2009 OH Top Prospect: - LHP Brian Matusz

[Tony-OH]

Really? Wow!

Head and shoulders over Tillman, Riley, Bedard, Penn, etc....?

I would love to hear more why you think this....(btw, not disagreeing with you just curious as to why because I think that is a very strong statement)

Bedard would be the closest guy, but even in the minors Bedard was a two pitch guy who had command problems at times. Now those two pitches were plus pitches with his slider being plus-plus, but none of those guys had as many pitches he could throw for strikes as Matusz does.

Penn came up through the minors when I was away a lot so I really never saw him pitch much until later in his career with the Orioles and then with Norfolk. I think a lot of Penn's problems are in his head and just might end up one of those guys who comes out of nowhere and ends up a decent ML pitcher when he's in his late 20's.

I like Tillman, but Tillman has those flyball tendencies I'm not fond of and when I saw him he was mainly a two-pitch guy at Bowie with some sketchy command of both. Tillman has age on his side so that helps me put away some of those concerns and think what he could be when/if it all clicks. the fact he improved his change this year bodes well for his future.

Riley was pretty special before the injuries but he had to fight himself as well. I always liked Matt, but he fell off the mound and was very immature on and off the mound.

Matusz not only brings the best command of these guys, but he brings the best assortment or pitches and tops it off with being very mature on and off the mound. There is nothing not to like. He's the Matt Wieters of pitching prospects for me. An absolute can't miss.

[Sports Guy]

Bedard would be the closest guy, but even in the minors Bedard was a two pitch guy who had command problems at times. Now those two pitches were plus pitches with his slider being plus-plus, but none of those guys had as many pitches he could throw for strikes as Matusz does.

Penn came up through the minors when I was away a lot so I really never saw him pitch much until later in his career with the Orioles and then with Norfolk. I think a lot of Penn's problems are in his head and just might end up one of those guys who comes out of nowhere and ends up a decent ML pitcher when he's in his late 20's.

I like Tillman, but Tillman has those flyball tendencies I'm not fond of and when I saw him he was mainly a two-pitch guy at Bowie with some sketchy command of both. Tillman has age on his side so that helps me put away some of those concerns and think what he could be when/if it all clicks. the fact he improved his change this year bodes well for his future.

Riley was pretty special before the injuries but he had to fight himself as well. I always liked Matt, but he fell off the mound and was very immature on and off the mound.

Matusz not only brings the best command of these guys, but he brings the best assortment or pitches and tops it off with being very mature on and off the mound. There is nothing not to like. He's the Matt Wieters of pitching prospects for me. An absolute can't miss.

Interesting...I kind of figured this was going to be your answer.

Its a shame about Riley...Had he stayed healthy and had Matusz's poise and maturity on the mound, he would have been a stud ML pitcher IMO.

[csgordos]

Really? Wow!

Head and shoulders over Tillman, Riley, Bedard, Penn, etc....?

I would love to hear more why you think this....(btw, not disagreeing with you just curious as to why because I think that is a very strong statement)

I'll take a stab at this, even though I am not Tony...But I would imagine that he is a true pitcher as opposed to just a thrower learning how to pitch. Add the mental aspect, approach, mechanics, and finally the number of pitches he controls would be the reason why as a minor league pitcher that maybe he would be the overall #1. Not that he will end up being better than Tillman eventually, but as a minor league pitcher.

Edit: This what happens when you post during lunch with patient questions, you start an answer and finish it 10 minutes later....sorry

[RedDevil00]

He's the Matt Wieters of pitching prospects for me.

That's how I think of him.

[QBsILLEST1]

That's how I think of him.

Yeah, I agree. Hes special because, at his age and level, its common for guys to have a couple of plus pitches, especially top prospects, but what sets him appart is his maturity,polish, pitchability and IMO execution. He simply knows how to pitch and posesses this strength that takes most people years and years of pitching in the ML to gain. Him coming up for me doesnt feel like Im watching a rookie pitcher make his ML debut, when I saw him making his ML debut, I felt like he was a 28 year old vet, that we traded for who came up from the minors due to a rehab assignment like Rich Hill but WAY better....

[ShaneDawg85]

I'm curious as to why Tillman was left off of the list. Was it because of his service time in the big leagues?

Had Tillman been on the list where would you have rated him?

[Crazysilver03]

I'm curious as to why Tillman was left off of the list. Was it because of his service time in the big leagues?

Had Tillman been on the list where would you have rated him?

Tillman pitched more than 50 innings in the major leagues, thus disqualifying him for prospects list.

Where he would be ranked is a good question though. Most people would answer 2, but I could see 3 with Britton still being 2.

[Tony-OH]

I'm curious as to why Tillman was left off of the list. Was it because of his service time in the big leagues?

Had Tillman been on the list where would you have rated him?

I would be in the minority most likely, but I would have him at #3.

[Frobby]

I would be in the minority most likely, but I would have him at #3.

Wow, that surprises me a bit. Is that because you've downgraded Tillman a bit, or is Britton just that good in your opinion?

By the way, in addition to Matusz's command, variety of pitches, poise,etc., his ability to dial his game up a notch at crucial moments was pretty apparent.

[Tony-OH]

Wow, that surprises me a bit. Is that because you've downgraded Tillman a bit, or is Britton just that good in your opinion?

By the way, in addition to Matusz's command, variety of pitches, poise,etc., his ability to dial his game up a notch at crucial moments was pretty apparent.

TT

I'm very, very big on guys who can get grounders AND miss bats. I like Tillman a lot though.

[Sports Guy]

TT

I'm very, very big on guys who can get grounders AND miss bats. I like Tillman a lot though.

Do you know what percentage of bats Britton missed this year?

[crawdad]

Do you know what percentage of bats Britton missed this year?

Not sure anyone keeps those stats in the minors. Pretty sure Tony is talking about the k rate as most use that phrase to mean that.

[Lucky Jim]

Wow, that surprises me a bit. Is that because you've downgraded Tillman a bit, or is Britton just that good in your opinion?

By the way, in addition to Matusz's command, variety of pitches, poise,etc., his ability to dial his game up a notch at crucial moments was pretty apparent.

TT

I'm very, very big on guys who can get grounders AND miss bats. I like Tillman a lot though.

Yeah, there's no doubt that Tony's putting a lot of emphasis on the GB profile. I would imagine that Tony's pretty much all alone rating Britton more highly than Tillman.

Here are their year-to-year stats:

Player Name	       Year	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	WHIPChris Tillman	MLB	2009	2	5	5.40	12	12	0	0	0	0	65	77	40	39	15	24	39	4	10.66	2.08	3.32	5.40	1.55Chris Tillman	Minor	2009	8	6	2.70	18	18	0	0	0	0	97	85	36	29	5	26	99	6	7.91	0.47	2.42	9.22	1.15Zach Britton	Minor	2009	9	6	2.70	25	24	0	0	0	0	140	123	64	42	6	55	131	21	7.91	0.39	3.54	8.42	1.27Chris Tillman	Minor	2008	11	4	3.18	28	28	0	0	0	0	136	115	53	48	10	65	154	10	7.63	0.66	4.31	10.22	1.33Zach Britton	Minor	2008	12	7	3.12	27	27	1	0	0	0	147	118	68	51	9	49	114	13	7.21	0.55	2.99	6.96	1.13Chris Tillman	Minor	2007	7	11	4.84	28	28	0	0	0	0	136	138	100	73	13	61	139	16	9.16	0.86	4.05	9.22	1.47Zach Britton	Minor	2007	6	4	3.68	15	15	0	0	0	0	64	64	33	26	1	22	45	4	9.05	0.14	3.11	6.36	1.35Chris Tillman	Minor	2006	3	3	5.28	10	5	0	0	2	1	31	34	21	18	4	20	45	4	9.98	1.17	5.87	13.21	1.76Zach Britton	Minor	2006	0	4	5.29	11	11	0	0	0	0	34	35	22	20	4	20	21	5	9.26	1.06	5.29	5.56	1.62

Now, big picture: Tillman is four months younger than Britton, put up numbers at least equal to Britton's at two levels above him. The reasoning would seem to be predicated on Tillman's FB and the fly balls it generates. Because Tillman's curve and change-up appear to be superior to Britton's. (According to most sources. Tony might obviously disagree.)

So, when you delineate differences, the distinction in Britton's favor is the GB rate. That's a lot of pressure on a single statistic, especially a statistic that is tough to project like GB rates. (Hard to project, in that retaining the ability to generate GBs against advanced bats is tough to do w/ any certainty.) I agree, in general, that the combination of K and GB rates is incredibly important. (It's why I was such a huge Spoone fan.) That said, the presence of that profile at A+ isn't enough for me, yet, to rank him ahead of Tillman, who has put up excellent, oddly similar, numbers at two whole levels beyond Britton.

Interesting, nonetheless.

[Tony-OH]

Not sure anyone keeps those stats in the minors. Pretty sure Tony is talking about the k rate as most use that phrase to mean that.

Yep, between the K rate and the fact very few guys squared up his pitches tells me he has a lot of late movement.