The Great Tillman Debate

[Moose Milligan]

Yeah, I just sorta meant figuratively. Guthrie's got much better stuff than Eaton ever had.

I think part of his problem is that the AL East has seen him a lot the past three years and his deteriorating fastball command has just compounded that.

He does have better stuff but...saying someone has better stuff than Adam Eaton isn't a stretch. You could find one of those old ladies who played pro ball in the WW2 days and they'd have better stuff than him...today. Is he still even in baseball?

As you touched on, his fastball command has deteriorated and IIRC he lost some velocity, too. Combine those two, it's bad news.

Hate to say it but I don't think he'll stay in the rotation throughout the year. IMO at some point we'll have Hernandez AND Tillman in the rotation at once.

[OrioleMagic]

I think that is what is very likely to happen.

With this thought of trading Guthrie in mind, how much could he bring on the trade market? Who out there needs him?

[Skeletor]

He does have better stuff but...saying someone has better stuff than Adam Eaton isn't a stretch. You could find one of those old ladies who played pro ball in the WW2 days and they'd have better stuff than him...today. Is he still even in baseball?

No, he's without a team.

[Frobby]

Guthrie's the new Eaton.

Which is sad. Hopefully he can turn it around.

Yeah, I just sorta meant figuratively. Guthrie's got much better stuff than Eaton ever had.

I think part of his problem is that the AL East has seen him a lot the past three years and his deteriorating fastball command has just compounded that.

Guthrie 2010 may be the new Rodrigo Lopez of 2006 (5.90 ERA), but let's not insult him by calling him the new Eaton. I have little doubt that Guthrie will get through 5+ IP in most games and leave us in a position where we aren't hopelessly out of the game. I just don't know if he can do anything more than that anymore. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Old#5fan]

With this thought of trading Guthrie in mind, how much could he bring on the trade market? Who out there needs him?

Right now I don't think he would bring much at all in a trade. Perhaps a low level mediocre minor league prospect.

[Moose Milligan]

With this thought of trading Guthrie in mind, how much could he bring on the trade market? Who out there needs him?

At this point I don't think you're looking for awesome value in return from Guthrie. I think you look for someone like Josh Bell and try to send Guthrie to the NL where he might be more appealing. I'd target a weaker division like the NL west where a little pitching will go a long way. Hell, the Diamondbacks are have Rowdy Roddy Lopez in camp, it's a legit possibility that he makes their staff. Gotta think they'd like Guthrie instead.

I think the best thing about trading Guthrie right now is that it'd allow another rotation spot to be filled by a young talent...it's not the talent we're getting in return. That's what you get for selling low but it's not like there aren't positives in store for us, outside of the little bit we'd get back.

[osfan83]

I will be shocked if more than 2 of our OD starters actually finishes the season without missing significant time. If history is any indicator we will need about 8 starters to get through the season, so I'm sure Tillman and Berken will both be in the rotation at some point this year.

[Sanfran327]

With this thought of trading Guthrie in mind, how much could he bring on the trade market? Who out there needs him?

Hindsight makes it easy to say we should have traded him to the Brewers in 2008. They would have paid a lot for him, IMO. They had already traded for Sabathia, and were on their way to the playoffs. Guthrie could have helped them out a great deal back then, and I am sure we could have gotten something nice for him. But that's hindsight.

[TyCobb]

Guthrie 2010 may be the new Rodrigo Lopez of 2006 (5.90 ERA), but let's not insult him by calling him the new Eaton. I have little doubt that Guthrie will get through 5+ IP in most games and leave us in a position where we aren't hopelessly out of the game. I just don't know if he can do anything more than that anymore. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

I think Guts could be a really good Closer. Great life on his FA. I wonder how hard Guts could throw if he was only going 1-2 inning. 95+mph?

[mweb]

Here's Neyer's take on the DH/CT competition.

Reasonable take.

[Frobby]

With this thought of trading Guthrie in mind, how much could he bring on the trade market? Who out there needs him?

I think he is roughly as valuable (maybe slighly more) than Rodrigo Lopez was when we traded him for Jim Miller and Jason Burch before the 2007 season. You'd probably get 2-3 prospects but nobody in another organziation's top 10.

[slappy12]

Well, almost every piece of "second hand info" said he is likely to be in the pen...yes, that's where I get a lot of that from...From respected sources. Then, when I saw him pitch last year, i saw exactly what the reports said...Spotty command, inconsistent secondary pitches, inability to go deep into games, etc....if you didn't see those things, that's on you but that's exactkly what happened.

And again, you don't seem to understand how important age is.

So then you think DT was lying to the media?

Well, you couldn't be more wrong..but thanks for your input.

I saw him pitch 5 times last year and one time he looked awful and 4 times he looked great, since I saw him pitch awful once, then I guess I have to assume you're right. I have to agree with orioole28, you do have a one track mind.

[Flosman]

Something that has not really been discussed much in this thread is beyond almost anything else this process is what really made the old Oriole way. The bottom line is DH and CT and all of the young guns were given things to be better at when last season ended. Guess what the evidence is DH has made the most progress. It sounds has if the brian trust of the O's are leaning towards rewarding him for that. It is the right thing to do IMO. What all of the other prospects see is results and progress matter. Back in the glory days guys like Boddiker, Davis, Tippy, even palmer talk about how hard it was to actually get to and stick with the club in Baltimore. They knew that it took talent and RESULTS. Guys that lead the international league in statistical categories the previous season were routinely sent back to AAA. This club is real close to being at the point where we will not be wasting service years when the pitcher has not truely mastered what is necessary to get the job done in the ML. Guess what all of the prospects know CT is a true Blue Chipper and they will see that even that guy is being held accountible for the things he can control. Looking back at DT's comments he was upset that Tillman had not improved on what held him back last season, But more importantly, he sounds as if he had lost his composure during his last outing. This was simply more than DT could stand from the sounds of it. Heck those actually at the game have said just that. The pitcher is able to control the pace of the game, even when he does not have his stuff or loses his command for a stretch or even an outing. Maybe we will actually get 5+ years of fully baked proformance out of pitchers instead of a couple right before they are FAs and a bunch of seasons where we see a guy that could be really good if he did this or that better.

[Hank Scorpio]

Guthrie 2010 may be the new Rodrigo Lopez of 2006 (5.90 ERA), but let's not insult him by calling him the new Eaton. I have little doubt that Guthrie will get through 5+ IP in most games and leave us in a position where we aren't hopelessly out of the game. I just don't know if he can do anything more than that anymore. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

I just mean he's essentially a placeholder, especially if Tillman starts the year in Norfolk.

It's a cumulative effect, having talented pitchers in AAA. If by the end of May Guthrie's ERA is north of 5 and Tillman is breezing along, I would expect them to make a decision.

[Moose Milligan]

Reasonable take.

Agreed. Good points.