Who was the most suprising pick?

[Crazysilver03]

Tony, you're still going to do write ups on Britton & Matusz, right?

He is still finishing them. They will be out Thurs and Fri, but since we all know the #1 and #2, no reason to make polls about it.

The surprise pick has to be Coffee. Especially to people that dont follow the draft.

[Ruzious]

I voted for Coffey - but just barely over Waring. I'm surprised there's not even 1 vote for Waring in the 1st 49. I don't consider him a legit prospect.

[QBsILLEST1]

He is still finishing them. They will be out Thurs and Fri, but since we all know the #1 and #2, no reason to make polls about it.

The surprise pick has to be Coffee. Especially to people that dont follow the draft.

Yeah, I was surprised by the pick not because he didnt deserve to be there, but based off of Tony's past lists. That said though, if he was picked in the 1st round by us where he originally ould have been picked if not for the injury, hed be atleast as high as Hobgood, and possibly higher due to a higher ceiling(much more projectability).

Im pretty high on Coffey, you can teach someone to throw a slider or curve IMO pretty easily, it takes more to master the changeup, atleast for me itwas. Aside from that, Ive mentioned before, to me the fastball/changeup combo is the most devestating pitch combo of any, especially for an SP.

If you think about it, we dont have another one in the system like him, projectable lefty who can touch mid 90's(and will possibly sit in the mid 90's when all said and done) and uses an above average changeup as his primary weapon....

[LookinUp]

Coffey was clearly the biggest surprise. Having Waring at #9 and any of Joseph, Welty (who I think will be higher than many people expect), or Cowan at #10 and the list would have been pretty surprise free.

With all of the discrediting of the O's prospect lists going on here, I think a lot of people will be very impressed with the possibilities emerging from the next 10-20 prospects.

The one guy that I totally can't place is Drake. He could be anywhere from 12 to like 25, IMO. Maybe even lower. I just don't know.

[NCRaven]

I'd have to agree with those who said Coffey, mainly since he's coming off injury and has yet to play a minor league game.

I'm not surprised that Johnson wasn't in the top 10, but I hold him in higher regard than some. A place in the 10-12 range wouldn't surprise me at all. Like Bergesen, he may prove to be better than many pitchers around the minor leagues who were considered higher level prospects. But, he's certainly not a sure thing - if there are any.

[Jammer7]

For me, Coffey was very surprising at #9. Not because he may not have the talent to deserve it, but moreso that he hasn't thrown a pro pitch...or even a college one. He wasn't even a guy on anyone's radar until this spring...and then he has major surgery.

If he were a polished college guy who was a top 5 pick and missed the short-season due to contract holdouts...I'm more comfortable with giving him a high rank based on what his track record is against bigtime competition. I guess I found it most surprising given your past history of taking a chance on new kids only to have them falter the next season. Your past comments made me think...WOW!

I think you built a good case, and he certainly has talent and intangibles. But you're out on a bit of a limb on this one.

[hoosiers]

But you're out on a bit of a limb on this one.

Well, Jordan is the one out on a limb. A $1M limb.

I like the late risers who pop into the 90s as seniors. I believe BB and ZB were like this. I think these prospects tend to have less wear on their arms and a better feel for pitching than the guys popping 90s at HS juniors and then go out on the circuit and pitch to the radar guns (generalization).

[Ruzious]

What would he have to do for you to consider him a legit prospect?

Hit more like Widlansky did last season - get on base, get an OPS over .900, and don't strike out so much against kids.

[Tony-OH]

For me, Coffey was very surprising at #9. Not because he may not have the talent to deserve it, but moreso that he hasn't thrown a pro pitch...or even a college one. He wasn't even a guy on anyone's radar until this spring...and then he has major surgery.

If he were a polished college guy who was a top 5 pick and missed the short-season due to contract holdouts...I'm more comfortable with giving him a high rank based on what his track record is against bigtime competition. I guess I found it most surprising given your past history of taking a chance on new kids only to have them falter the next season. Your past comments made me think...WOW!

I think you built a good case, and he certainly has talent and intangibles. But you're out on a bit of a limb on this one.

No doubt. As most know, I try to have at least one splash in the top ten and he was my guy this year. Everything you say is true, but we'll have to wait and see whether it was a smart branch to get out on.

[Ruzious]

So you think Widlansky is a legit prospect but Waring is not. Is that a fair statement?

It'd be hard to make the case for him - given his age and the fact that he didn't put up good numbers until last season - not to mention his lack of home runs. But I am more interested in following his progress than following Waring's - just to see if he can continue the progress he made and if he can add more homerun power.

[LookinUp]

It'd be hard to make the case for him - given his age and the fact that he didn't put up good numbers until last season - not to mention his lack of home runs. But I am more interested in following his progress than following Waring's - just to see if he can continue the progress he made and if he can add more homerun power.

I'm certainly not sold on either Widlansky or Waring, but we're talking about our #10 and ?? prospects here. At this stage in the game, we're all looking at potential and hoping that they continue to develop.

Waring made a lot of steps this year. This progression indicate that he's trending in the right direction. If they indicated anything more, he'd be rated higher.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm certainly not sold on either Widlansky or Waring, but we're talking about our #10 and ?? prospects here. At this stage in the game, we're all looking at potential and hoping that they continue to develop.

Waring made a lot of steps this year. This progression indicate that he's trending in the right direction. If they indicated anything more, he'd be rated higher.

I agree with your bottom paragraph(computer wont let me bold anything). He made steps in the right direction this year, but we need to see more from him at higher levels before we conclude anything more. IMO 2010 is gonna either make him or break him. If he continues to hit for power in AA, thats when Im really gonna get excited about him because he seems to have ridiculous power.

[8istheman]

Hobgood at 6 IMO.

We haven't seen enough out of him to put in the top ten.

[QBsILLEST1]

Hobgood at 6 IMO.

We haven't seen enough out of him to put in the top ten.

Baeed off of pedigree alone he belongs there, not to mention what he brings to the table definitely warrants consideration for being atleast a top 10 talent. I couldnt imagine guys like Waring, and Mickolio being rated ahead of Hobgood, hes a 1st round talent, niether Waring or Mickolio are or were 1st round talents. He also has a better skill set than either Waring or Mickolio while they are both 23 or so and Hobgood is fresh out of HS. I understand people feel funny about him being a top 10 prospect, but all in all, hes a straight up better prospect than some of these guys. You dont need to see something from someone to be a top prospect, this is why Strasburg is going to be the #1 overall prospect coming up. He hasnt even thrown an official professional pitch yet (Instructionals and AFL do not count). What about Porcello when he was first drafted in 07, you wouldnt have him as a top 10 prospect in the system(If the O's had drafted him). I personally dont like this line of thinking. The idea that,"we havent seen enough from him yet" works when you get to guys who also have high ceilings. It doesnt work when you are comparing him to guys with lower ceilings and lower projections. WOuld you rather have a #2/3 starter or a power reliever?

[Ruzious]

I'm certainly not sold on either Widlansky or Waring, but we're talking about our #10 and ?? prospects here. At this stage in the game, we're all looking at potential and hoping that they continue to develop.

Waring made a lot of steps this year. This progression indicate that he's trending in the right direction. If they indicated anything more, he'd be rated higher.

Well yeah, if he was better, he'd be ranked higher...

I'm just not real impressed when the improvement includes striking out only 2.5 or so times per walk rather than 4 times per walk - and doing it mostly against guys who are younger than him.