because none of the guys that we picked up where having good seasons elsewhere. My thoughts are the same for Rivera …. He was a 563 OPS in Miami but got hot here and was a .948 here. His career OPS is .676 so his stint here is probably not repeatable. His projected arb number is 1.4 million so they likely keep him around as a piece and he’s young enough that maybe the change in scenery caused the light to come on.

 

By the way … here’s a piece from Roch about sone of these guys.

 

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/taking-another-look-at-orioles-roster-decisions

 

[waroriole]

21 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Eloy - a shot in the dark, and I believe he was an insurance policy because Mounty was banged up.   

That’s a pretty expensive shot in the dark. 3M, plus the rest of his salary last year, to see if a clearly finished player still has something as an insurance policy. I’d just move that money over to next year. You’d get much better use of it. 
 

The problem is, I don’t think Elias thought it was a shot in the dark. And that makes me question his scouting at the ML level. The Orioles aren’t wealthy enough to throw 5M and see if there’s a 10% of fixing them. It’s either bad talent evaluation or bad asset management. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

On 10/16/2024 at 5:15 PM, Roll Tide said:

Irrelevant LOL

By the criteria that you yourself chose, yes. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

By the criteria that you yourself chose, yes. 

See my other posts…. We needed an ACE, We paid the asking price which by all accounts was reasonable ( some writers thought it was a bargain). We have a leg up in signing him to a new contract based on a fact that he’s pitched here and likes the guys. That doesn’t get you a discount but I think this could swing our way if we are serious about bringing him back. And in the game likely $33-$35 million for 6 years. 
 

If we are and he does sign here you’ve won. If not that’s a decision made by Rubbenstein and Elias. Further, if we didn’t have all of the injuries the second half and post season might’ve went totally different. 
 

As for Rogers …. well there is no easy way to say it. HE SUCKS….. He was bad aftr the trade, bad after his demotion to AAA. We have another year of control. But who cares.. Irvin produced better and didn’t cost Norby. I don’t much care about losing Stowers but think we could’ve received just as much by a DFA and trade. 

[Aristotelian]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

See my other posts…. We needed an ACE, We paid the asking price which by all accounts was reasonable ( some writers thought it was a bargain). We have a leg up in signing him to a new contract based on a fact that he’s pitched here and likes the guys. That doesn’t get you a discount but I think this could swing our way if we are serious about bringing him back. And in the game likely $33-$35 million for 6 years. 
 

If we are and he does sign here you’ve won. If not that’s a decision made by Rubbenstein and Elias. Further, if we didn’t have all of the injuries the second half and post season might’ve went totally different. 
 

As for Rogers …. well there is no easy way to say it. HE SUCKS….. He was bad aftr the trade, bad after his demotion to AAA. We have another year of control. But who cares.. Irvin produced better and didn’t cost Norby. I don’t much care about losing Stowers but think we could’ve received just as much by a DFA and trade. 

I would think his relationship with the ownership and GM will be more decisive than the players. That said, if he enjoyed his experience here that might give us a very slight edge. Currently the betting markets have us at #2 behind the Mets, but with a bunch of suitors. 

It is way too early to give up on Rogers based on four starts. He has options and Elias paid a decent price to get him. I think you are forgetting how bad Irvin was, but regardless he is gone and Rogers is here.