This is the kind of thing that drives me crazy

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, foxfield said:

Tony

Of course it is valid to question the Orioles pitching  drafting and development. It’s obvious there is a lag in both. 
 

But I think we make too much of it. It’s like criticizing the lack of a WS title.  If that never comes it will certainly be a valid criticism. But in rebuilding completely from the ground up it is clear they focused more on a foundation of player talent. 
 

I think going forward more focus should be seen in this area just as we should rightfully expect more success in the post season. 
 

If drafting stays the exact same for another 5 years he won’t be here imho. I join you and everyone else in hoping to see more pitching success from inhouse. But I am also more than comfortable in where we are today. 

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, but I don't need five more years of Elias' draft strategy to see that it may not be the best strategy after the first round. 

We have enough data points to show that the only pure hitting prospects for major league ready pitching netted the team Trevor Rogers. Elfin and Burnes also cost pitching, which not surprisingly were a former 1st round pick (Hall), and 2nd round pick (Baumeister) along with hitting prospects. 

Elias has yet to trade for young impact pitching prospects with his hitting prospects or even impact pitching with JUST hitting prospects. 

The strategy of picking hitters high in the first round appears to be pretty solid, and I'm not questioning that at all, but ignoring pitching prospects for the most part in the first five rounds of the draft has led the organization to have a gap in impact pitching prospects throughout the organization. This is specially noticeable in AAA this year, which necessitated trading for Soto which not coincidentally cost them two more pitching prospects (Seth Johnson and Moises Chace) not hitting prospects.

[Sports Guy]

This whole rebuilding from the ground up stuff needs to stop. The rebuild was over a few years ago and the Os have a defined philosophy of how they draft, how they develop, etc…what they had to rebuild from is completely irrelevant now. It’s done, it’s been done.

They draft how they draft because they believe it’s the best way. They develop how they develop because they believe it’s the best way. 
 

 

[Warehouse]

You have to give up value to get value.  Different orgs have different development strengths - even a good dev org can have players that do better in different environment with different methods and philosophies.  Sometime you trade players and they blown up after or your acquired players turn out to be duds. Even good orgs make bad trades that are questionable even when you strip out hindsight. A player such as Seth Johnson who is already burning option years comes with additional roster spot considerations (part of why the Rays traded him to us).  For the examples where trades have arguably worked out better for other teams, there are other examples of the reverse. Further, the trade deadline is hectic and poses sequencing challenges in terms of negotiating deals.

With this context, I’m haven’t lost any confidence in the front office.  That said, I think it’s possible that some mistakes were made and definitely possible to take away some learnings. As long as the front office is constantly doing post-mortems and trying to improve processes, I think we’ll be ok.  Everything I have heard suggests that the front-office takes this “growth mindset”.

From a dev perspective, there are a few questions.  Do we need a better balance of simplifying things for pitchers vs focus on analytics? Maybe focus on analytics/pitch shapes for first 2/3 months and then have pitcher take a simplified game planning approach for June/July (which I would imagine helps command)? Maybe the mix should be more tailored based on the player?  Are we babying pitchers too much?  Should we be quicker to convert a player like Seth Johnson to relief (especially given roster status)? Perhaps Seth Johnson with a simplified approach in a relief role could be almost as good as Soto.

From a trade evaluation perspective, both the Rogers and Soto trades raise questions.  With the Soto trade, were we too rigidly narrow in looking for a high velo lefty reliever? Maybe Kopech, Erceg, or Harvey cost a little more but also have higher upside and more control at a reasonable cost.  The Phillies traded an Aron Estrada type for Tanner Banks and shipped off Soto.  Should we have gotten Banks (with option and more control vs Soto) for hitting prospects and saved pitching capital?  Soto had requested a trade - if we give Phillies take-it-or-leave-it offer of Seth Johnson only (no Chace) for Soto, do the Phillies walk away or do we call their bluff?

 

 

[LookitsPuck]

Norby would be the second best hitter on this team while Rogers is the 7th best rotation arm and in the minors. Whatever you want to say after this year, this is a major miss this year especially with how flaccid this offense has been. They’re starting Nick Maton, Rivera, and even giving defense reps to Soto.

[Sports Guy]

Seth Johnson gave up 9 ER in 2.1 IP to the Marlins

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Norby would be the second best hitter on this team while Rogers is the 7th best rotation arm and in the minors. Whatever you want to say after this year, this is a major miss this year especially with how flaccid this offense has been. They’re starting Nick Maton, Rivera, and even giving defense reps to Soto.

I guess on July 30 when Norby was traded they should have known that Westburg would break his hand on July 31 and Urias would sprain his ankle on August 31. 

I’m glad Norby is off to a good start in Miami, bit the idea that he’d be the second best hitter on this team is kind of silly.   He wasn’t even the second best hitter on Norfolk.   
 

[LookitsPuck]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess on July 30 when Norby was traded they should have known that Westburg would break his hand on July 31 and Urias would sprain his ankle on August 31. 

I’m glad Norby is off to a good start in Miami, bit the idea that he’d be the second best hitter on this team is kind of silly.   He wasn’t even the second best hitter on Norfolk.   
 

It’s not my job to be the GM for the O’s, of course. And, yes, Norby was blocked from being a FT 3B or 2B, but at that time there was a hole at 2B. They opted instead to call up Holliday and give Urias the ABs that Westy lost. 

The issue, of course, is it overly relied on these prospects being impact players in the second half. There was never a guarantee that Jackson would turn it around (and he did for a short while, but is back floundering) and we are seeing that Mayo is currently outclassed and without a position.

So, the depth at the time relied on hope. And with Urias hurt it is really showing the problem at play. Starting Nick Maton and Rivera is a problem. Especially when the rest of the lineup can’t hit.

[LookitsPuck]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Seth Johnson gave up 9 ER in 2.1 IP to the Marlins

That’s sad. Was really pulling for Seth.

[Just Regular]

Norby did some of the damage to get his OPS up to .900.

It is invigorating what being inked into the top of the lineup for a 100-loss team can do for a player.  

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Norby did some of the damage to get his OPS up to .900.

It is invigorating what being inked into the top of the lineup for a 100-loss team can do for a player.  

Or maybe just given regular playing time instead of getting two hits and getting benched the next day.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Or maybe just given regular playing time instead of getting two hits and getting benched the next day.

 This is what I’m talking about though. 
 

The Orioles are acting weird imo. Yes, winning matters and changes how you operate but this is a team that has done nothing but try to build from within and pat themselves on the back for how well they are developing but then they turn around and don’t use the guys you developed. 
 

You block them with guys like Frazier, Hicks or Jimenez or whoever else over the last 1-3 years. And we aren’t blocking them with good players. We are blocking them with over the hill vets who don’t provide much value.

Thats what I find odd. Would Cowser be even better had you just played him last year?  Would Kjerstad be further along if he had been given better chances?  Would you have dealt Norby and/or Stowers if you played them?  
 

It’s really frustrating to me. It’s like they went all in with tanking/rebuilding for 1-2 years too long but then when it comes time for that pay off, they don’t fully follow through.

Again, I know winning changed things but really, winning last year should have always been the plan, so they should not have been caught off guard.

[Moose Milligan]

Is Norby going to be the 2020s Steve Finley?  

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 This is what I’m talking about though. 
 

The Orioles are acting weird imo. Yes, winning matters and changes how you operate but this is a team that has done nothing but try to build from within and pat themselves on the back for how well they are developing but then they turn around and don’t use the guys you developed. 
 

You block them with guys like Frazier, Hicks or Jimenez or whoever else over the last 1-3 years. And we aren’t blocking them with good players. We are blocking them with over the hill vets who don’t provide much value.

Thats what I find odd. Would Cowser be even better had you just played him last year?  Would Kjerstad be further along if he had been given better chances?  Would you have dealt Norby and/or Stowers if you played them?  
 

It’s really frustrating to me. It’s like they went all in with tanking/rebuilding for 1-2 years too long but then when it comes time for that pay off, they don’t fully follow through.

Again, I know winning changed things but really, winning last year should have always been the plan, so they should not have been caught off guard.

Can't really argue with any of this.  

[Sports Guy]

And btw, I’m not saying you try to field a team that is only made of players 25 years old or younger…you need some vets…but get good ones. If you are going to block these kids, who are really talented, block them with players that are actual difference makers. 
 

I know they were hamstrung by Angelos and that hurt obviously but you could have done more with what you had imo.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 This is what I’m talking about though. 
 

The Orioles are acting weird imo. Yes, winning matters and changes how you operate but this is a team that has done nothing but try to build from within and pat themselves on the back for how well they are developing but then they turn around and don’t use the guys you developed. 
 

You block them with guys like Frazier, Hicks or Jimenez or whoever else over the last 1-3 years. And we aren’t blocking them with good players. We are blocking them with over the hill vets who don’t provide much value.

Thats what I find odd. Would Cowser be even better had you just played him last year?  Would Kjerstad be further along if he had been given better chances?  Would you have dealt Norby and/or Stowers if you played them?  
 

It’s really frustrating to me. It’s like they went all in with tanking/rebuilding for 1-2 years too long but then when it comes time for that pay off, they don’t fully follow through.

Again, I know winning changed things but really, winning last year should have always been the plan, so they should not have been caught off guard.

Yep. You know my thoughts on all of this and it is frustrating. Even not dealing guys like Mountcastle, Hays or O'Hearn this offseason to make space for guys was short sighted. 

Besides Gunnar, Adley and Holliday, and Westburg to a lesser extent, none of the other prospects like Ortiz, Kjerstad, Cowser, Norby, Stowers, and Mayo were given everyday opportunities from the start. When they did play them, they have a nice game and instantly be back on the bench for days at a time. Cowser finally forced the issue by having that strong start and good defense, if he had struggled at all, Hays would still be in LF.

Ortiz or Westburg should have been the starting 2B last year when they wasted money on Frazier. They came into this year with Cowser and Kjerstad needing everyday PAs, but instead brought their entire outfield back. 

For a team that has been drafting college hitters mostly, it does seem weird that the offense stinks and they have to employ the likes of Jimenez, Rivera and Maton and the only prospects they had ready have really struggled, one of which Mayo is getting the backup experience.