Baserunning 2024

[Frobby]

Last night’s game featured a horrific baserunning play by Eloy Jimenez when he hesitated rounding second on a sure double by Ramon Urias and was thrown out at 3B by a couple of steps.  There was also a more debatable play where Jackson Holliday tagged up from 2B following a diving catch in CF and was thrown out at 3B.  

That got me wondering how the O’s baserunning is stacking up against other teams’.   There are several useful metrics for this on BB-ref.

1.  Baserunning runs: this is an overall measure of runs added or lost by base running.  The O’s are at +2, in a 4-way tie for 10th place among MLB teams. 

2.  Outs on the bases (OOB): this does not include caught stealing but does include things like getting thrown out on non-force outs, getting doubled up on line drives, etc.  Despite the two plays last night, the O’s are very good here, with only 25 OOB, 3rd best in the majors.  League average is 37.

3.  Extra bases taken percentage (XBT%): this measures how often a team goes 1st to 3rd on a single, 2nd to home on a single, or 1st to home on a double.  The O’s rank 13th at 44%, just above league average of 43%.   So, the combo of being slightly above average at taking extra bases while being way above average at not getting thrown out on the bases is a good one.  

4. Stolen bases/stolen base percentage.   The O’s steal less than the average team, with 81 steals (19th), compared to league average of 100.  Their success rate of 79% is league average, and 14th of 30 teams.  So overall, a little below average in the SB department.  It should be noted that they’ve stolen much less often over the last two months.   Mateo’s absence in August explains some but not all of that.  

Overall, this has been a less aggressive team on the bases than last year’s.   Last year’s team was higher in SB, SB%, XBT% and worse in OOB.  Last year’s team was +14 runs on the bases, 2nd in the majors and much better than this year’s team, though this one is still slightly above average.  

I haven’t really broken things down on an individual level to see if it’s personnel changes or changes in individual performance that explain the changes.  
 

[LGOrioles]

Just a quick look at the Fangraphs base running value, it looks like more Mateo PA’s last year was big. Mullins was a bit better last year and Henderson was a lot better. Hicks and Frazier were also good base runners too. Looks like Holliday will likely grade out pretty well though and it will help as he gets more PA’s. 

[now]

With the blunders in last night's game, it seems baserunning has joined defense, pitching, and hitting as team liabilities. And another contrast to the early part of the season when smart aggressive baserunning was one of the hallmarks of the team's winning character. 

[e16bball]

46 minutes ago, now said:

With the blunders in last night's game, it seems baserunning has joined defense, pitching, and hitting as team liabilities. And another contrast to the early part of the season when smart aggressive baserunning was one of the hallmarks of the team's winning character. 

One of the downsides of smart, aggressive baserunning is that there’s still some risk that they’ll get you out if they make a good play. As with any form of gambling, even smart bets lose sometimes.

I’m not sure how you’re classifying this particular play (i.e., whether you think it was a bad mistake), but I didn’t consider Jackson getting thrown out at third to be a “blunder” — I actually thought it would fall more in the category of “smart, aggressive baserunning.” The dude had to make a top Web Gem play to get Jackson there. And he did, and good for him, but I’ll take those odds to try to get him to 3rd with one out. I’m not even sure he was out, not that the MASN broadcast was able to shed any light on that (nor was the dumb challenge system, where you lose your ability to challenge even if the outcome was “sorry, we can’t tell if you were right or wrong”).

I thought that play came out of the same mindset as the play where he scored on Cedric’s dribbler. Push the point, force them to make a play. Would have been out if the Rockies made the play. But the second time around, the Rockies failed to do it, and the aggressive baserunning paid off.

Edited August 31 by e16bball

[Aristotelian]

Most people in the game thread didn't like Holliday's tag up on that nice play by the CF. IMO it was a good play to try and get to third with one out. I think it was especially frustrating because Eloy had just made the out at third the previous inning but objectively it was a good (or not bad) risk to take.

 

[harp6]

Jimenez was just awful baserunning.  He slowed down as he approached 2nd and then he hesitated and looked at the play out in left field after he rounded 2nd.  A slight peripheral look is all that was needed at second.  He should not be slowing down coming to second and then he should be looking at the third base coach as he rounds 2nd base.  

I like the Holliday aggressiveness.  Doyle made a fantastic catch and was on the ground with his back to the infield.  Doyle just made a fantastic recovery and throw to just beat Holliday.  I think Holliday had over a 90% chance of making it, but Doyle just did everything perfectly to get him. 

The difference between the two is Jimenez gave them the out and Holliday forced Doyle to earn the out and in this case Doyle came thru.

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Last night’s game featured a horrific baserunning play by Eloy Jimenez when he hesitated rounding second on a sure double by Ramon Urias and was thrown out at 3B by a couple of steps.  There was also a more debatable play where Jackson Holliday tagged up from 2B following a diving catch in CF and was thrown out at 3B.  

That got me wondering how the O’s baserunning is stacking up against other teams’.   There are several useful metrics for this on BB-ref.

1.  Baserunning runs: this is an overall measure of runs added or lost by base running.  The O’s are at +2, in a 4-way tie for 10th place among MLB teams. 

2.  Outs on the bases (OOB): this does not include caught stealing but does include things like getting thrown out on non-force outs, getting doubled up on line drives, etc.  Despite the two plays last night, the O’s are very good here, with only 25 OOB, 3rd best in the majors.  League average is 37.

3.  Extra bases taken percentage (XBT%): this measures how often a team goes 1st to 3rd on a single, 2nd to home on a single, or 1st to home on a double.  The O’s rank 13th at 44%, just above league average of 43%.   So, the combo of being slightly above average at taking extra bases while being way above average at not getting thrown out on the bases is a good one.  

4. Stolen bases/stolen base percentage.   The O’s steal less than the average team, with 81 steals (19th), compared to league average of 100.  Their success rate of 79% is league average, and 14th of 30 teams.  So overall, a little below average in the SB department.  It should be noted that they’ve stolen much less often over the last two months.   Mateo’s absence in August explains some but not all of that.  

Overall, this has been a less aggressive team on the bases than last year’s.   Last year’s team was higher in SB, SB%, XBT% and worse in OOB.  Last year’s team was +14 runs on the bases, 2nd in the majors and much better than this year’s team, though this one is still slightly above average.  

I haven’t really broken things down on an individual level to see if it’s personnel changes or changes in individual performance that explain the changes.  
 

Thanks for outlining and calling attention to this important aspect of the game.  Baserunning has certainly been a key difference maker for KCR, ARZ, and MIL this year and TBR, CLE in recent seasons.  And one of the more exciting things to watch as a fan is Gunnar, Mateo, or Cedric sprinting around the bases going from 1st to home on XBH.

Biggest yoy difference is 2023 both Mateo and Gunnar were elite while in 2024 Mateo has been injured/played less and Gunnar merely above average.

Given their sprint speeds, I think Cowser, Westy, and Holliday have the potential for better baserunning performance.  Some of that speed has already manifested with infield singles and triples (not accounted for in these listed measures).  Of course every team has below average runners and Os do with Tony and Rutch. 

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Most people in the game thread didn't like Holliday's tag up on that nice play by the CF. 

Because he was out.  If he’d been safe everyone would have been praising his base running instincts.  

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, harp6 said:

Jimenez was just awful baserunning.  He slowed down as he approached 2nd and then he hesitated and looked at the play out in left field after he rounded 2nd.  A slight peripheral look is all that was needed at second.  He should not be slowing down coming to second and then he should be looking at the third base coach as he rounds 2nd base.  

I like the Holliday aggressiveness.  Doyle made a fantastic catch and was on the ground with his back to the infield.  Doyle just made a fantastic recovery and throw to just beat Holliday.  I think Holliday had over a 90% chance of making it, but Doyle just did everything perfectly to get him. 

The difference between the two is Jimenez gave them the out and Holliday forced Doyle to earn the out and in this case Doyle came thru.

If you're slow (like Jimenez), a bad baserunner (like Jimenez), and even the slightest bit unsure whether to keep running on a hot to the outfield, even when the play is in front of you, why do you need to rely on your own lousy judgment about how the ball is being played, the outfielder's throwing ability, and your own speed? Instead of hesitating to mull it over, why can't you, and why shouldn't you, look at the third base coach, who's got no other runner to think about and communicate with in that situation? Isn't that part of what he's there for?

I don't think Jackson's going home on contact was the smart play, unless there's information about the Rockies' ineptness that I'm not aware of.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

If you're slow (like Jimenez), a bad baserunner (like Jimenez), and even the slightest bit unsure whether to keep running on a hot to the outfield, even when the play is in front of you, why do you need to rely on your own lousy judgment about how the ball is being played, the outfielder's throwing ability, and your own speed? Instead of hesitating to mull it over, why can't you, and why shouldn't you, look at the third base coach, who's got no other runner to think about and communicate with in that situation? Isn't that part of what he's there for?

I don't think Jackson's going home on contact was the smart play, unless there's information about the Rockies' ineptness that I'm not aware of.

Decisions have to be made in split seconds.   If the play is in front of the runner he’s in the best position to know whether he should try to advance or not.   
 

With no outs, it’s a judgement by the runner.   With one out most teams go on contact.   Of course, if it’s hit directly at a fielder or pitcher a good throw usually gets the runner.

[spiritof66]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Decisions have to be made in split seconds.   If the play is in front of the runner he’s in the best position to know whether he should try to advance or not.   
 

With no outs, it’s a judgement by the runner.   With one out most teams go on contact.   Of course, if it’s hit directly at a fielder or pitcher a good throw usually gets the runner.

I understand that's the way it happens, though I never understood why that's always the case on a ball hit to LF or CF and a runner on first. Both the runner and the 3B coach have a very good view of the outfielders involved, the runner has more stuff to think about, and for a baserunner like Jimenez the 3B coach should have more expertise and better judgment about the runner should do. In general, the runner will be in just as good a position as the coach -- not better, but probably just as good -- to make that call, but that generalization doesn't hold when the runner is Eloy Jimenez. 

The batter/baserunner always has the prerogative to ignore the coach's directions, but I don't see why Jimenez wouldn't look for, receive and follow that direction in this situation. 

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, e16bball said:

One of the downsides of smart, aggressive baserunning is that there’s still some risk that they’ll get you out if they make a good play. As with any form of gambling, even smart bets lose sometimes.

I’m not sure how you’re classifying this particular play (i.e., whether you think it was a bad mistake), but I didn’t consider Jackson getting thrown out at third to be a “blunder” — I actually thought it would fall more in the category of “smart, aggressive baserunning.” The dude had to make a top Web Gem play to get Jackson there. And he did, and good for him, but I’ll take those odds to try to get him to 3rd with one out. I’m not even sure he was out, not that the MASN broadcast was able to shed any light on that (nor was the dumb challenge system, where you lose your ability to challenge even if the outcome was “sorry, we can’t tell if you were right or wrong”).

I thought that play came out of the same mindset as the play where he scored on Cedric’s dribbler. Push the point, force them to make a play. Would have been out if the Rockies made the play. But the second time around, the Rockies failed to do it, and the aggressive baserunning paid off.

Exactly…Holliday was fine. ”make them beat you.”

Jiminez’ putout was just a tootblan

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I understand that's the way it happens, though I never understood why that's always the case on a ball hit to LF or CF and a runner on first. Both the runner and the 3B coach have a very good view of the outfielders involved, the runner has more stuff to think about, and for a baserunner like Jimenez the 3B coach should have more expertise and better judgment about the runner should do. In general, the runner will be in just as good a position as the coach -- not better, but probably just as good -- to make that call, but that generalization doesn't hold when the runner is Eloy Jimenez. 

The batter/baserunner always has the prerogative to ignore the coach's directions, but I don't see why Jimenez wouldn't look for, receive and follow that direction in this situation. 

Maybe Jimenez is a special case.  Most runners aren’t looking at the 3B coach as they’re approaching 2B and deciding whether to go for 3B.   They want a sense of exactly where they are when the fielder touches the ball, how his body is positioned to make a throw, if he bobbled or misplayed the ball.  You could miss those things if you’re looking for the coach.

[ledzepp8]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Most people in the game thread didn't like Holliday's tag up on that nice play by the CF. IMO it was a good play to try and get to third with one out. I think it was especially frustrating because Eloy had just made the out at third the previous inning but objectively it was a good (or not bad) risk to take.

 

To be fair, most people in the game threads don’t like anything.

Edited August 31 by ledzepp8

[Aristotelian]

29 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

To be fair, most people in the game threads don’t like anything.

It's funny, from what I remember every single comment said he was stupid for going. I guess what happens in the game thread stays in the game thread.