Wash. Times steps to the plate and tries to rank our prospects.

[TheBandit]

The younger a player is while putting up solid numbers in the minor leagues, the more projection he has left as his body develops and his skills are refined. If a player is 19 and succeeding in the majors, he has much more time and room to grow into a better player than one who is 24. Players in general follow a curve where most peak around the age of 27 or 28, when their physical attributes stop progressing. Not all guys follow this curve, but the vast majority of players start out raw, grow into better players in the middle of their careers, and then drop off as their bodies decline.

Age is most critical when we are talking about prospects because of the rapid development occurring in their bodies and skillsets. A player who succeeds at a minor league level at a younger age has a much higher likelihood of developing into a successful major league player than one who succeeds at the same level at a higher age. That's not a 100 percent guarantee, but there's a pretty strong correlation. Sorry if you think that's ageist or a bandwagon ideology, but it's pretty well backed up by things like facts.

So this doesn't mean that Matt Angle won't be a successful major league player, but the odds aren't in his favor and much of that has to do with the fact that he has not progressed past posting a low .700s OPS in high A at the age of 23. His ISO-P is a pathetic .058, and his body does not have much more room to develop. Because of his age, he is not likely to get much bigger or stronger or faster. Ever. As he advances in the minor leagues and his power numbers stay miniscule, he will likely see his walk rate and OBP decline as well. It happens all the time.

The bottom line is, if his performance was translated to the major league level right now he would be well below replacement level. Because of his age, he doesn't have a ton of room for improvement. He will get better than he is now, but not by much. At some point, a player becomes basically what they are going to be. Angle's not there yet, but likely pretty close. If he were performing this way at the age of 19, we would be able to say that he has much more room for improvement. Because he's 23, we can't.

If you want to continue to say that age is not a factor when evaluating prospects, go ahead. I won't argue with you any more.

Argue on.

You have boringly spent the past 10 minutes putting up a wall of text that tells me stuff I already know.

Matt Angle is a contact hitter who takes walks and steals bases. His OPS will be low since his slugging percentage will not have the home runs to beef it up. If you want an .800 OPS from him, it will never happen. He does play plus defense, he does bat lead-off, he does get on base at a high clip, and he has yet to fail at any stop so far on his path to the bigs. Is he a starting centerfielder? If he maintains his OBP in the high levels, he could get a look. Is he a reserve outfielder? He has the ability to play center which, generally, means you have the ability to play the other outfield positions. He could probably do that right now, but I couldn't tell you if he can hit yet. Once he shows he can hit AA pitching, it's only a matter of time before he reaches the majors in some sort of role.

Before you look at power iso again and decide a prospects fate, maybe you should look at the type of player they are. After that, go ahead and read some scouting reports which some can be found right on this site (how convenient).

This argument is going just like another one I had on here before where a guy was trying to tell me how bad LJ Hoes was because of his OPS at Delmarva. Quoting the same stat to me over and over is not going to convince me of anything.

[wickedwitch]

Pie's 19 year old year in Adv-A is meaningless when he's now clinging to the 25th spot on the roster begging for playing time some 5 years later.

That's a huge exaggeration.

[RVAbird]

Wow, this thread went into a totally different direction fast.

Forgive me if I derailed. But I think that the purpose of this thread was sort of to debate methodology on ranking and evaluating prospects. When I see someone proudly deny something that's true I have to comment.

I can see now that it's one of those arguments that won't end because reality takes a back seat to quips and pride. So now I will back out of the thread.

[Gurgi]

Forgive me if I derailed. But I think that the purpose of this thread was sort of to debate methodology on ranking and evaluating prospects. When I see someone proudly deny something that's true I have to comment.

I can see now that it's one of those arguments that won't end because reality takes a back seat to quips and pride. So now I will back out of the thread.

I was kinda hoping it would be a thread about where people would rank guys. Make their own list. Debate their own ideas.

Not dwell forever about Angle.

Angle has a decent chance to play in the majors at some point.

If Angle can do what he did in Frederick at 23 years old in Baltimore at 26 years then he will be valueable to someone.

OPS isnt everything. Sure it is a big deal but Angle was a IMPACT player last night. He forced the pitcher to keep an eye on him. Forcing an overthrow on pick off. He also stole a base and looked to cause a error at third because he would of had to make a perfect play to get him at second.

Angle possibly can be a wonderful player giving the Orioles or some team two-five years of decent play.

[byrdz]

Wow, this thread went into a totally different direction fast.

"Wash Times takes a crack at our prospect rankings"

"Oh yeah, well check out the prices of tea in China."

[QBsILLEST1]

"Wash Times takes a crack at our prospect rankings"

"Oh yeah, well check out the prices of tea in China."

As ridiuclous of a post that that was.....It makes me wanna invest in some Chinese Tea....Whose down?!

[TakebackOPACY]

Argue on.

You have boringly spent the past 10 minutes putting up a wall of text that tells me stuff I already know.

Matt Angle is a contact hitter who takes walks and steals bases. His OPS will be low since his slugging percentage will not have the home runs to beef it up. If you want an .800 OPS from him, it will never happen. He does play plus defense, he does bat lead-off, he does get on base at a high clip, and he has yet to fail at any stop so far on his path to the bigs. Is he a starting centerfielder? If he maintains his OBP in the high levels, he could get a look. Is he a reserve outfielder? He has the ability to play center which, generally, means you have the ability to play the other outfield positions. He could probably do that right now, but I couldn't tell you if he can hit yet. Once he shows he can hit AA pitching, it's only a matter of time before he reaches the majors in some sort of role.

Before you look at power iso again and decide a prospects fate, maybe you should look at the type of player they are. After that, go ahead and read some scouting reports which some can be found right on this site (how convenient).

This argument is going just like another one I had on here before where a guy was trying to tell me how bad LJ Hoes was because of his OPS at Delmarva. Quoting the same stat to me over and over is not going to convince me of anything.

There are a lot of posters on the Orioles Hangout with a lot of different opinions and perspectives. There must have been some big differences between those two arguments considering Hoes is only 19.

[olehippi]

I was kind of surprised to see Widlansky buried at #50 and not rated. I guess he's not considered a legit prospect because of his age (24) but he was a 4-yr college guy. Not much power (6 HR) for a corner guy, but he ripped 29 doubles in only 305 AB's and would have led the Carolina League with a .349 BA and a .902 OPS if he had qualified with enough AB's.

[Frobby]

As to Matt Angle, he's definitely a prospect, albeit one with a limited offensive upside. Of course he is not nearly the prospect that Jones, Pie or even Reimold were. But he could turn into, say, Nyjer Morgan, who at age 24 was hitting .286/.328/.357 in the Carolina League, after hitting .255/.358/.337 in the Sally League the year before.

If I may borrow a few quotes from the prospect tracker:

From Hebner:

“He’s the best centerfielder in our organization. He played college so he’s a little more mature than these high school kids. He gets better reads on balls. He plays good centerfield but he also plays good left center and right center. He covers a lot of acres out there I tell you. The basket catch he made the other night was the best catch you’ll see all year. He’s a baseball player. He comes to the field and he knows what he has to do.”

From Matusz:

“You watch Angle, he plays so hard every game, runs so hard to every ball. He dives at the right situations. He judges balls really well and to have a guy like him in center field is awesome. He’s catching balls in right field and left field. You don’t see too many athletes like that in High-A. He’s got the best range against anyone I’ve played with or played against. He’s the best I’ve seen. Thank god he’s on my team, I love it.”

The guy can flat-out play major league CF defense, from everything I've heard and read. If so, holding down a major league job is feasible for him despite his lack of power. See Nyjer Morgan and many others like him.

[Enjoy Terror]

Unfortunately for Matt Angle, he's completely blocked in this organization. It's hard enough for a guy like Fiorentino or Montanez to make an impact with the Orioles now, I can't see how Angle has any shot whatsoever.

But I will counter my own statement by saying that prospect rankings dont account for how blocked a player is in their organization.

[weams]

Patton is eligible, but would be in the 15-20 range for me at this point.

Interesting list, still trying to digest it.

Actually, he has some MLB service time so for the sake of his rules...inelligible.