Challenge To All Statistical Gurus!

[Pedro Cerrano]

It is a crap shoot period. Again, I could throw darts and be just as apt to hit the next sucessful minor leaguer to make it to the majors in the Orioles system against Drungo picking 10 people using stats.

Lol, this is absolutely 100% not the truth.

Let me ask you something. Are you honestly going to tell me that if you looked at Joe Mauer's MiL #s versus Geronomo Gil's that it would be a complete crap shoot as to which one would have a better major league career?!

Mauer's MiL BA is 40 points or so higher than Gil's. Is it really a crap shoot? REALLY? REALLY? Please answer this.

[Eli Eon]

No. YOU need to tell US what unheralded O's MiL player will turn into a legit super-star.

Don't go using our former first-round draft pick as a crutch.

I honestly have no clue as I don't watch minor league games which I would have to do to make any type of prediction, since minor league stats are essentially meaningless for the most part to me.

I can usually tell a lot about a player by observation. I once posted on the Sun board that I thought Kurt Ainsworth was a bum when the majority thought he was the next Cy YOung after doing well in spring training. Turned out I was right on that one. I also thought Bigbie would never amount to anything and was correct again. I also thought the Orioles were fools to let G-MattJr get away as they were with Cust. So I think I am a fairly good judge of talent but only after I can observe a player in action for a few games at least.

[os1971]

Okay. I don't want to be accused of twisting anything you wrote. That is a fair enough answer. They have some high draft choices playing don't they like Majewski, Snyder and Reimold? I guess their stats aren't good enough huh?

I guess if Wieters hits 200 in the high minors he won't ever get the call up either eh?

From what little I know about minor leaguers (and I'll admit my knowledge in this area is pretty weak), our prospects at AAA are pretty lame.

As you go down levels, of course the abilty to predict success gets harder. But if you allowed some quality scouts with minor league savvy to cherry pick prospects with some reasonable time at the AAA level, I'd say they would have pretty fair success in determining who would have success at the ML level (especially so for position players). Certainly not a crap shoot, especially for the more talented players.

[Eli Eon]

Lol, this is absolutely 100% not the truth.

Let me ask you something. Are you honestly going to tell me that if you looked at Joe Mauer's MiL #s versus Geronomo Gil's that it would be a complete crap shoot as to which one would have a better major league career?!

Mauer's MiL BA is 40 points or so higher than Gil's. Is it really a crap shoot? REALLY? REALLY? Please answer this.

Just looking at that I would honestly say yes. However, if I look at both of them on the field there is no comparison.

[Moose Milligan]

I honestly have no clue as I don't watch minor league games which I would have to do to make any type of prediction, since minor league stats are essentially meaningless for the most part to me.

How convienient...

[Fan4Life]

Then go ahead, throw some darts and pick one.

I'll go with what Drungo has to say....

Yeah, we need to place all the AAA-AA players names into a computer hat of sorts and let it pick 10 guys at random versus letting our Stat team pick 10 names based on their own analysis.

[Eli Eon]

From what little I know about minor leaguers (and I'll admit my knowledge in this area is pretty weak), our prospects at AAA are pretty lame.

As you go down levels, of course the abilty to predict success gets harder. But if you allowed some quality scouts with minor league savvy to cherry pick prospects with some reasonable time at the AAA level, I'd say they would have pretty fair success in determining who would have success at the ML level (especially so for position players). Certainly not a crap shoot, especially for the more talented players.

I am not espousing it to be a crap shoot with scouts. I am espousing that using stats only as a prediction is a crap shoot.

[Eli Eon]

Yeah, we need to place all the AAA-AA players names into a computer hat of sorts and let it pick 10 guys at random versus letting our Stat team pick 10 names based on their own analysis.

I will go for that!

[PaulFolk]

No, its a crap shoot whether Brandon Fahey will make it as a major leaguer. So far he has a shot which is a lot more than a lot of minor leaguers get.

Huh?? Out of my entire post, that's what you take out? How does that even remotely address what I said?

[Pedro Cerrano]

Just looking at that I would honestly say yes. However, if I look at both of them on the field there is no comparison.

Lol so there we have it!!! Eli's brilliant thesis boils down to this. There is absolutely no way to tell whether or not Joe Mauer is better than Geronimo Gil unless you actually see both of them play.

Wow.

[Fan4Life]

I will go for that!

When said all the AAA-AA players names, I didn't mean just inside the O's organization. You still game?

[Pedro Cerrano]

I honestly have no clue

Ahh, you finally said something correct (although I had to cut out the wrong stuff, aka the last 99% of the post). Congrats!

[Lt Melmo]

Hey guys, I have a proposition. I'm gonna propose it here and hope it catches on. Maybe the FO reads this!

My grandmother... well, she's 80 years old and she's in a wheelchair and she has terrible lumbago... but she really wants to play shortstop for the Orioles. It's been her dream her entire life.

So you know what I think?

I think the O's should give her a chance. I mean, she's never held a baseball in her life before(it was banned in the old country) and she needs to take a nap every 15 minutes... but can you prove she can't be a successful major leaguer? No, you can't. Because anything can happen. With grandma playing baseball, it's really just a big crap shoot. Maybe when she walks(rolls) onto the diamond, her lumbago will be cured and she won't be such a narcoleptic? It could happen.

I also think she should skip all the minor leagues because they're just seasons of meaningless games played by androids in which no talent is involved. I hear minor league games played in an anti-gravity space simulator, too! No, what granny really needs is the guidance of Terry Crowley, who will surely turn her into a major league hitter. She deserves that help just as much as anyone else.

Granny can be a major leaguer. An All-Star, even. I know it.

YOU CAN'T DISPROVE IT.

[Eli Eon]

Huh?? Out of my entire post, that's what you take out? How does that even remotely address what I said?

Again, I will argue to the death that trying to predict future major league success based soley on minor league stats is a crap shoot or similar to throwing darts at a board.

Not one Hangout member has taken my challenge so far. So how useful can all these stats be? Anyone can say that minor league stats support the truly great players, but that is usually hindsight. As a prediction tool they are virtually useless, and scouts and manager input much more reliable along with spring training games.

[Moose Milligan]

Just looking at that I would honestly say yes. However, if I look at both of them on the field there is no comparison.

Thats just a horrible, ass backwards statement. Because stats are an indicator of what happens on the field....