Shohei Showdown - The Dodgers Series 8/27-8/29

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, dtk9119 said:

Need a minimum 3-3 road trip. With our luck we'll play down to the competition and probably lose 2 of 3 to COL and end up with like a 1-5 trip..

We haven’t gone 1-5 in quite some time.  July 21-27, to be exact.  That followed three consecutive wins and was followed by winning 4 out of 5.  

[Since1984]

If the Orioles do not sweep this series, I’m going to create a new thread about every loss. Because losses are unique and deserve extra attention. 

For every win, I may have to come back to this thread…

[SemperFi]

24 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't typically participate in online bickering. I've probably done more with you today than I have since I've been a member here. Your comment rubbed me wrong,  but my apologies for responding as a jerk.

 

Your original point was about Povich and Irvin. My contention was in a somewhat perfect world the rotation could have been: Burnes, Bradish, Rodriguez,  Means and Kremer. That would have left Wells and Irvin in the pen and Povich at AAA. So that's 8 plus the additions of Eflin and Rogers. To me,  when you look at that list it's not a surprise that they're relying on whatever they can get right now. 

 

I'm more concerned about 2025 than whatever happens the rest of this year. I hope they don't plan on the returns of the TJ guys as an answer for the rotation. 

That's fine I am having a difficult day so I took some of it out on you also,  I aplogize for my tone.

Elias was hoping on Means and Bradish but he knew they were injured or a question mark, he (burdened by the sale) did not do enough to shore up the rotation either by trade or promotion.  That rotation to start the season was Burnes, Grayson, Kremer, and ? Eflin was a great addition which moves Kremer who has a 0 WAR to 4.  Suarez was another great find but those 4/5 guys are awful.

But my initial assertion that Povich and Irvin with a combine WAR of( -1.3) should not be starting on a WS contending team-and they have started 25 games.

Everyone has injuries and you can make the case 2-3 of those teams have been hit harder than the Orioles.

For clarification the WAR for the 4/5 starters for the other teams (ESPN) is:

Indians .7 

NY 1.5 

Boston .8 

KC  4.8 (w/Lorenzen) 

and the maligned Houston  2.6 (including Kikuchi) 

Orioles (-1.3)

That's a big difference, the other teams adjusted better than the Orioles.

 

[maybenxtyr]

4 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

That's fine I am having a difficult day so I took some of it out on you also,  I aplogize for my tone.

Elias was hoping on Means and Bradish but he knew they were injured or a question mark, he (burdened by the sale) did not do enough to shore up the rotation either by trade or promotion.  That rotation to start the season was Burnes, Grayson, Kremer, and ? Eflin was a great addition which moves Kremer who has a 0 WAR to 4.  Suarez was another great find but those 4/5 guys are awful.

But my initial assertion that Povich and Irvin with a combine WAR of( -1.3) should not be starting on a WS contending team-and they have started 25 games.

Everyone has injuries and you can make the case 2-3 of those teams have been hit harder than the Orioles.

For clarification the WAR for the 4/5 starters for the other teams (ESPN) is:

Indians .7 

NY 1.5 

Boston .8 

KC  4.8 (w/Lorenzen) 

and the maligned Houston  2.6 (including Kikuchi) 

Orioles (-1.3)

That's a big difference, the other teams adjusted better than the Orioles.

 

I hate a "canned" answer, but I'm hoping that the lack of activity this past off season was due to the ownership change. They can't keep throwing away the years of talent control. 

 

[SteveA]

20 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I hate a "canned" answer, but I'm hoping that the lack of activity this past off season was due to the ownership change. They can't keep throwing away the years of talent control. 

 

"keep throwing away the years of talent control".   Ok, yeah, they "threw away" this year.   We are within 2 games of first place on August 26.    They just punted this season, flushed it right down the toilet.

Try to retain a grip on reality.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

"keep throwing away the years of talent control".   Ok, yeah, they "threw away" this year.   We are within 2 games of first place on August 26.    They just punted this season, flushed it right down the toilet.

Try to retain a grip on reality.

Perhaps "throwing away" was the wrong term there, but the years of control go by quickly. 

[spiritof66]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t want to hear about the injuries but they are the reason they are being sent out.  How many mid rotation starters do you think teams can afford to have laying around?

Every team knows that it's likely to lose rotation guys to injury during the course of a seaso. I'm sure many teams have techniques that assess the odds of each of their starters going down; I have no idea how extensive or reliable those data are. The problem of injuries to pitchers is present for everyone. You can't make it go away, and lots of teams are struggling with it, even the Yankees and Dodgers.

There are choices that can affect make the consequences of those injuries. If you focus almost entirely on position players in acquiring young talent, and figure you'll fill your starting pitching needs largely by trades for and free agent signings of guys who are proven major leaguers, you'll be limited by roster limits and financial constraints as to how much pitching talent you will have on hand, and injuries to starters will expose you to real problems as you resort to fill-ins who lack the ability or maturity (or both) to get major leagers out.  There's a pro-active way to reduce the impact of the problems caused by those injuries: bring large numbers of talented pitching prospects into the orgainization, prinncipally by using the amateur draft (even some early picks) and signing international free agents, and develop those guys in the minor league system. Some of them, many of them, will wash out or get hurt (or be moved to the bullpen), but with effective coaching and good luck some will succeed at becoming starting pitchers as they progress through the system, and as when they get to AA and AAA some of them will be able to provide pitching depth to draw on when the ML starters get hurt.

 

 

Edited August 27 by spiritof66

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I hate a "canned" answer, but I'm hoping that the lack of activity this past off season was due to the ownership change. They can't keep throwing away the years of talent control. 

 

I'm an older guy so I know what you mean-I only have so many years left and would like to see the Orioles win another world series. 

I do believe Elias could not offer multi year deals before the sale, we know he built the wall to attract FA pitching so we'll see this off season when he should have the ability to play in that market.  He has little committed to next year's staff so we'll have a better idea of his vision.  He may just be a cheap waiver wire guy-who knows but he only has $19m on the books for next year plus a few million in buy-outs everything is is arb year.  I think we both can agree the Orioles have the position talent but they need more and better arms to compete-guys break all the time.  Thanks for listening to me whine.

[Just Regular]

Checked B-Ref and Trout up on Mookie by 86-69 rWAR entering this series.    It'll be interesting to see how much of that gap Mookie can vanish over the rest of their careers.

Postseason Mookie is 264 PA of .710 OPS, and Trout is 15 PA of .600 OPS.    Shohei of course on zeroes.

Today's list also highlighted Aaron Judge recently surpassed 50 regular season rWAR.

Postseason Judge is 198 PA of .772 OPS, and impending free agent Juan Soto (not to be confused with Livan or Gregory) is 127 PA of .845 OPS.

October pitching challenging for the world's very best hitters as the Orioles roll towards the Mayo vs. 1B/DH incumbents Game 1 decision if Westburg makes it back.

[Jim'sKid26]

Burnes has to feel like he is auditioning for next year's job. I like our chances in game 2.

Maybe Santander wants to play in El Lay next year as well. Chavez Ravine is not the best hitters park but let's hope he feasts on the Dodgers' RHSP.

Don't pitch to Shohei. 

[Just Regular]

I only today bumped into how many CS Ohtani has with 40 steals in the books and pushing for 50/50.   

He had not been as efficient a base stealer previously, but over 90% success rate with high volume so far this year.

[OriolesMagic83]

24 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I only today bumped into how many CS Ohtani has with 40 steals in the books and pushing for 50/50.   

He had not been as efficient a base stealer previously, but over 90% success rate with high volume so far this year.

Ohtani on base vs. Burnes = automatic steal.  Might as well not even throw to 2nd. 

[Just Regular]

Looking up the thread reminded me Trade Deadline was in August last year, so technically just 12 months ago we had...

 

[interloper]

Hard to imagine a less enticing game to stay up past 10pm to watch. Irvin vs Flaherty? Ugh, yeah nah. 

Flaherty, by the way, has a better ERA than Burnes. 

[Roy Firestone]

On 8/26/2024 at 9:28 AM, Aristotelian said:

Getting shut out by Jack Flaherty will be so maddening. 1 of 2 will be a really solid outcome. Hopefully we hit rock bottom soon, then turn things around when we get some of our injured guys back for the stretch run. 

IF we get them back and more significantly,IF we do get them back, they can perform at a high level.I think thats a lot to ask..