O's acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from Marlins

[Sports Guy]

 

[Pushmonkey]

1 minute ago, Os4days said:

I don’t understand some of you guys … the point of having a great farm system is to add to the big league team or using it for trading for missing pieces. Isn’t it? To me Norby hasn’t shown much more overall than Joey Ortiz who many on here didn’t want to see go. If we didn’t have JH, I could kind of understand but second base is an easy position to replenish. Stowers was never gonna get playing time here.

I get that you wanted a better pitcher than Rogers but we don’t know the asking price from some of these teams. Right now very few teams are looking to trade IMO so guys like Rogers are few and far between, a 26 year old who has pitched over 300 innings and under control for a few years is pricey. Look at what the Marlins are asking for Scott, a rental. 

JH is blocked by Vavra. 

[PeteCanes]

This is what viable starting pitchers cost.  There really aren’t that many of them.  

[Just Regular]

For sure Trevor Rogers is a Rohrschach test if you believe soft tissue injuries are enough to permanently rob a top tier talent.

Rogers does have some of the same kinds of 2024 workload monitoring scenarios affecting Garrett Crochet.

18 and 105 for Rogers in 2023 and 2024 so far; Crochet's numbers are 12 and 114 there.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

Nobody available is worth giving up Holliday, Basallo or Mayo. 
 

I have no problem with what Elias did. He traded 2 players (who have potential) that are expendable. We’ll see how Rogers performs.

I don't either.

Perfectly reasonable move.

Just like Flaherty was last season.

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He’s 26

An interesting point of comparison. At 24, Grayson just placed 46th on Fangraphs' top 50 trade value rankings.

At 23, Rogers placed 41st. At 24 he was an honorable mention. Not on the list since as his performance waned. 

[RVAOsFan]

6 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I did not downvote you, but I can see why some may have. You are seemingly complaining about trading Joey Ortiz, when the O's brought in arguably the best pitcher in the AL this year in Corbin Burnes.  As for Norby and Ortiz both, they could certainly be starting infielders in the All-Star game.  They could also be below-average starters and not last in the league for another 5 years.  It was a hyperbolic post blowing Ortiz and Norby's value out of the water while way underestimating what the O's got for them (especially Burnes). 

Wasn't my intent, thanks for the feedback.

[Go_Os]

22 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

If Rogers had upside, I'd agree. But he doesn't.

And height doesn't matter one iota. Not sure why that was brought up. 

 

He's 26 and in 2021 he struck out 155 in 133 innings (2.55 ERA , 1.15 WHIP).  That is his upside and he is entering the prime of his career.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

You're missing my point. It's not even preseason rankings. I'm just not high on either of those guys, and the fact that the Yankees got a controllable reliever (2.5 years) and didn't have to give anybody significant is a savvy trade. The Yankees have far better prospects than they gave up.

Here are my thoughts:

• Cowles is 24. Very possible he's a late bloomer, but he's putting up so-so numbers at AA.
• Neely is an excellent bullpen arm, but as I mentioned before there are *better arms* in the Yankees system, and it speaks volumes to me that the Yankees would rather give those innings to Leiter than Neely. Yes, Neely has very high upside, but the point is they rather go for the definite + years of control rather than the unknown of a minor league bullpen arm

What I'm trying to convey here is that if the O's gave up similar type of prospects for Leiter, I'd be elated. 

If a 141 wRC+ is so-so then you have some really really high expectations. 

[mall-O-cup]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

It's not just this year.   He wasn't exactly great in 2022 either.   2023 was a washout year due to injuries.

Seems like you are the one looking at the small recent sample size of 9 starts and considering it more important than the 39 previosu starts from Apr 2022 to June 2024.

The reality here is that this guy is a back end starter who averages 5.0 IP per start. If we are able to get more out of him it will be a plus.

This move doesn't really move me.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Go_Os said:

 

He's 26 and in 2021 he struck out 155 in 133 innings (2.55 ERA , 1.15 WHIP).  That is his upside and he is entering the prime of his career.

How many guys did well in 2021 and are out of the majors in 2024?

That's a lifetime ago in professional sports.

This trade isn't betting on a return to 2021.

[bluedog]

8 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Or just use the median if you have outliers...

I really wish we had median earned runs per nine innings. Look at the pitcher's season in consecutive nine-inning chunks and take the median of those chunks.

That's a really good idea for a stat.

[Go_Os]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many guys did well in 2021 and are out of the majors in 2024?

That's a lifetime ago in professional sports.

This trade isn't betting on a return to 2021.

I was addressing the topic of "upside"

 

The guy is still young and healthy, and has pitched well for a few months.

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, Go_Os said:

 

He's 26 and in 2021 he struck out 155 in 133 innings (2.55 ERA , 1.15 WHIP).  That is his upside and he is entering the prime of his career.

I'd agree there was upside if there was a glimmer that he can regain the few MPH he's lost off his fastball. He had a bunch of injuries in 2023, so not sure if they're lingering or had an effect on his performance in the early part of 2024. Maybe it was. Maybe I'm talking myself into thinking there's some upside here. I'm worried he's Cole Irvin but with a worse walk rate. 

[scbalt52]

Boy, there are a lot of people sharing Baseball Savant screenshots on Twitter/x, that have NEVER visited that site before