Bell hits first HR for Bowie

[AmsO]

No and yes. There is only 3 weeks left in the season, players are where they are going to stay for the year minus organizational guys moving up or down to fill holes. He's advanced enough that should he get on a roll in ST he could be in consideration for 3rd if it's still open (although I think that's a bit of a stretch) and at least should be ready by midseason next year after starting in AAA. Depends on his spring.

Maybe I am missing something here, but how can a guy that can't hit lefthanded pitching in AA be expected to be a starter in the big leagues midseason next year? :scratchchinhmm:

Approximately 40% of Mora's ab's have been against lefties.

[NewMarketSean]

Does he have a chance to make the team in ST next year?

Probably not...and we'll probably see Wigginton at 3B until May.

[NewMarketSean]

Maybe I am missing something here, but how can a guy that can't hit lefthanded pitching in AA be expected to be a starter in the big leagues midseason next year? :scratchchinhmm:

Approximately 40% of Mora's ab's have been against lefties.

Maybe platoon him with Wigginton, who can hit LHP (just not this season).

[TheBandit]

Maybe platoon him with Wigginton, who can hit LHP (just not this season).

You do not platoon a guy like that. You simply allow him to start at AAA and let him figure it out. All you need is more AB's and that's really what it is. Wieters is weaker from the right side because he hadn't seen that many lefties, but he has started to really make adjustments and get comortable.

Also, remember Wieters is more polished.

[murrayfan420]

Maybe platoon him with Wigginton, who can hit LHP (just not this season).

Wouldn't he be better served in AAA learning how to hit righties, or abandoning switch hitting all together?

No sense in rushing the kid until he's ready.

[murrayfan420]

The plan is contending in 2011 right?

Is Bell going to be more ready to contribute in 2011 breaking in as a rookie, or after having 450+ Major League at-bats under his belt?

I could argue either way, but I lean towards the ML experience.

If he's struggling to the tune of a .200 batting average in AA against lefties, I think it's too soon to expect him to learn it in the majors. That's just my opinion.

[waroriole]

Again, he has that avg as a right-handed hitter. I say eliminate his switch-hitting, and concentrate on just batting from the left-hand side.

Have you seen him play? That is not really a comment that makes sense unless you have, and have studied his swing. I trust that whoever makes that decision will have put alot of time into it, and actually seen him hit LHP while batting LH. This one is up to the coaches, and I don't see how a fan can legitimately have an opinion about this.

[murrayfan420]

Have you seen him play? That is not really a comment that makes sense unless you have, and have studied his swing. I trust that whoever makes that decision will have put alot of time into it, and actually seen him hit LHP while batting LH. This one is up to the coaches, and I don't see how a fan can legitimately have an opinion about this.

I don’t know much about him so I have no idea how well he could eventually hit as a right hander.. or if they should scrap the switch hitting. This is from Melewski’s blog:

http://masnsports.com/2009/08/an-educated-opinion-on-josh-be.html

Bell this year is batting .335-11-45 in 230 at bats with a .600 slugging percentage as a lefty hitter, but only .212-0-7 in 104 at bats with a .269 slugging percentage as a right-handed batter.

Watson said that disparity was not a concern for the Dodgers.

"Most switch-hitters have years where they are better from one side. For Josh, it's a matter of seeing more left-handed pitching. His power is equal from both sides, he just needs the reps (vs. lefties)."

He said the Dodgers never considered having Bell bat only from the left side.

"Never, not even close to thinking that way," Watson said.

[TheBandit]

No, I have not see him play.... but I do have the ability to read stats.

I didn't read anything else because I already knew by this quote that you are jumping the gun with the wrong information. Scouting reports trump stats 100% of the time. Funny, we are discussing this about Hoes and Avery in their thread too. Weird how the coincidences keep happening on this board.

Go watch him play. A switch-hitting power hitting 3rd baseman (a la Chipper Jones) is worth more than a guy you have to platoon with a righty every time a lefty comes in (a la Luke Scott). Why give up on him at 22 years old?

Oh yeah, and in Bell's entire minor league career, he only has 340 AB's right handed to 1096 AB's left handed.

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=458679

[Mackus]

No, I have not see him play.... but I do have the ability to read stats.

When we obtained Bell, he had had 334 at-bats for Chattanooga, with an overall .883 OPS.

This included a 1.025 OPS vs RHP, and a .566 vs LHP.

That disparity could not be any more pronounced. It says from the left-hand side he was producing at MVP levels in the Southern League, and from the right-hand side he was producing at Luis Hernandez levels.

If it was .900 vs RHP, and .700 vs LHP... I would want him to continue batting as a switch hitter. With the disparity as pronounced as it is, I think it makes little sense for him to continue to bat from the right-hand side.

If he can not hit AA LHP from the right-hand side, it is hard to imagine him becoming overly profeicent in the near (18-24 month) future.

Since he is so strong from the left-hand side, I believe he would post more than a .566 OPS against LHP, if he batted against them from the left-hand side. It might only be a .650 OPS, but it would be an improvement.

He excels as a lefty, you want to maximize what he does well. If he only has to work on batting as a lefty, he should improve there as well.

You can't base it just on the stats. To say you see his stat-line and know that him continuing as a switch hitter is a bad decision is really big jump.

You've gotta rely on scouting in the lower minors. If the scouts feel that he can figure it out and that switch-hitting will be an asset for him in the future, then he should remain as a switch-hitter. If they feel he'll never figure out hitting lefties as a right-handed hitter, then he should give it up.

The overwhelming consensus from all the scouting reports I've read is that its still much too soon to consider giving up on him as a switch-hitter, and that's been re-iterated by both the Dodgers and Orioles scouting teams. Stats show a lot, but scouting shows more, especially in the lower minors.

And the stats don't even show he should definitely give up switch-hitting. Last year he was at a .833/.748 split, .816/.660 the year before, .930/.836 the year before that, and .712/1.287 his first year in the GCL. For his minor league career, he is at .880/.702, right in line with the numbers you said you would want him to continue on as a switch-hitter. You can't look at just one year, especially not when you're only talking about 108 at bats, that's an awfully small sample size.

[waroriole]

My arguement is that against AA pitching he was an abysmal right-handed hitter, a superior left-handed hitter, and I see little reason to believe that there will be vast change in that during the next 18-24 months. I believe that if he only batted from the left-hand side, he would improve there as well. I believe that the O's want to contend in 2011, and that Bell figures to be part of that team. If you want to contend in 2011, you need to get as much ML experience as possible for him in 2010. I would prefer to maxamize his existing strength, vs. spending time working on his weakness.

These stats are a reason to have him continue switch hitting.

And the stats don't even show he should definitely give up switch-hitting. Last year he was at a .833/.748 split, .816/.660 the year before, .930/.836 the year before that, and .712/1.287 his first year in the GCL. For his minor league career, he is at .880/.702, right in line with the numbers you said you would want him to continue on as a switch-hitter. You can't look at just one year, especially not when you're only talking about 108 at bats, that's an awfully small sample size.

[Mackus]

You are misrepresenting the arguement.

In your first sentence, you state that I am saying that by looking at his stat-line, it is a bad decision to keep using him a switch-hitter.

You might look at this as semantics, but that is not my arguement.

My arguement is that against AA pitching he was an abysmal right-handed hitter, a superior left-handed hitter, and I see little reason to believe that there will be vast change in that during the next 18-24 months. I believe that if he only batted from the left-hand side, he would improve there as well. I believe that the O's want to contend in 2011, and that Bell figures to be part of that team. If you want to contend in 2011, you need to get as much ML experience as possible for him in 2010. I would prefer to maxamize his existing strength, vs. spending time working on his weakness.

However, just because those are my opinions, that does not mean I necessiarly believe it to be a 'bad' decision to have him continue to switch-hit.

As you illustrated, he has had some past-success. Just because I discredit the likely-hood of him improving, does not mean I do discredit the opinions of the scouts. I completely agree with you that you have to use both.

Ok, you're right that its probably just semantics, but when the only thing we have to communicate is words, semantics can be important. And saying "it makes little sense" to continue switch hitting is pretty similar to saying it is a "bad decision" to have him continue switch hitting.

I think you're probably being a bit too hasty in saying that he can't improve in the next two years as a switch hitter. Especially when your main point of evidence is just over 100 at bats. That is an infinitesimally small sample size.

If he struggles next year at AAA again against lefties to this degree, and the total sample we are looking at is 200 to 300 at bats, then it becomes a more reasonable argument to say it may be time to stop switch-hitting. But I think its pretty much equally as likely that he gets back near his career numbers before this season with a 725-750 OPS against LHP as it is that he struggles so much that we have him stop switch-hitting.

[murrayfan420]

You are misrepresenting the arguement.

In your first sentence, you state that I am saying that by looking at his stat-line, it is a bad decision to keep using him a switch-hitter.

You might look at this as semantics, but that is not my arguement.

My arguement is that against AA pitching he was an abysmal right-handed hitter, a superior left-handed hitter, and I see little reason to believe that there will be vast change in that during the next 18-24 months. I believe that if he only batted from the left-hand side, he would improve there as well. I believe that the O's want to contend in 2011, and that Bell figures to be part of that team. If you want to contend in 2011, you need to get as much ML experience as possible for him in 2010. I would prefer to maxamize his existing strength, vs. spending time working on his weakness.

However, just because those are my opinions, that does not mean I necessiarly believe it to be a 'bad' decision to have him continue to switch-hit.

As you illustrated, he has had some past-success. Just because I discredit the likely-hood of him improving, does not mean I do discredit the opinions of the scouts. I completely agree with you that you have to use both.

The part where you lose me is where you say "I see little reason to believe he'll improve in 18-24 months". Well... how can you reach that conclusion? You've never seen him play, and appear to be disregarding his competance as a righty in years past. It seems the reason you DON'T think he'll improve is his crappy hitting in 108 at-bats this year.

[AmsO]

You can't base it just on the stats. To say you see his stat-line and know that him continuing as a switch hitter is a bad decision is really big jump.

You've gotta rely on scouting in the lower minors. If the scouts feel that he can figure it out and that switch-hitting will be an asset for him in the future, then he should remain as a switch-hitter. If they feel he'll never figure out hitting lefties as a right-handed hitter, then he should give it up.

The overwhelming consensus from all the scouting reports I've read is that its still much too soon to consider giving up on him as a switch-hitter, and that's been re-iterated by both the Dodgers and Orioles scouting teams. Stats show a lot, but scouting shows more, especially in the lower minors.

And the stats don't even show he should definitely give up switch-hitting. Last year he was at a .833/.748 split, .816/.660 the year before, .930/.836 the year before that, and .712/1.287 his first year in the GCL. For his minor league career, he is at .880/.702, right in line with the numbers you said you would want him to continue on as a switch-hitter. You can't look at just one year, especially not when you're only talking about 108 at bats, that's an awfully small sample size.

I'm in agreement that we should rely on scouting in the debate whether to switch hit or not, but no way he can be relied on to hit from the right side next year in Baltimore. I'd go a step further and say that he shouldn't be learning to hit lefties from either side at the major league level.

If he goes 3-5 against a lefty this week I might change my mind.

[waroriole]

No, those stats are reason for some encouragment about his future prospects from that side of the plate.

What the stats are currently telling you, is that at the AA level he is currently overwhelmed from that side. This is a player nearly ready for the bigs... you have to decide do you spend time building up his current liability or maximize his existing strength?

I will not call it a mistake for him to continue to switch-hit, but I do know what my preference would be.

They also are telling me that this is a small sample size, and that it might be better to look at his entire minor league stats as a RH. You may be right that he will eventually need to become a LH, but I just don't think you can make that argument by looking at the stats. The stats may say that he is a 400 OPS guy batting RH, but the coaches may see that he is even worse when batting LH against lefties. This really isn't something that most of us could have an informed opinion on, because we just don't know what he is like on the other side.