Fix the bullpen 2025

[Warehouse]

Below is how I see the current state. I don’t expect Elias to favor big bucks / long term contracts for proven high leverage relievers, especially when that further limits our pen flexibility. Taking a few reclamation shots is more likely IMO. Injuries could change that calculus though.

 

Starters

1. Eflin

2. GRod - option

3. FA/Trade

4. Kremer - option 

5a. Big Al

5b. Rogers - option

 

Relievers

Cl: Bautista - option 

HL: Dominguez

HL: Coulombe

HL: Cano - option 

MR: Akin - option

MR: Perez

MR: Webb

MR: Burch Smith

 

That’s 14 pitchers for 13 spots, with the odds of all 14 being healthy for opening day practically nil.

 

Back in late Summer - T Wells - option

 

Out of options - Spring Training competition/ outright assignment waivers

- Matt Bowman

- Bryan Baker

- Nick Vespi

 

Has options but possible non-tender - Dillon Tate

 

AAA depth with options 

- Povich

- McDermott

- Young

- Selby

 

Long shot minors depth 

- Noah Denoyer

- Cameron Weston

- Trace Bright

- Peter van Loon

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Even a fixed Gregory Soto is no better than Akin, Perez, or Coulombe.   None of those guys are going to cost 7M next year.   Maybe they pick up his option but I think it would be a poor decision.   Not a terrible decision.   Just not money well spent.

If I read baseball reference correctly, Soto is making 5 million this year with one more arbitration year in 2025.

Even if he doesn’t get a raise at all, which is doubtful, $5 million would be a waste.

However, they will probably give him a contract and at least carry him into spring training.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Warehouse said:

Below is how I see the current state. I don’t expect Elias to favor big bucks / long term contracts for proven high leverage relievers, especially when that further limits our pen flexibility. Taking a few reclamation shots is more likely IMO. Injuries could change that calculus though.

 

Starters

1. Eflin

2. GRod - option

3. FA/Trade

4. Kremer - option 

5a. Big Al

5b. Rogers - option

 

Relievers

Cl: Bautista - option 

HL: Dominguez

HL: Coulombe

HL: Cano - option 

MR: Akin - option

MR: Perez

MR: Webb

MR: Burch Smith

 

That’s 14 pitchers for 13 spots, with the odds of all 14 being healthy for opening day practically nil.

 

Back in late Summer - T Wells - option

 

Out of options - Spring Training competition/ outright assignment waivers

- Matt Bowman

- Bryan Baker

- Nick Vespi

 

Has options but possible non-tender - Dillon Tate

 

AAA depth with options 

- Povich

- McDermott

- Young

- Selby

 

Long shot minors depth 

- Noah Denoyer

- Cameron Weston

- Trace Bright

- Peter van Loon

The way Suarez has pitched he is not a #5.  Performance wise he has pitched better than anyone but Eflin (since Eflin joined the O's).  Of course GRod has a higher ceiling.

I think Povich, Rogers and McDermott fight for the #5 spot next year according to the information we have so far.

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Warehouse said:

Below is how I see the current state. I don’t expect Elias to favor big bucks / long term contracts for proven high leverage relievers, especially when that further limits our pen flexibility. Taking a few reclamation shots is more likely IMO. Injuries could change that calculus though.

 

Starters

1. Eflin

2. GRod - option

3. FA/Trade

4. Kremer - option 

5a. Big Al

5b. Rogers - option

 

Relievers

Cl: Bautista - option 

HL: Dominguez

HL: Coulombe

HL: Cano - option 

MR: Akin - option

MR: Perez

MR: Webb

MR: Burch Smith

 

That’s 14 pitchers for 13 spots, with the odds of all 14 being healthy for opening day practically nil.

 

Back in late Summer - T Wells - option

 

Out of options - Spring Training competition/ outright assignment waivers

- Matt Bowman

- Bryan Baker

- Nick Vespi

 

Has options but possible non-tender - Dillon Tate

 

AAA depth with options 

- Povich

- McDermott

- Young

- Selby

 

Long shot minors depth 

- Noah Denoyer

- Cameron Weston

- Trace Bright

- Peter van Loon

I think this is pretty much right, but would add:

-Soto may be ~$6M but if Elias liked him enough to trade a couple solid prospects for him, he could still be back at that price. Depends how he finishes the year.

-Always possible they add 2 SP and not just 1, depends on how much they’re planning to increase payroll and if they’re retaining Santander or spending on a RP. If all of the available money goes to SP, that probably could afford 2.

-Alex Pham has a pretty good chance to get added to the 40 to be protected from the Rule 5, and will likely be in AAA before the end of the year. He’s been pitching very well of late and his FIP/xFIP are better than his ERA. Potential AAA SP/long reliever depth next year. 

-Luis Gonzalez and Kade Strowd are potential 40-man adds. Gonzalez has pitched much more poorly of late but has good numbers on the season in AAA, and a good high-spin fastball that models well. Strowd has a terrible walk rate in AAA but his stuff is excellent and his strikeout & GB rates are still great, a team could take a flier on him as Rule 5 so the Orioles could protect him. It depends how tight the Orioles will be with their 40-man this offseason but both are potential optionable relievers with 3 options.