2023 vs 2024 Player WAR & 2025 Opportunities

[Pat Kelly]

Taking a look at 2023 vs 2024 FANGRAPHS WAR, some interesting directional info.  (Acknowledging that WAR is not definitivve,  FG uses FIPERA for Pitcher WAR).  Also did this quickly and took some small liberties on player combo's rather than pure position based WAR.  This is meant to be directional to highlight areas of opportunity not a deep dive on all of the data. 

Highlighted 5 key areas:  

1) TOR/Ace role /Burns FA.  All other roles 2-6 are likely fine.  Bradish coming back in 2nd half of 2025 would be a boost but should not be counted on.   Going into 2025 w/o sourcing a 4 WAR type of replacement for Burns would be a huge miss.    Most important decision/move for 2025. 

2) Need to solidify closer and BP which is hopefully Felix coming back strong but should not depend on 2023 dominance.  Need a deep pen with reliable depth in minors and assume more trade deadline reinforcements.   Plenty of good options here, spend $ smartly but don't depend solely on waiver claims. 

3) Adley - none of Elias' 2024 calculus included AR's huge 2nd half dropoff.    If he does not come back strong, may have to re-think AR contribution and make up for any defecit in other positions.  If Gunnar is a 10 and Adley's a 4 WAR we are more than fine, should not assume Adley is a 5+WAR player. 

4) Santander - How is he best replaced?  Elevate Heston and pair him with a RH platoon partner who can back-up all three OF postions.  Not an easy find but needs to be impactful - a RH bat, preferably a high OBP type- that player does not exist in the org in terms of 2025 readiness.     Supposedly that's why Mayo is so highly valued as a RH  bat which is why not developing him as an OFer is curious. 

5) Jackson Holliday - Biggest upside story for 2025.  Expect to see major improvement and the type of bat the lineup needs.  Should be settled in, got to experience the post season without playing but a lot of the Elias' plan/process is dependent on JH becoming a very good player. 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Pat Kelly

[Aristotelian]

Full season of Eflin replaces at least some of Burnes. Anyone hoping for a Burnes replacement is going to be disappointed IMO.

Replacing Kimbrel -1.1 WAR with Bautista should be a 3 WAR gain. 

I agree we shouldn't count on Adley for 5-6 WAR. Hopefully he is good for 3-4. 

I honestly have no idea what Elias will do. We are "good not great" just about everywhere on the roster except shortstop. We could probably do nothing and still win 80 games, maybe even 90. The problem is it gets extremely costly to add marginal talent to get from 90 to 100.

[Too Tall]

Nice OP. Thanks for the effort. Like the chart. Surprised it hasn't received much response. You sum up a lot of what I hope for as well. I'd add:

I think a full - healty year of Westy will be even more valuable. I think Gunnar has even more in the tank. I want - hope that Holliday can develop into the lead off hitter and OBP table setter we need. And, I so want Cowser to cut down on strike outs and continue to develop as a professional hitter. I think he has the potential to cover for the loss of Santander while Big K develops on the right side. A lot to hope for but I believe these youngsters have a lot of potential yet to tap. And oh yes - I want Mayo to make Roy and all of us proud! Thanks again for the effort! I look at pitching as if we have a base. I agree with your points 1 and 2.

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Full season of Eflin replaces at least some of Burnes. Anyone hoping for a Burnes replacement is going to be disappointed IMO.

Replacing Kimbrel -1.1 WAR with Bautista should be a 3 WAR gain. 

I agree we shouldn't count on Adley for 5-6 WAR. Hopefully he is good for 3-4. 

I honestly have no idea what Elias will do. We are "good not great" just about everywhere on the roster except shortstop. We could probably do nothing and still win 80 games, maybe even 90. The problem is it gets extremely costly to add marginal talent to get from 90 to 100.

Yeah.

-Would love to keep Burnes but I seriously doubt it.

-I have a lot of faith in Adley. 
- Holliday has huge ceiling even if he isn’t ready to be elite. 
- doesn’t always work this way but the better your closer is tends to help rest of pen 

[Sports Guy]

The real improvement of this team will come from within. 
 

The 3-5 players they bring in from outside the org will supplement the roster…maybe put it over the top but the real improvement will come from those already in the org.

[eddie83]

As great as Gunnar is can’t assume he matches last year. That said I like the odds of the team as a whole matching what we did. 

[survivedc]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Full season of Eflin replaces at least some of Burnes. Anyone hoping for a Burnes replacement is going to be disappointed IMO.

Replacing Kimbrel -1.1 WAR with Bautista should be a 3 WAR gain. 

I agree we shouldn't count on Adley for 5-6 WAR. Hopefully he is good for 3-4. 

I honestly have no idea what Elias will do. We are "good not great" just about everywhere on the roster except shortstop. We could probably do nothing and still win 80 games, maybe even 90. The problem is it gets extremely costly to add marginal talent to get from 90 to 100.

I’m not so sure the bolded part is true. I think a lot of that last bit can have to do with small skills: situational hitting/running, above average play in close games, generally things that can be boiled down to “luck.”

I didn’t see this years team as having a major talent discrepancy from the 2023 version.

[Too Tall]

14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

As great as Gunnar is can’t assume he matches last year. That said I like the odds of the team as a whole matching what we did. 

Everything revolves around the health of the player. I think Gunnar has more. I think the collision with Mateo set Gunnar back and affected him in ways we will never know. I'm no mind specialist but Gunnar is young plays all out, and that had to bother him. I've watched that collision a number of times. No fault - just two players going all out and one is finished for the year. It just so happened that Gunnar got the yips and his batting went south soon thereafter. Maybe a coincidence but I think we will see a rejuvenated Gunnar next year and all stops are off. 

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I’m not so sure the bolded part is true. I think a lot of that last bit can have to do with small skills: situational hitting/running, above average play in close games, generally things that can be boiled down to “luck.”

I didn’t see this years team as having a major talent discrepancy from the 2023 version.

With Burnes and full year of Westburg we should have been as good or better than 2023. It's possible we could win 100 with the same guys but a lot of things would have to go right, I 202% it seemed what could go wrong did go wrong, Adley is a huge question mark but there really isn't anything we can do except hope that he gets right. If he does, that's another 2-3 WAR.

[eddie83]

22 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Everything revolves around the health of the player. I think Gunnar has more. I think the collision with Mateo set Gunnar back and affected him in ways we will never know. I'm no mind specialist but Gunnar is young plays all out, and that had to bother him. I've watched that collision a number of times. No fault - just two players going all out and one is finished for the year. It just so happened that Gunnar got the yips and his batting went south soon thereafter. Maybe a coincidence but I think we will see a rejuvenated Gunnar next year and all stops are off. 

Gunnar had a MVP caliber season. I expect great things from him. If he can be even better that’s great. I’m just saying take 10% off it’s still impressive year. 

I’m just saying as a whole the team has upside. Young teams do. 

[foxfield]

55 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Full season of Eflin replaces at least some of Burnes. Anyone hoping for a Burnes replacement is going to be disappointed IMO.

Replacing Kimbrel -1.1 WAR with Bautista should be a 3 WAR gain. 

I agree we shouldn't count on Adley for 5-6 WAR. Hopefully he is good for 3-4. 

I honestly have no idea what Elias will do. We are "good not great" just about everywhere on the roster except shortstop. We could probably do nothing and still win 80 games, maybe even 90. The problem is it gets extremely costly to add marginal talent to get from 90 to 100.

The two bolded parts speak to the issue for this offseason.  If the output of Burnes isn't replaced, the results next year are not going to be better.  Because yes, the Orioles are very good and likely to win 80-90 games either way. 

But if they expect better results, they are going to have to increase talent in the areas that they need marginal increase.  If that is expensive then that is what it is.  But in my mind it is the central question to this offseason.  We either have to spend to support this team or make trades to make the necessary increases.  It doen't matter which way or what combination of this occurs, but without it we are merely treading water and hoping that our own player growth can somehow beat the increases of the top teams who are doing more.

[survivedc]

18 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The two bolded parts speak to the issue for this offseason.  If the output of Burnes isn't replaced, the results next year are not going to be better.  Because yes, the Orioles are very good and likely to win 80-90 games either way. 

But if they expect better results, they are going to have to increase talent in the areas that they need marginal increase.  If that is expensive then that is what it is.  But in my mind it is the central question to this offseason.  We either have to spend to support this team or make trades to make the necessary increases.  It doen't matter which way or what combination of this occurs, but without it we are merely treading water and hoping that our own player growth can somehow beat the increases of the top teams who are doing more.

“You’re trying to replace Burnes, we can’t replace him. But what we might be able to do is rebuild him in the aggregate.”

 

[Just Regular]

19 minutes ago, survivedc said:

“You’re trying to replace Burnes, we can’t replace him. But what we might be able to do is rebuild him in the aggregate.”

 

I am curious to see how many imitators the TIgers replacing Jack Flaherty in the aggregate, etc. inspire early in 2025.

Maybe we shouldn't fret about who the SP5 is because the role isn't even really envisioned for the roster.

[foxfield]

47 minutes ago, survivedc said:

“You’re trying to replace Burnes, we can’t replace him. But what we might be able to do is rebuild him in the aggregate.”

 

That's what Brad Pitt said!

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

“You’re trying to replace Burnes, we can’t replace him. But what we might be able to do is rebuild him in the aggregate.”

 

Billy Beane also famously said “My (expletive) doesn’t work in the playoffs.”