Offer Anthony Santander 3 year 60 million contract

[eddie83]

Issue isn’t whether we can replace his numbers it’s whether he will duplicate it. 
 

I like the guy a ton. I would not be angry if he is back but I’m not getting into a bidding war for him. Give him QO and see how market plays out. Who knows if a trade opens up a return either. 

[TommyPickles]

Fielding Bible rated Santander as an above average defensive first baseman in 71 innings there last season...

I didn't want to resign him before this season started, now I think they should at least try. Let's say the O's lose in the WS this year. Its hard to imagine the offense not taking a step back in 2025 without him. Might have to slightly overpay (don't go crazy) to strike while the iron is hot.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

Personally, I think he will get more gears than three from somebody.  Maybe slightly less AAV.  
 

I already think he is slowing down in the OF although his gait looked a little off to me when I was at the game last week.  Maybe he is nursing something. He probably ends up at 1B in the next few years.  

Having a switch hitting power guy is such a luxury though when making that lineup card out.  

 

[Morgan423]

3 hours ago, Motorhead said:

Option C. 

Santander walking would save plenty of money. Paying him tens of millions just to hit home runs is ridiculous. His .248 AVG and.314 OBP are weak and he was an "all-star"? Santander is a lifetime .248 hitter. Is that worth $20 million/year? I think not...

Sign Burnes to an extension or it becomes a wasted trade (Elias has proved he has mastered that negative aspect). 

Just a friendly, helpful advice regarding posting here.  Please do not take this fully as criticism...  I'm just trying to help you out.

This place sees its share of uneducated posters, like any fan forum does.  But it's also populated by some of the most knowledgeable baseball fans I've ever personally known.  My role on this board is generally to bring a little levity to counterbalance some of the seriousness, but when I do post serious opinions, I don't just pull them out of nowhere.

I put them up for specific reasons when warranted, with some good evidence behind my viewpoint.  I've virtually hung out with the folks on this board for a decade and a half, and I respect them too much to do waste their time doing otherwise.

And let me tell you, not a single soul here is going to take someone seriously on this board if they frequently do stuff like start bad-take reaction threads, or if they consistently do things like cite a player's batting average as the all-important, be-all-end-all offensive metric.  It makes one look like a three-year-old playing with Legos, while the adults in the room are building advanced rocket propulsion systems. 

My point is, I know everyone wants to have their views taken seriously, and to have their views respected on the board (otherwise, why would they even be here, posting them?).  Folks should just keep an eye on and understand where they are, and the level of game they should step up to, in order to have the best experience possible. 

Many of the folks here are very smart, and very serious.  They aren't playing whiffle ball, and they never will be.  

[Sports Guy]

I think if we lost him, we will barely know he’s gone next year.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think if we lost him, we will barely know he’s gone next year.

I think this is the most succinct way to describe the unreconcilable divide on this topic. Either you believe his offense can be replaced, or you don't. 

Personally, I don't have much confidence at all that Kjerstad can replicate what Santander is doing. Especially while still learning the pitchers. Tony knows all the opponents, he knows how guys will try to attack him, and he's got a low heart rate. Sure he doesn't walk a lot (heads up: neither will Kjerstad or Mayo), but he can extend ABs with foul balls and has tough ABs. 

But I totally understand those that believe in Kjerstad and/or that Santander is not likely to repeat this career year - I'm not saying it's a bad take or anything. 

Edited August 2 by interloper

[Baltimorecuse]

The difference between a .240 hitter and 300 hitter is six hits in 100 at bats.  Show me slugging percentage and RBIs (clutch hitting) and that's where value lies.  

[Pickles]

41 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think this is the most succinct way to describe the unreconcilable divide on this topic. Either you believe his offense can be replaced, or you don't. 

Personally, I don't have much confidence at all that Kjerstad can replicate what Santander is doing. Especially while still learning the pitchers. Tony knows all the opponents, he knows how guys will try to attack him, and he's got a low heart rate. Sure he doesn't walk a lot (heads up: neither will Kjerstad or Mayo), but he can extend ABs with foul balls and has tough ABs. 

But I totally understand those that believe in Kjerstad and/or that Santander is not likely to repeat this career year - I'm not saying it's a bad take or anything. 

I think the "career year" talk is pretty silly.

If he was having the exact same year this year he'd had the last two, the conversation wouldn't be any different in terms of dollars and years.

The contract he will be offered will be based on his entire body of work, not just what he's done this year, which while technically a career year, is not out of line with his prior production.

 

[webbrick2010]

Interesting debate, 

People (and advanced metrics) completel6 downplay the value of HR's and RBI's

I think he will be very difficult to replace, and with our projected rotation for next year we will need a top 5 offense.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I think this is the most succinct way to describe the unreconcilable divide on this topic. Either you believe his offense can be replaced, or you don't. 

Personally, I don't have much confidence at all that Kjerstad can replicate what Santander is doing. Especially while still learning the pitchers. Tony knows all the opponents, he knows how guys will try to attack him, and he's got a low heart rate. Sure he doesn't walk a lot (heads up: neither will Kjerstad or Mayo), but he can extend ABs with foul balls and has tough ABs. 

But I totally understand those that believe in Kjerstad and/or that Santander is not likely to repeat this career year - I'm not saying it's a bad take or anything. 

I don’t get why people have this mindset. Why does his production have to be directly matched? You guys act like there is one way to build a team. 
 

I will always go back to the Pujols/Cardinals example. They let him go and made playoffs the next year.  You can EASILY withstand losing Santander and have as good or better team. 
 

You could have a worse offense but better pitching and defense and end up a better team overall.  How you allocate your resources matters. The Os, a team filled with tons of young cheap players, have a lot of ways to allocate resources in so many ways and acting like AS is some lynchpin to the whole operation is silly. 
 

He’s a good player to have, seemingly well liked and respected and obviously he has very good power.

He’s also not a profile that tends to age well. Doesn’t mean he won’t buck that trend but the trend exists for a reason..because that’s what 100 years worth of data tells you. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

If we were discussing whether to re-sign a race horse in his walk year, then this might prove helpful. 
So your intuition about Santander's forthcoming five-year trajectory should be trusted because the "eye test" rarely let you down when evaluating whether Equine Bee was a better long-term bet than Grandpa's Old Jalopy? 

I trust my judgement.  So yes. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 hours ago, OriolesUpAndDowns said:

Personally, I think he will get more gears than three from somebody.  Maybe slightly less AAV.  
 

I already think he is slowing down in the OF although his gait looked a little off to me when I was at the game last week.  Maybe he is nursing something. He probably ends up at 1B in the next few years.  

Having a switch hitting power guy is such a luxury though when making that lineup card out.  

 

Agree.  Ala Kenny Singleton and Eddie Murray. 

[Frobby]

Honkus Wagner: Do you see Santander getting a new deal with the O’s? if not, would a ballpark of 3yr/$60 mil be about right?

 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually suggests 3/60 before the season!

 Dan Szymborski: So it would be more now. Hang on

 Dan Szymborski: well, 3/59

 Dan Szymborski: before the season

* * *
Dan Szymborski: Oh, ZiPS suggests 4/105 on Santander

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-8-15-24/

[OriolesMagic83]

On 8/2/2024 at 10:19 AM, Sports Guy said:

I think if we lost him, we will barely know he’s gone next year.

The O's might miss him in the field as much as they miss him at bat if they replace him with Kjerstad.  Santander has been very steady in RF and pretty much makes any makes any makeable plays and has even made some highlight reel plays.  Kjerstad has turned what looked like sure outs into extra base hits although I don't think they went down as errors because he got such bad reads. 

[OriolesMagic83]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honkus Wagner: Do you see Santander getting a new deal with the O’s? if not, would a ballpark of 3yr/$60 mil be about right?

 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually suggests 3/60 before the season!

 Dan Szymborski: So it would be more now. Hang on

 Dan Szymborski: well, 3/59

 Dan Szymborski: before the season

* * *
Dan Szymborski: Oh, ZiPS suggests 4/105 on Santander

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-8-15-24/

Oh well, no way are the O's paying that.  Santander forever an Oriole as he plays for the Yankees or Giants.