Strasburg Watch

[zff4]

Imagine the eyes looking at this situation.

The Nats, not entirely a successful MLB relocation experiment, coming off a league worst 59-102 (.366) record last season and with declining attendance mirroring their woes, are gazing with sad eyes made baggy and red by fears of insolvency.

Agent Scott Boras, looks lovingly with the narrow eyes of a Tazmanian Devil gazing at an already dead carcass he is soon to drag to his dank warren. Make no mistake the carcass is the amateur draft system that long ago abandoned any pretense at mitigating the inequities it was meant to salve.

Mr. Boras means to wave that maggoty carcass in the face of MLB, the Lerners, and anyone who disagrees that the draft is the first step of indentured servitude for talented young men who should be paid according to their present, not future worth.

The Nats cannot afford Strasburg. They cannot afford to lose him. There is no "win" in this for them and for a predator like Boras who strikes at the jugular of a team's weakness, there is no easier victim than the Nats.

Let's look at Mr. Boras' first rounders:

Stephen Strasburg

Donovan Tate (Padres unsigned)

Grant Green (A's unsigned)

Dustin Ackley (Mariners unsigned)

Kentrail Davis (Brewers supplemental unsigned)

Jacob Turner (Tigers unsigned)

Mr. Boras famously doesn't begin to negotiate until the day of the deadline - why should an alligator chase you if you're swimming in his direction?

The Nats will use the $10.5 million for Mark Prior as a negotiating benchmark. Mr. Boras, whose apples and oranges are all greenbacks in the same bank, will use Daisuke Matsuzaka's $52 million contract in the heels of his $51 million posting fee. "Let's find the middle ground between 10 million and 100 million shall we?" innocently asks Mr. Boras. "Ah, $50 million, now shall we begin?"

The Nats are being asked if they prefer to be disemboweled or drawn and quartered. No team in the league wants a precedent of a "middleground" $25 million signing bonus/contract for a draftee and the howling of the Nat fans when the Lerners walk away will not echo in the MLB offices where sighs of relief will be heard.

My guess is $20 million might get it done, but in the end, it won't happen.

[alexei606]

$20 million would be a lot for Strasburg to walk away from at age 22 and no professional experience at all. That said, I wouldn't put it past the Lerners sticking with Priors number - they are cheap (I know that is still a lot of cash - but not really for this kid with his ceiling of a high end TOR)! The Lerners should sign him and get him ready for next year's ML rotation.

If the Lerners don't come up with the moola, here's my prediction: Boras will announce that Strasburg has signed with a Japanese team for close to if not the same amount as offered by the Nats with a player option for more years and bigger bucks. Boras than will state that Strasburg will be a FA after his year in Japan (BTW, the second best professional baseball league and better than the Minors) and will be looking at more than Matsuzaka money (remember, no posting fee to the Japanese team). I expect that Boras is particularly working this angle to also beat back hard slotting and rookie caps proposed by MLB.

Strasburg if healthy will have a dominate year and there is a chance that his FA claim will work. Even if he isn't declared a FA, he will have the same leverage as a FA since he can always go back to Japan as a huge star and a big coup for the NPB. This also will be pay back for the Red Sox signing of Tazawa. Either way, MLB owners lose, because the MLB draft will be done and no longer will young talent be artificially so cheap. If I were the other owners, I would be leaning hard on the Lerners producing (even if it meant putting in $s) so their nightmare scenario does not play out. Strasburg will not be "precedent" setting signing IMOP. The reason is that no talent is comparable (and that means you Harper) to match a high TOR starter who throws 100 with command now.

As for the Orioles, if Strasburg is available in the draft - it is to me a no brainer that you draft and sign him at FA price and years and stick him immediately in the ML rotation. If he is declared a FA - no chance for the Orioles, expect the NYY and Boston to go hard for him. I would probably go in to try to drive up their price to get him.

[Mackus]

I'd offer something in the $12-15M range. That will get him signed. If he walks away from that, he's an idiot.

[PBR Street Gang]

I'd offer something in the $12-15M range. That will get him signed. If he walks away from that, he's an idiot.

Ditto. The Nats should have been negotiating through the press on this one the whole time. Common sense was on their side.

[MisterCrash]

0% chance he signs if the Nats offer 12 mil and say "Take it or leave it".

[zff4]

I'd offer something in the $12-15M range. That will get him signed. If he walks away from that, he's an idiot.

I'm assuming you say that from a Nats perspective. From an O's perspective, do you offer 20?

[Nigel Tufnel]

I always thought the Nats had plenty of money - that it's not so much that they can't afford Strasburg as that they just don't want to give that kind of record money to a draftee. But the OP mentioned fears of insolvency - is that accurate?

[MisterCrash]

They already have the worst viewership of any team in the majors and have very low attendance. If they go two years in a row without signing their #1 draft picks, ESPEICALLY one has high profile as Strasburg (who is pretty much the most high profile draftee in a a decade), there's got to be a huge concern.

If I were the Orioles I'd start at $15 million and slowly work my way up with Boras. I wouldn't say no to $25 mil.

[Mark Carver]

They already have the worst viewership of any team in the majors and have very low attendance. If they go two years in a row without signing their #1 draft picks, ESPEICALLY one has high profile as Strasburg (who is pretty much the most high profile draftee in a a decade), there's got to be a huge concern.

If I were the Orioles I'd start at $15 million and slowly work my way up with Boras. I wouldn't say no to $25 mil.

Their share of the revenue from MASN is not dependent on the TV viewership. They get equal amount as the Orioles.

[Mackus]

Their share of the revenue from MASN is not dependent on the TV viewership. They get equal amount as the Orioles.

I thought it was 60/40 for the O's?

[Mark Carver]

I thought it was 60/40 for the O's?

That maybe ownership, but the last 2 years, both teams got equal revenue.

MASN is approaching the end of its fourth season and has "overcome early growing pains but still faces challenges -- low ratings and complaints by [Nationals] fans -- to better establish itself" in Baltimore and DC, according to Jeff Barker of the Baltimore SUN. MASN this year paid both the Orioles and Nationals $26M, and for the Orioles, who own the network, the net is "fulfilling its goals of televising both teams' games while providing the franchises predictable revenue in good economic times and bad." Orioles President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail: "It's important to have a steady stream of revenue that you can count on going into the future that's substantial. It's unlike other revenues that rise and fall." Barker notes MASN's advocates "believe the arrangement protects the clubs from situations where -- after a bad year on the field -- they would have to negotiate at a disadvantage with networks vying for broadcast rights." MASN is available in 5.2 million HHs and "has doubled its advertising" from '07. At the All-Star break, Nationals games on the net were averaging a 0.39 rating, "worst by far" in MLB. TV sports analyst & consultant John Mansell: "I do think it (the ratings) will turn around once the team starts winning." But Mansell said that the Nationals "face a longer-term issue -- rights fees." Mansell: "If you look at rights fees, they are generally based on the size of the market. And the [DC] market is really much larger than the Baltimore market, so they ought to be getting a bigger rights fee"

source, dated 9/26/2008.

[geschinger]

Put an offer on the table at ~7m and he signs. Boras is brilliant; he's also not a braindead. He won't turn down that kind of coin. The question is in the game of chicken do the Nats swerve. Personally I hope not as giving in to Boras demands makes things worse for the rest of baseball going forward.

[alexei606]

I'd offer something in the $12-15M range. That will get him signed. If he walks away from that, he's an idiot.

Isn't that what Boswell said? Here's Keith Law's opinion:

Matt (DC)

Your prediction for how the Strasburg-Nationals negotiations will play out Monday night, please.

Keith Law

(2:26 PM)

He'll sign, $18-20 million just before midnight. We might not even hear about it till 12:15-12:30.

and

Samantha (DC)

Do you think 18-20 million for Strasburg is too much? Seeing what happened to Zimmermann makes me think it's too much.

Keith Law

(3:21 PM)

No, I think it's a lot less than what he'd get on the open market.

Here's his answer on Boswell and getting the compensation pick next year:

Brian (Alexandria)

Boswell makes my head hurt. He set his Strasburg ceiling at $12-15M which is debatable. But it's this statement about what happens if Strasburg is not signed that makes me shake my head "the Nats will get the No. 2 overall pick next year which (after a lot of studyiung) is probably worth 90-to-95% as much as No. 1 overall. "Oh, but Strasburg is special. He's the best ever." So was Ben McDonald."In what universe will the 1A in 2010 be worth 90-95% of Strasburg?

Keith Law

(3:27 PM)

The expected value of the second pick is something like half the expected value of the first pick. Getting that pick as compensation for not signing Strasburg is like having your car stolen but finding out they left the cup holder in your garage.

I stand by my analysis that Strasburg won't walk away from $20 million but the Lerners may play cheap and lose out. This is a high end TOR guy now and I agree with Law and others that he would make a lot more on the open market and that Japan is a viable alternative if the price is not right. BTW, love Law's analogy about the stolen car and cup holder to Strasburg and the 1A pick.

[alexei606]

They already have the worst viewership of any team in the majors and have very low attendance. If they go two years in a row without signing their #1 draft picks, ESPEICALLY one has high profile as Strasburg (who is pretty much the most high profile draftee in a a decade), there's got to be a huge concern.

If I were the Orioles I'd start at $15 million and slowly work my way up with Boras. I wouldn't say no to $25 mil.

Agree with this, and get him right into the rotation.

[twoBshorty]

Another thing to keep an eye on is all these rumors swirling that the Nats are planning on making a permanent GM announcement sometime after the Monday signing deadline. If they have decided to remove Rizzo's interim tag, then I suppose it doesn't really matter. But it appears Jerry DiPoto and Jed Hoyer are the other two on the short list, and if there were promises made in interviews about resource availability and spending on the draft, it's going to look terrible if they call one of those two up on Tuesday after letting Strasburg get away and ask them to take the job. "Oh, yes, we are absolutely committed to spending on player development, pay no attention to the fact that we haven't signed our first round pick in 2 years!"

Love Law's car theft analogy. I'm still laughing over here.