Should Avery and Hoes repeat Delmarva?

[DrShorebird]

Doc,

What are your impressions of L.J. Hoes thus far? I remember his high school career here in DC, and was impressed with his performance last year. What do you think are causing his struggles at Delmarva, and do you see him improving?

Thanks as always.

LJ Hoes does not seem as raw as Xavier Avery. I think LJ has a good chance to move up to Frederick, but in my opinion, that would not be certain. LJ has shown focus and improvment as the season wears on. I see no fundamental flaws that need correction. He is still very young, but to me, all signs are good for his baseball future. I won't try to project just how good he will be this year, but we should all have a better indication a year from now. The ML brass are happy with what they see and they can judge much better than I.

[mikezpen]

I've never seem them, but I'm sure that Hobgood, Avery and Hoes have great talent because Jordan's staff has done a very good job in his tenure.

I just feel it's mistake to draft HS kids like that in the high rounds when your organization is really hurting for talent, particularly when you draft as high as the Os have been drafting. College players with proven track records are more available to you and I feel you should go that route-not reach.

If we'd been drafting 20th then maybe it's different-or if we're in the 8th or 9th round. Then take a shot or two at raw talents.

My problem isn't with these three kids because I know nothing about them. My problem is philosophical. When you have a chance to get premium talent with a track record-go the safest route and grab it.

[TheBandit]

I've never seem them, but I'm sure that Hobgood, Avery and Hoes have great talent because Jordan's staff has done a very good job in his tenure.

I just feel it's mistake to draft HS kids like that in the high rounds when your organization is really hurting for talent, particularly when you draft as high as the Os have been drafting. College players with proven track records are more available to you and I feel you should go that route-not reach.

If we'd been drafting 20th then maybe it's different-or if we're in the 8th or 9th round. Then take a shot or two at raw talents.

My problem isn't with these three kids because I know nothing about them. My problem is philosophical. When you have a chance to get premium talent with a track record-go the safest route and grab it.

We have so much pitching talent that was college drafted near the majors that we have to take high school players to slow down the progression. You want the talent to come in waves and the first wave has come.

Someone did a study, and I will post it if I find it that it is no safer to draft a high schooler than it is a college player. If you are looking for immediate help offensively, the only holes we have are 1B and 3B with everything else locked up (SS too if you don't consider Blake Davis capable... but I do). Brandon Snyder should be up next year and could be our 1B of the future with Josh Bell being our 3B of the future. Our team next year could have 7 of 8 starting players under the age of 27. Our rotation could potentially be entirely under 27 and our bullpen is even pretty young.

Unless a big hitter who is only a year away falls in our lap, there was no reason not to go after the high school players. They have time to develop with the talent that is near the MLB level now.

[BringBackMagic]

First of all, BRod51, I owe you an apology for the harsh tone my post seemed to have when I re-read it this morning. I humbly apologize for that unintended tone. I did not intend to criticize, but only question. When I re-read my post, it read harsh and critical, but that was just my poor choice of words.

Secondly, I believe if all the posters evaluating Avery's performaance from box scores alone would have the opportunity to watch this young man play, they would probably feel that he may have a good baseball FUTURE, but at this point in time he may not be ready for Delmarva, let alone Frederick. Avery is not yet at the level of Matt Angle or Danny Figeroa when they reported to Frederick.

Avery needs to have someone hit him 50 fungoes every day for a year or so to learn where the ball is heading and to learn how to get a jump on the ball. It is little good to be fast, if one is running in the wrong direction or frozen on the spot trying to figure out which way to run. Kyle Hudson is just as fast as Avery and he has learned which way to run and gets an OK read of the ball from the start. (See the Hudson - Hoes interview posted on this forum)

For those of you who feel Avery's power will develop later should watch his swing. Often, he drops his hands and slaps the ball using mostly his wrists. This is fine if you can get away with it at higher levels, but it doesn't translate into power even when one gets stronger. Rarely does Avery swing through the ball (at this time) When he does swing through the ball, he has good bat speed, but I bet they may change his batting style.

As for base stealing, Avery has to learn HOW to steal. Yes, he is fast and at this level he can get a few stolen bases on sheer speed and poor throws by low-A level catchers, but he hasn't YET learned the skill techniques of stealing bases. Compare his style to Joe Mahoney who may have about 29 steals out of perhaps 30 attempts.

Delmarva has been humbling to Avery. He came in with a swagger, but appears sheepish now when coming to the plate. He is RAW! He may have a good baseball future, but sending him to Frederick next year could ruin his confidence completely.

Avery is a decent young man who deserves to have his talents honed and not be rushed prematurely. He can be taught what he needs to learn.

Wow. I haven't seen such an extensively laid out indictment of Xavier Avery before.

I know he's raw, incredibly raw. And I know he has struggled at times this year. But I think it's really saying something about his immense potential if at 19 years old, after skipping two levels, Avery has been able to put up decent, if unspectacular and inconsistent numbers this season.

While I'm not going to blast the FO for pushing him to Delmarva so quickly instead of letting him go through the instructional program for the first half of the season and then play CF for Aberdeen this season, I do wonder whether or not that would have been a better course for such a raw talent. On the other hand, you can always say that in-game experience is always better then hitting in a cage every day and shagging flies.

I have a feeling that whatever they do, there is going to be criticism from some on each side. Nonetheless, I'm eager to see Avery develop.

[mikezpen]

Bandit, when the Os drafted Avery and Hoes, they didn't have Bell yet and Snyder was still at Frederick.And at that time, Reimold hadn't shown the promise he's showing now.He was in the early stages of a so-so season at Bowie.

I understand your idea about not having everybody come up at once.But the Orioles needed virtually an entire rotation as this season dawned. The more college-seasoned pitchers they could rush up to Baltimore for a look see, the better off they were.And let's be honest, we certainly haven't settled the starting pitching rotation even now.

Once the team is more established, then they should draft with the idea of creating a string of guys that will mature at various times in the manner you suggest. But we aren't there yet.

[TheBandit]

Bandit, when the Os drafted Avery and Hoes, they didn't have Bell yet and Snyder was still at Frederick.And at that time, Reimold hadn't shown the promise he's showing now.He was in the early stages of a so-so season at Bowie.

I understand your idea about not having everybody come up at once.But the Orioles needed virtually an entire rotation as this season dawned. The more college-seasoned pitchers they could rush up to Baltimore for a look see, the better off they were.And let's be honest, we certainly haven't settled the starting pitching rotation even now.

Once the team is more established, then they should draft with the idea of creating a string of guys that will mature at various times in the manner you suggest. But we aren't there yet.

They were drafted in 2008. We had Adam Jones who will be here for quite awhile giving Avery plenty of time to develop. We had Roberts and planned on resigning him, so Hoes has 3+ more years of development. The corners weren't being worried about for next year because Mora had an option and Scott Moore was suppose to work out at first or resign Huff if he was playing well.

Other than that, we just drafted Matusz before them, we had Tillman, Hernandez, Berken, Bergesen, Patton, and Arrieta. Only Tillman was a high school guy of that group and all were pressing for the majors (Patton had surgery last year) for the following year. Behind them, there's another wave of Erbe, Spoone, Britton, and to an extent Liz. The pressing need for young college-seasoned pitchers to get here sooner wasn't there nor is it there now.

You also said you were talking as a philosophy it doesn't make sense and weren't singling out Avery or Hoes.

If you remember, there were plenty of people calling for Tillman and Bergesen to begin the year in the rotation with their spring training outtings. It was the Orioles front office that gave them a little more time.

College doesn't fast track. Beato, Bascom, Arrieta are good examples of that. Arrieta is taking 3 years the others are taking longer.

[alexei606]

Gotta be a little concerned about Doc's scouting report on Avery. I think the offense will come around eventually but the defense worries me. I think in most cases judging and reading balls off the bat is an instinctual talent more than a learned one. Not saying he can't improve but I find Doc's opinion worrisome for Avery ever developing into a top flight defender.[/QUOTE]

IIRC, there were scouting reports that stated that Avery was going to be a LF due to some of these same concerns outlined by Doc. For that matter, I also remember Stockstill stating that Hudson needed to play more in CF, so, it would seem to me that Avery should stay at Delmarva and Hudson should go to Frederick next year to help with both players development. No reason to push Avery since he is quite raw but also quite young and it is also good to see what Hudson can do (more power would be nice).

[BRob51]

First of all, BRod51, I owe you an apology for the harsh tone my post seemed to have when I re-read it this morning. I humbly apologize for that unintended tone. I did not intend to criticize, but only question. When I re-read my post, it read harsh and critical, but that was just my poor choice of words.

Secondly, I believe if all the posters evaluating Avery's performaance from box scores alone would have the opportunity to watch this young man play, they would probably feel that he may have a good baseball FUTURE, but at this point in time he may not be ready for Delmarva, let alone Frederick. Avery is not yet at the level of Matt Angle or Danny Figeroa when they reported to Frederick.

Avery needs to have someone hit him 50 fungoes every day for a year or so to learn where the ball is heading and to learn how to get a jump on the ball. It is little good to be fast, if one is running in the wrong direction or frozen on the spot trying to figure out which way to run. Kyle Hudson is just as fast as Avery and he has learned which way to run and gets an OK read of the ball from the start. (See the Hudson - Hoes interview posted on this forum)

For those of you who feel Avery's power will develop later should watch his swing. Often, he drops his hands and slaps the ball using mostly his wrists. This is fine if you can get away with it at higher levels, but it doesn't translate into power even when one gets stronger. Rarely does Avery swing through the ball (at this time) When he does swing through the ball, he has good bat speed, but I bet they may change his batting style.

As for base stealing, Avery has to learn HOW to steal. Yes, he is fast and at this level he can get a few stolen bases on sheer speed and poor throws by low-A level catchers, but he hasn't YET learned the skill techniques of stealing bases. Compare his style to Joe Mahoney who may have about 29 steals out of perhaps 30 attempts.

Delmarva has been humbling to Avery. He came in with a swagger, but appears sheepish now when coming to the plate. He is RAW! He may have a good baseball future, but sending him to Frederick next year could ruin his confidence completely.

Avery is a decent young man who deserves to have his talents honed and not be rushed prematurely. He can be taught what he needs to learn.

No worries Doc, I know you're a good guy. I appreciate that you would have a much better feel for Avery, having seen him and everything, than most of the posters here that have seen him once or never. Again, I was just going by his numbers, which often don't tell the whole story. Do you think it would be beneficial to him to play at a higher-level where he can't get away with swinging with his wrists and just running instead of stealing?

[DrShorebird]

That's a good question. Good coaches seem to get the best responses from their players using different, but appropriate strategies, for each, depending on the individual.

Xavier is young and used to be on top with out being really challenged. It may be that he has lost much of his "swagger" aand is dodubting his abilities for the first time. He could be fragile enough that more challenge may harm him. On the other hand, as you suggest, he could react to the challenges and learn more quickly. I wish I knew, but more importantly, I trust that the ML FO knows what is best for Avery. We will see next year. My uneducated quess is that I would take the conservative route and have him repeat Delmarva .. for his best long-term development. Life is full of choices and quesses and we don't get a chance to try again very often. I hope it works out best for everyone.

By the way, thanks for understanding that my remarks were not as harsh as they read. If we were having a couple of beers, and I made those comments in an inquisitive tone, that is how they were intended. But when I read them cold the next morning they could be read with a criticial tone, not as intended.

[Gurgi]

Kind of strange that you would consider LJ Hoes 'not as raw' with his what? Sub .600 OPS?

Meanwhile Avery is skirting around a .700 OPS... seems like he's been much more impressive despite not having the "refinement" of Hoes. I was much more excited about Hoes coming into the season, but he's shown none of what he did last year.

There both 19 and playing in a league with lots of 21-23 year olds. I think we let them play next year at delmarva and if they show amazing improvement at the allstar break then they can get moved up. I really want to see the kids excell and get that swagger back before going to Frederick.

Rowell in hindsight should of repeated Delmarva that second year. His confidence seems shattered now.

[DrShorebird]

Kind of strange that you would consider LJ Hoes 'not as raw' with his what? Sub .600 OPS?

Strange perhaps. I am not referring to stats. I am referring to all around play. If stats were the all determining factor, then teams coculd save a lot of money by not sending scouts to games. Yet, at every ML game I go to, there are several scouts sitting in the stands behind home plate. They take copius notes. They recognize levels of skills that don't appear as numbers.

[alexei606]

Strange perhaps. I am not referring to stats. I am referring to all around play. If stats were the all determining factor, then teams coculd save a lot of money by not sending scouts to games. Yet, at every ML game I go to, there are several scouts sitting in the stands behind home plate. They take copius notes. They recognize levels of skills that don't appear as numbers.

Yep, and it is even more important in the MiLs to see these guys play. Thanks for your scouting report on Avery - I'm not surprised because others have said pretty much the same. I think that both should repeat - although Hoes would be the one that might be able to handle the promotion IMOP.

[TheBandit]

That's great but stats DO matter. How can a guy be more refined if he can't hit as well, doesn't draw as many walks and hits for less power?

His mechanics are much better, less holes in his swing, and shows better instincts. What he needs to work on his patience, pitch recognition, and adding more muscle onto a developing frame.

This is how stats DON'T matter. Why do you think players get promoted when they have, stat wise, a bad season? Stats tell a certain part of the story, but the main part of the story is told by watching the player. It is probably why Billy Rowell may still get promoted to AA next year. His stats are bad, but if his growth at his new position shows and his bat made the right corrections at the end then he will be in Bowie.

[Mackus]

That's great but stats DO matter. How can a guy be more refined if he can't hit as well, doesn't draw as many walks and hits for less power?

Stats do matter, but in the minor leagues, and especially the lower minors, scouting is a FAR more important and reliable way of judging talent.

[TheBandit]

I don't know how many guys are getting promoted with a sub .600 OPS and how many of them are successful at higher levels.

Besides, most of Hoes promise coming into the year had to do with his pitch recognition and patience and he's shown none of that this year. I'm predicting bust and I don't care how premature that is.

Think whatever you want, but pretending to be a more informed fan because you read a stat sheet is irresponsible. Today's fans follow the stat sheets of the minors, but the informed fans read the scouting reports, interviews about, and interviews with the players along with watching the player play to make their judgements.