Trevor Rogers 2024

[PeregrineT]

Positive, with the injury situation we desperately need one of the new starters to come in and just play well for a few starts.  Help this team get on a bit of a run and ease the starter worries for at least a few weeks.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Velo was about the same, higher on the sinker but lower on the 4 seamer. He definitely has an issue of starting off the game with better velo and then a lot more 89-90 in the later innings, that’s been the case both starts.

But I thought the command was much better, they made a big deal out of him needing to throw up and in to righties on the broadcast and he did that well. 

A lot more changeups and fewer sliders, although that could be a byproduct of the Jays having such a righty heavy lineup. Anecdotally it seemed when he was throwing the slider to righties, he was backdooring it off the plate outside trying to get called strikes, which is worse for whiffs but a much safer location than going down and in where it could leak back over the plate and get hammered.

IMO his biggest issue is he’s not going to get many whiffs throwing so many sinkers. I expected more 4 seamers in the mix. Cutting down the sliders and replacing with more changeups is good, and the changeup can get whiffs, but 36% sinkers and 21% four seamers generated only 3 whiffs - and only 1 on the sinker. Going to be very hard to get strikeouts unless he throws even more changeups and/or shifts to more 4 seamers over sinkers. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Velo was about the same, higher on the sinker but lower on the 4 seamer. He definitely has an issue of starting off the game with better velo and then a lot more 89-90 in the later innings, that’s been the case both starts.

But I thought the command was much better, they made a big deal out of him needing to throw up and in to righties on the broadcast and he did that well. 

A lot more changeups and fewer sliders, although that could be a byproduct of the Jays having such a righty heavy lineup. Anecdotally it seemed when he was throwing the slider to righties, he was backdooring it off the plate outside trying to get called strikes, which is worse for whiffs but a much safer location than going down and in where it could leak back over the plate and get hammered.

IMO his biggest issue is he’s not going to get many whiffs throwing so many sinkers. I expected more 4 seamers in the mix. Cutting down the sliders and replacing with more changeups is good, and the changeup can get whiffs, but 36% sinkers and 21% four seamers generated only 3 whiffs - and only 1 on the sinker. Going to be very hard to get strikeouts unless he throws even more changeups and/or shifts to more 4 seamers over sinkers. 

His lack of a got to whiff pitch concerns me. I mentioned in the game thread that he reminded me of Bruce Zimmerman a bit though Zimmerman has a better slider and worse changeup. But they both throw about the same with the same command. 

There is no way I'd trust him pitching against a good lineup with the stuff we've seen from him since being acquired. Obviously with Grayson going down, his role is more highlighted now, but it's going to be hard to manage a bullpen with two guys in the rotation that are really one time through the order guys.

[CaptainRedbeard]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

His lack of a got to whiff pitch concerns me. I mentioned in the game thread that he reminded me of Bruce Zimmerman a bit though Zimmerman has a better slider and worse changeup. But they both throw about the same with the same command. 

There is no way I'd trust him pitching against a good lineup with the stuff we've seen from him since being acquired. Obviously with Grayson going down, his role is more highlighted now, but it's going to be hard to manage a bullpen with two guys in the rotation that are really one time through the order guys.

I think Rogers’ fastballs are still much better than Zimmerman’s (even though Rogers’ are subpar right now - Zimmerman’s are just really bad). That makes a big difference. But I agree Rogers’ upside is really limited until they figure out how to get more velo/usage of the 4 seamer for whiffs and/or figure out how to fix the slider, or turn it into a cutter or sweeper or curve or just anything that he can use against righties for whiffs. 

[Just Regular]

Inching towards 2-seams feels a bit like a "Framberization" dial turn.

On the SP5 Pass/Fail of was it 5 innings and 3 runs, give him a gold star.

A Coby Mayo 3B error in inning 1 just kind of cliche as the new roster starts cooking together.

[Fiver6565]

Can someone who likes to analyze such things tell me how Rogers is any different than Povich other than experience?  I see mediocre velo and a lot of nibbling on the outside against right handed batters. 
 

I know Povich has the slow curve which I didn’t see from Rogers, but is there any reason to believe Rogers will be any more effective than Povich?

[ChosenOne21]

3 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Can someone who likes to analyze such things tell me how Rogers is any different than Povich other than experience?  I see mediocre velo and a lot of nibbling on the outside against right handed batters. 
 

I know Povich has the slow curve which I didn’t see from Rogers, but is there any reason to believe Rogers will be any more effective than Povich?

I would say Rogers has much better command/control than Povich.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I would say Rogers has much better command/control than Povich.

I would say "much better" is quite a stretch.

[ChosenOne21]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I would say "much better" is quite a stretch.

"Much better" is obviously subjective, but Povich is walking around 1.5 more batters per nine innings than Rogers this year, and around 2 more for MLB career. That's a pretty big difference.

[Just Regular]

10 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Can someone who likes to analyze such things tell me how Rogers is any different than Povich other than experience?  I see mediocre velo and a lot of nibbling on the outside against right handed batters. 
 

I know Povich has the slow curve which I didn’t see from Rogers, but is there any reason to believe Rogers will be any more effective than Povich?

No scouting director has ever compared Povich to a cross between Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte.    Rogers' career to date is for sure one where top-tier molding clay becomes a very ordinary looking MLB pitcher, but I think "scout Elias" saw something he liked well enough to win an open competition, not usually his move.

I'm here to support the @Moose MilliganT-Ro(we) effort.    The corporation should fashion a bighorn sheep skin warmup jacket he can enter the game with.    Elias just needs to get him pitching like David Price to polish off the branded material.

[Fiver6565]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

No scouting director has ever compared Povich to a cross between Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte.    Rogers' career to date is for sure one where top-tier molding clay becomes a very ordinary looking MLB pitcher, but I think "scout Elias" saw something he liked well enough to win an open competition, not usually his move.

I'm here to support the @Moose MilliganT-Ro(we) effort.    The corporation should fashion a bighorn sheep skin warmup jacket he can enter the game with.    Elias just needs to get him pitching like David Price to polish off the branded material.

I don’t know at what point of his career he was compared to either of the pitchers you named but it clearly wasn’t recently. 

I’ll buy better control, that’s a good point. But he still seems a lot more like Povich than Pettite, and being anywhere near a Johnson comp is just laughable. 
 

Not saying he can’t be serviceable, just that my confidence watching him isn’t much higher than watching Povich, which isn’t great. 

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I don’t know at what point of his career he was compared to either of the pitchers you named but it clearly wasn’t recently.

True.   It was something a giddy (and probably now unemployed) Marlins official said hyping a draftee soon after using a 1st rounder on a high school pitcher.

Sigbot's move is to wait and see if that character is even in organized baseball 7 years later.

[Rbiggs2525]

12 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I would say "much better" is quite a stretch.

Not a stretch at all. His misses are around the zone. He hits the corners. Povich has big location misses then has to give in to batters. 
 

Anyway I take that start as a positive step. Ben mentioned he is making some mechanical changes to get back to 2021 form. He’s faced two lineups that do not strikeout and are built to face LHP. Toronto’s top 3 hitters are all RHH and Cleveland has 4 guys Fry, Thomas, Ramirez, and Noel who crush LHP. Put him in Camden Yards with Cowser in LF and I think he becomes a better pitcher. 

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Can someone who likes to analyze such things tell me how Rogers is any different than Povich other than experience?  I see mediocre velo and a lot of nibbling on the outside against right handed batters. 
 

I know Povich has the slow curve which I didn’t see from Rogers, but is there any reason to believe Rogers will be any more effective than Povich?

Any reason you are comparing the two, other than that they are left handed? Rogers has more of a track record so he has a much higher floor than Povich. Kinda hard to tell much from their minors resumes since Rogers essentially skipped AAA, but Rogers had a much lower BB rate adding up to a higher K/BB even though he got lower K's. If Povich can turn his stuff into K's at the MLB level, Rogers might be the more effective overall pitcher.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Put him in Camden Yards with Cowser in LF and I think he becomes a better pitcher. 

Also make the Nationals (MLB low 86 HR on the season) the opponent.

Drew French is going to tell him something other than pump them in cookies and see if anyone can beat Walltimore in the upcoming 5 days....I think.