What the Os did at the deadline will matter

[Sports Guy]

There has been a lot of talk about signing multiple starters, not picking up options/non tendering guys, etc…

The reality is that what Elias did at the deadline will matter and will be how they construct the roster.

The Orioles are not going to go out and sign 2 starters and risk blocking Rogers or Povich and just having them in the minors.  
 

I do believe they sign one starter and I do think a guy like Bieber, who won’t be pitching in the majors until midway through the season is possible but they just aren’t going to do anything more than that. 
 

Same thing for the pen. The chances are the pen we ended the year with is what we will have in 2025, plus Felix of course.  Maybe they don’t bring back one guy who was on it but that’s about it. 
 

When Elias added Eflin, Rogers, Soto and Dominguez, he spoke about how they liked them because they had control beyond 2024. Dominguez pitched reasonably well, Soto was very good after his first few outings and obviously Eflin was a big pick up.

That really just leaves Rogers. He has options and is making nothing, so obviously he is being brought back.  While it’s possible he starts in AAA, it will be because Povich beat him out.

Now, things could change if we have another pitcher injury during the offseason like we have had the last few years but as of now, the realistic expectation should be 1 starter, 1 reliever (at most) and role players for the offense.  

[Spy Fox]

I still think it was a pretty good deadline and the impacts on 2025 are a big reason why. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I still think it was a pretty good deadline and the impacts on 2025 are a big reason why. 

Right..btw, I don’t want this to come across as me being upset by this strategy. I think one reliever, a good TOR level guy and a few key bench guys is what the team needs. I don’t think we need to go crazy with drastic roster changes.

And while a second good starter would be justifiable, they just aren’t going to do it barring an injury or unexpected trade.

[Just Regular]

I'll be happy if actions prove me wrong, but I do think Eflin is the Burnes replacement in the roster build and having them together for a minute was a byproduct of Elias' slightly increased aggression during 2024.

You guys have written how 21-22 roster spots are basically locked, and that can get very close to 26 if you are generous to Rogers and both Ryans return along with Mateo and Urias.

It will be saucy around here if the result of Elias' extra scrutiny results in doubling down on the same 25 guys.    A blackjack dealer would say you don't change basic strategy after a bad beat.

After this deadline, I do feel better about Elias properly equipping the roster in July, but in tandem with that the winter and spring might be kind of a dead fish.

[Sports Guy]

I do believe that Soto and Dominguez, who are slated to make about 14M combined, are overpaid but not by a lot.

I think the idea that they performed well, don’t have long term commitments and were traded outweighs the slight overpay.

Now, I do think this rules out signing a reliever to huge dollars long term. It may rule out any reliever making 7-10M, even if it’s for 1-2 years (see the Bowden guess at Holmes contract for an example) but I think a shorter term deal makes that possible.  The years shouldn’t matter but I think they will to Elias.

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I'll be happy if actions prove me wrong, but I do think Eflin is the Burnes replacement in the roster build and having them together for a minute was a byproduct of Elias' slightly increased aggression during 2024.

You guys have written how 21-22 roster spots are basically locked, and that can get very close to 26 if you are generous to Rogers and both Ryans return along with Mateo and Urias.

It will be saucy around here if the result of Elias' extra scrutiny results in doubling down on the same 25 guys.    A blackjack dealer would say you don't change basic strategy after a bad beat.

After this deadline, I do feel better about Elias properly equipping the roster in July, but in tandem with that the winter and spring might be kind of a dead fish.

The way I see it, you are IFers are:

Mayo, Holliday, Westburg, Henderson, Urias and Mateo

OFers: 

Mullins, Kjerstad, Cowser

DH/UTI guy: OHearn 

Pitchers:

GRod, Eflin, Kremer, Povich or Rogers, Felix, Akin, Soto, Dominguez, DC, Webb And Cano.

 

Thats 21 guys.  That leaves off Mountcastle and Perez but both definitely could be back. If Mounty and OHearn are back, Mayo is in AAA.

So I think 5 is the max we need to add from outside the org. I would be very surprised if that number grows higher than that unless injuries happen this offseason.

[Aristotelian]

I agree, to an extent the '24 deadline is in effect also our '24-25 offseason. Folks are underrating the Eflin acquisition in particular. Yes, he was brought in for the playoffs but also makes it less critical to resign/replace Burnes, and he is an $18M commitment. At the end of July we could make a decision whether it is necessary to bring in another TOR guy. If Bradish is looking good, that may not be necessary. We have good depth as is with Povich, Rogers, McDermott, and (we think) Suarez and potentially Wells.

I do think the options on Seranthony and Soto are just that, options. We bought the right to bring them back but we don't have to. I could see passing on one or both of them and then signing a more elite arm like Yates, Yimi, etc. If we don't sign anyone, I would interpret that as a vote of confidence in Felix's rehab. 

I have also learned to always temper my expectations for a big offseason. I honestly have no idea what to expect this time. We don't have any real gaping holes, so we would have to spend a lot for really elite talent to improve just about anywhere. That hasn't been Elias's m.o. and I don't expect it to be, even under new ownership.

 

[Just Regular]

It would be a crowd but maybe O'Hearn plays more RF.    Adley DH might dwindle as the team processes 2024's information how to have him right at the end of the season.

1B - Mayo 80, Mountcastle 80

RF - Kjerstad 140, O'Hearn 20

DH - O'Hearn 80, Mayo 60, Adley 20

In 2024 we saw Elias compress the roster to hoard Urias and Mateo, and the Ryans are maybe bigger assets.    The Prospect Promotion Incentive is basically designed to work for 2025 Coby Mayo, if Elias still believes he can be as viable a candidate as Cowser.     The GM's can manipulate that competition by giving or withholding repetitions.

Hoarding Urias and Mateo was a domino helping the Orioles preserve Mayo's rookie eligibility for 2025.

I guess all that would recreate the Austin Hays life experience for Ryan Mountcastle.   

[Too Tall]

I agree. I do believe, the O's spend on a number 1 or 2 pitcher either through FA or trade. They further augment the bull pen and adjust the offensive side as well. How they do the latter could very well be intertwined with the pitching adjustments they make. 

I think, our new ownership has indicated some degree of fiscal aggressiveness. That should translate to Elias's budget. Losing Burnes and not recovering in some kind, will be a hard narrative to sell. Buying surpluss pitching could lead to trades for assets on the offensive side. 

Haven't said this for quite a while. Going to be a fun off season! I think we will be surprised at the activity.

[sportsfan8703]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There has been a lot of talk about signing multiple starters, not picking up options/non tendering guys, etc…

The reality is that what Elias did at the deadline will matter and will be how they construct the roster.

The Orioles are not going to go out and sign 2 starters and risk blocking Rogers or Povich and just having them in the minors.  
 

I do believe they sign one starter and I do think a guy like Bieber, who won’t be pitching in the majors until midway through the season is possible but they just aren’t going to do anything more than that. 
 

Same thing for the pen. The chances are the pen we ended the year with is what we will have in 2025, plus Felix of course.  Maybe they don’t bring back one guy who was on it but that’s about it. 
 

When Elias added Eflin, Rogers, Soto and Dominguez, he spoke about how they liked them because they had control beyond 2024. Dominguez pitched reasonably well, Soto was very good after his first few outings and obviously Eflin was a big pick up.

That really just leaves Rogers. He has options and is making nothing, so obviously he is being brought back.  While it’s possible he starts in AAA, it will be because Povich beat him out.

Now, things could change if we have another pitcher injury during the offseason like we have had the last few years but as of now, the realistic expectation should be 1 starter, 1 reliever (at most) and role players for the offense.  

You need depth. Lineup and pitching. Pitching more so. There’s a reason that TB and HOU are in the playoffs every year. Depth. Last year was just too much for both of them to finally overcome. 

We need one more pitcher with TOR upside to pair with Grayson, Eflin, Kremer, Suarez, Povich, Rogers, and McDermott. 

Next year is where we could potentially feel the loss of Baumeister and Seth Johnson. More so has deep depth the way McDermott was in 2024. 

I’m hoping for Robbie Ray when we strike out on Burnes. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You need depth. Lineup and pitching. Pitching more so. There’s a reason that TB and HOU are in the playoffs every year. Depth. Last year was just too much for both of them to finally overcome. 

We need one more pitcher with TOR upside to pair with Grayson, Eflin, Kremer, Suarez, Povich, Rogers, and McDermott. 

Next year is where we could potentially feel the loss of Baumeister and Seth Johnson. More so has deep depth the way McDermott was in 2024. 

I’m hoping for Robbie Ray when we strike out on Burnes. 

The Os are going to look for depth they can put in the minors.  They aren’t blocking what we have for the majors.  It’s just not happening. 

[interloper]

Eh, who knows. 

I don't really think Rogers or Povich will stop them from improving the roster, personally. Those are good depth guys. 

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree, to an extent the '24 deadline is in effect also our '24-25 offseason. Folks are underrating the Eflin acquisition in particular. Yes, he was brought in for the playoffs but also makes it less critical to resign/replace Burnes, and he is an $18M commitment. At the end of July we could make a decision whether it is necessary to bring in another TOR guy. If Bradish is looking good, that may not be necessary. We have good depth as is with Povich, Rogers, McDermott, and (we think) Suarez and potentially Wells.

I do think the options on Seranthony and Soto are just that, options. We bought the right to bring them back but we don't have to. I could see passing on one or both of them and then signing a more elite arm like Yates, Yimi, etc. If we don't sign anyone, I would interpret that as a vote of confidence in Felix's rehab. 

I have also learned to always temper my expectations for a big offseason. I honestly have no idea what to expect this time. We don't have any real gaping holes, so we would have to spend a lot for really elite talent to improve just about anywhere. That hasn't been Elias's m.o. and I don't expect it to be, even under new ownership.

 

Elias isn’t giving relievers 3+ year contracts. 
 

If he can get Holmes for 2 years, great but he’s not going to go nuts with the reliever contracts.  The one year deals for Soto and Dominguez make them near locks.

[SemperFi]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There has been a lot of talk about signing multiple starters, not picking up options/non tendering guys, etc…

The reality is that what Elias did at the deadline will matter and will be how they construct the roster.

The Orioles are not going to go out and sign 2 starters and risk blocking Rogers or Povich and just having them in the minors.  
 

I do believe they sign one starter and I do think a guy like Bieber, who won’t be pitching in the majors until midway through the season is possible but they just aren’t going to do anything more than that. 
 

Same thing for the pen. The chances are the pen we ended the year with is what we will have in 2025, plus Felix of course.  Maybe they don’t bring back one guy who was on it but that’s about it. 
 

When Elias added Eflin, Rogers, Soto and Dominguez, he spoke about how they liked them because they had control beyond 2024. Dominguez pitched reasonably well, Soto was very good after his first few outings and obviously Eflin was a big pick up.

That really just leaves Rogers. He has options and is making nothing, so obviously he is being brought back.  While it’s possible he starts in AAA, it will be because Povich beat him out.

Now, things could change if we have another pitcher injury during the offseason like we have had the last few years but as of now, the realistic expectation should be 1 starter, 1 reliever (at most) and role players for the offense.  

In that scenario what is the marketing pitch to sell or upgrade season tickets?   

My first question as an owner would be-how will that that approach generate more revenue?  What is the attendance risk if we continue to play .500 ball?   

Where is the hope that they will be better or more entertaining than last year?  Will that approach put fans in the seats willing to upgrade or spend more at the park?

Hope brought fans to OPACY last year and frankly I don't believe the experience over the last 100 games  brings them back-sub par defense, pitching  a tedious all or nothing offense, admitted crappy stadium experience.

You are losing arguably two of your best, most productive players-the NYY are again a juggernaut, your brand of baseball (last 100 games) is not entertaining.  

I don't disagree that moves at the deadline foreshadow roster construction for 2025 but I believe ownership/management will spend for two reasons:

-last year's end product was subpar-they over promised and under delivered-lot's of empty seats in the playoffs was very scary from a marketing perspective.

-Rubenstein is going to be under pressure to add payroll by MLPA and a very influential faction of owners.  The Orioles have not yet been added to the MLBPA grievance re: teams not spending their revenue sharing funds (Oakland, TB, Pittsburgh, Miami).  This will be a HUGE issue in the next CBA and something  that new ownership given their visibility (both inside and outside MLB) would like to avoid at all costs.

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

In that scenario what is the marketing pitch to sell or upgrade season tickets?   

My first question as an owner would be-how will that that approach generate more revenue?  What is the attendance risk if we continue to play .500 ball?   

Where is the hope that they will be better or more entertaining than last year?  Will that approach put fans in the seats willing to upgrade or spend more at the park?

Hope brought fans to OPACY last year and frankly I don't believe the experience over the last 100 games  brings them back-sub par defense, pitching  a tedious all or nothing offense, admitted crappy stadium experience.

You are losing arguably two of your best, most productive players-the NYY are again a juggernaut, your brand of baseball (last 100 games) is not entertaining.  

I don't disagree that moves at the deadline foreshadow roster construction for 2025 but I believe ownership/management will spend for two reasons:

-last year's end product was subpar-they over promised and under delivered-lot's of empty seats in the playoffs was very scary from a marketing perspective.

-Rubenstein is going to be under pressure to add payroll by MLPA and a very influential faction of owners.  The Orioles have not yet been added to the MLBPA grievance re: teams not spending their revenue sharing funds (Oakland, TB, Pittsburgh, Miami).  This will be a HUGE issue in the next CBA and something  that new ownership given their visibility (both inside and outside MLB) would like to avoid at all costs.

 

 

 

The pitch is that they have improved upon a playoff team, have the best young talent in the sport and should be a playoff team in most scenarios.  
 

In other words, it’s the pitch any team can hope for because, for the most part, individual players don’t bring you ticket sales that make a difference.  A guy like Ohtani is obviously an exception but far from a rule.