Should Rubenstein relieve Mike Elias of his duties?

[Explosivo]

This place never ceases to amaze me. Some people just can’t stomach success even when it slaps them in their stupid faces. I guess it’s a culture problem or an upbringing problem. Perhaps it’s conditioned, but there’s something really wrong with this fan base.

[LookitsPuck]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles were always making the playoffs. They didn’t need a 5th starter to get there. It’s absurd to think that.

They have half their team hurt right now and are still basically a lock to make the playoffs and all of those guys are coming back.  

They arguably needed a 4th to push Kremer to back of the rotation. At the time, Kremer had only been back for a few weeks from a right tricep strain after having blister issues throughout the season.

There were a lot of question marks: Kremer injury, Suarez ineffectiveness, Povich inconsistency, Irvin ineffectiveness (and thus the DFA). 

Bringing on an oft injured, velocity down project pitcher with minimal depth wasn’t wise. 

Is this Elias’s way of saying that he only needed 3 starters for the playoffs and the 4th being Kremer is fine? Maybe. But you still have to make it there. And it basically gave no wiggle room for injuries to Burnes/Grayson/Eflin.

[Aristotelian]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

They arguably needed a 4th to push Kremer to back of the rotation. At the time, Kremer had only been back for a few weeks from a right tricep strain after having blister issues throughout the season.

There were a lot of question marks: Kremer injury, Suarez ineffectiveness, Povich inconsistency, Irvin ineffectiveness (and thus the DFA). 

Bringing on an oft injured, velocity down project pitcher with minimal depth wasn’t wise. 

Is this Elias’s way of saying that he only needed 3 starters for the playoffs and the 4th being Kremer is fine? Maybe. But you still have to make it there. And it basically gave no wiggle room for injuries to Burnes/Grayson/Eflin.

There was zero chance of us missing the playoffs. I don't know why this continues to be a thing.

Yes, it would have been nice for Rogers to outperform Kremer but it is not like the entire playoffs were riding on that. Rogers gave us another option. There were plausible alternate realities where any of Kremer, Rogers, McDermott, Povich, and Irvin start one game in a seven game series. 

[LookitsPuck]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

There was zero chance of us missing the playoffs. I don't know why this continues to be a thing.

Yes, it would have been nice for Rogers to outperform Kremer but it is not like the entire playoffs were riding on that. Rogers gave us another option. There were plausible alternate realities where any of Kremer, Rogers, McDermott, Povich, and Irvin start one game in a seven game series. 

I mean, are we going to act that a team with a mediocre bullpen, a so so rotation, bad defense and an inconsistent offense couldn’t pull a 2007 Mets, 2009 Tigers, 2011 Red Sox, 2011 Braves, or even the 2021 Mets? Because it was definitely possible. There’s a reason why there were so many acquisitions, because the O’s were flawed out the wazoo.

Edited August 30 by LookitsPuck

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

There was zero chance of us missing the playoffs. I don't know why this continues to be a thing.

Yes, it would have been nice for Rogers to outperform Kremer but it is not like the entire playoffs were riding on that. Rogers gave us another option. There were plausible alternate realities where any of Kremer, Rogers, McDermott, Povich, and Irvin start one game in a seven game series. 

Teams have gone from 98%+ chance to make the playoffs to missing the playoffs so the chance wasn't zero.

From Wiki, I give you the 2011 Red Sox, remember them?

Quote

The club led the Tampa Bay Rays by nine games in the AL wild card race on September 3. Boston’s odds of reaching the postseason peaked at 99.6%, but the Red Sox lost 18 of their final 24 games.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yup. Rubenstein needs to open up his wallet. 

This.  Money smooths over a lot of mistakes.  I'm not saying the O's have to spend Dodgers/Yankees type money, but Gibson/Kimbrel type moves aren't going to cut it this coming offseason.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

This.  Money smooths over a lot of mistakes.  I'm not saying the O's have to spend Dodgers/Yankees type money, but Gibson/Kimbrel type moves aren't going to cut it this coming offseason.

Imagine if Elias was afforded the opportunity to get an Imanaga. I’m not even saying we need to go after the Yamamotos, but give the guy some sort of budget instead of shoestring.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Imagine if Elias was afforded the opportunity to get an Imanaga. I’m not even saying we need to go after the Yamamotos, but give the guy some sort of budget instead of shoestring.

Until I see him do it I have my doubts Elias will give anyone a four year contract.

He's had plenty of chances to sign someone to a moderately long term deal and has thus far declined to do so.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Until I see him do it I have my doubts Elias will give anyone a four year contract.

He's had plenty of chances to sign someone to a moderately long term deal and has thus far declined to do so.

Depends if John Angelos tied his hands. We have evidence of Luhnow/Elias handing out multi year deals with the Astros…even for relievers! 

We are going to find out if this is an Elias thing or an Angelos thing soon enough.

[1fingerwillie]

9 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Since there was a thread to eliminate the field manager, I thought there should be a thread to fire the general manager

In the past 12 months we have gone from a 101 win AL East champion backed up by a AAA champion Norfolk tides and #1 farm system to a team

With Slater, Eloy, Rivera, and Livian Soto on the active roster

Connor Norby (10 game hitting streak), and Kyle Stowers ( 6 RBI's this week), were traded for nothing (and there was near universal agreement that this was a dreadful trade)

The system is heavy on LH hitting prospects

The top prospects (Mayo, Kjerstad) have major defensive short comings

No starting pitching has been drafted in upper rounds, there are zero pitching prospects in the pipeline. Cade Povich who does not have a single ML level pitch is in the rotation.

Jackson Holliday (see Norby trade) was rushed to the majors and is not ready

Team has played bad fundamental baseball for most of 2024 but Hyde remains in dugout

2025 looks bleak with the need for at least 3SP's, and several bullpen arms

I was willing to give the draft the bats, trade for the arms approach a chance but the ML wide shortage of pitching has made this approach and Elias a failure.

Time to move on.

 

 

Yep. We should replace him with the guy that did this:

In the past 12 months we have gone from a 101 win AL East champion backed up by a AAA champion Norfolk tides and #1 farm system to a team

[e16bball]

52 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That makes it sound like he was just a bystander.  How many of those were his drafts?

I don’t really have any idea. He wasn’t the GM, and any guess I made towards how much influence he had over the individual picks would be bare speculation.

I was going to write “if you had picked [all these bums]”…but I figured that would imply he made the actual choice. And I don’t know if that’s true. As it pertains to shaping his draft strategy, I think the only part that really matters to my point is that he watched pitcher pick after pitcher pick after pitcher pick completely flame out during his time with the Astros. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I don’t really have any idea. He wasn’t the GM, and any guess I made towards how much influence he had over the individual picks would be bare speculation.

I was going to write “if you had picked [all these bums]”…but I figured that would imply he made the actual choice. And I don’t know if that’s true. As it pertains to shaping his draft strategy, I think the only part that really matters to my point is that he watched pitcher pick after pitcher pick after pitcher pick completely flame out during his time with the Astros. 

Of course the buck stops at the top but Elias was the draft guy for at least some of those years.

I think that if you don't have success in picking pitchers in the first five rounds, you figure out what is causing the misses and improve your process.  You don't just give up.

[1fingerwillie]

8 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

I am somewhat shocked by the support of Elias, so perhaps I can take another approach

Does/will  the draft the bats buy/trade for the pitchers approach work?

Is the O's roster in 2024 stronger than 2023?

Has Elias made effective/sufficient trades in the offseason or at the trade deadlines to move the O's closer to a WS

Does the Orioles system have a defense problem?

Has it been a mistake to not draft pitchers in the upper rounds?

Does a GM have any accountability for a system that all but the High A team are significantly below .500

Is the only path forward to a championship team for Rubenstein to open up his wallet and the O's to outbid others for the scarcity of pitching? Will that work?

and

What specifically has Elias done a good job of? Drafting?, Trading?, giving interviews?

 

You are trolling right? You do know that the ownership changed (check my watch...) just a few months ago?

[OriolesMagic83]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Until I see him do it I have my doubts Elias will give anyone a four year contract.

He's had plenty of chances to sign someone to a moderately long term deal and has thus far declined to do so.

We don't know that until Rubinstein indicates the money is there to sign -players or free agents long term and Elias doesn't do it, I will assume the money isn't there.  Friedman adjusted quite well going from a $60 million payroll in Tampa to a $300 million payroll in LA.  I think Elias will be able to make the transition although with a lower cap.  I don't see any 10 year contracts in the O's future (although who knows Gunnar might be the exception).

[1fingerwillie]

8 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Thanks Tony, I didn't think I was crazy or completely unwarranted in my concerns with Elias

I would also counter that perhaps it is not such a great GM talent to tank a ML team, collect several years of top 5 picks and then get to a playoff level.

I am singly focused on the O's building a championship roster and don't believe that Elias will ever get there. I believe the buy/trade for pitching approach has doomed the Orioles for the next several years at least

You don't think he will ever get there. All of your evidence is based on his work under an owner who insisted on one of the lowest payrolls in the ML.